-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
326
FXUS61 KAKQ 090828
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
428 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Another weak cold front pushes through the region late today
into Monday, with the front lingering near the southeast coast
through Tuesday. High pressure settles across the area on
Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 320 AM EDT Sunday...

Key message:

- A weak cold front will bring isolated to scattered
  showers/storms to the area with highest coverage along the
  coast.

- Highs will be around 90 for much of the area, mid 80s on the
  Eastern Shore and far northern locations.

Early this morning, a weak cold front is located just to the W of
Appalachia and is progressing toward the local area. Aloft, low
pressure is situated to the N of the Great Lakes with the associated
trough dipping into the upper Midwest. Today, the cold front will
cross the FA and the trough aloft will deepen into the eastern CONUS
as UL low pressure slides E. As the front passes through, there will
be a chance for showers and thunderstorms. However, a lack of
moisture will make it hard to get any substantial coverage of
precip. Moisture is a bit higher at the coast (highest in the SE),
so that`s where coverage will likely be highest. Have Chc PoPs
starting in the Eastern Shore and Northern Neck in the early-mid
afternoon hours with Schc elsewhere N of I-64. Showers/storms
progress to the SE in the late afternoon through early evening. Have
introduced 45-60% PoPs to portions of Hampton Roads and the lower
Eastern Shore given agreement between the 00z CAMs for this. After
sunset, precip should be limited mostly to NE NC and far SE VA.
Given lack of moisture, QPF should mostly be <0.1". Temps will be
able to rise to around 90 ahead of the front for much of the area,
but the Eastern Shore and far northern locations will be a few
degrees cooler. Winds become westerly today and will gust 20-25mph
during the afternoon. The front pushes offshore by tomorrow morning.
Lows will range from the upper 50s in the NW piedmont to the upper
60s in the SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 355 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Slightly cooler temps expected Monday and Tuesday with periods
  of isolated to widely scattered showers over the eastern half
  of the area on Tuesday.

A deepening trough over the eastern CONUS aloft will bring
relatively cooler temperatures and low humidity for the early week
period. Temperatures on Monday will struggle to reach 80 in far
northwestern locations. Most of the area will be in the low 80s. RHs
will drop into 35-40% range. Lows Mon night will be in the upper 50s
W of I-95 and low-mid 60s to the E. Lowest highs of the week look to
be Tues as the UL trough axis swings through the region. Highs will
be in the upper 70s for most, around 80 S of US-460. Regarding
chances for precip, models are still struggling to decide what to do
with the development of sfc low pressure offshore. The 00z
GFS/Canadian/NAM favor a weaker low that forms off the Carolina
coast and quickly moves out to sea, mostly leaving the local area
dry. The ECMWF, however, is hanging on to a slightly stronger low
closer to the FA and bringing precip to at least eastern portions of
the area Tuesday evening. Given general consensus of the former 3,
will lean more towards this solution. However, will maintain the
slight chance PoPs in the E on Tues.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 355 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Warming trend expected through the end of the week with highs
reaching the 90s by Thursday and Friday.

- Mostly dry Wednesday through Saturday with only a slight chance
for afternoon/evening showers and storms Saturday.

The UL trough will push offshore Wed and a ridge tries to fill
in behind it. Southerly sfc flow and increasing thicknesses
mean a warming trend through the end of the week. Highs on Wed
look to be in the mid- upper 80s, then getting into the low-mid
90s for Thurs/Fri. There is the potential for a cold front to
pass through on Saturday, but models disagree on the whether or
not that front actually makes it to the Mid-Atlantic. Kept the
blended guidance in there for PoPs, which yields slight chance
PoPs Saturday afternoon. Sat will probably be a few degrees
cooler than Friday, but still around 90 for most places.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 155 AM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 06z TAF period. BKN-OVC high
level clouds stretch across the FA tonight. These are expected
to partially scatter out early in the morning. However, weak
cold front passage will bring high and mid level clouds back.
Also, isolated to widely scattered showers/tstms are expected to
pass through the area in the afternoon through the late evening
hours. Light southerly winds tonight become westerly with gusts
to around 20kt during the afternoon. Lighter NW winds expected
behind the front.

Outlook: Dry/VFR conditions prevail through Monday evening.
Showers/tstms will again be possible along the coast late Monday
night through Tuesday evening.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 400 AM EDT Sunday...

Key messages:

- Southwest winds 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 knots today, shift
  to the NW this evening.

- Mainly sub-SCA conditions this week, increasing southerly flow
  late in the week ahead of the next front.

- Low rip current risk at all area beaches today and Monday.

Low pressure is located across NW PA early this morning, and
will track east today, pushing off the New England coast late in
the day. This will push a weakening cold front through the area
late this aftn through this evening. Winds are from the SW
around 10-15 kt with a few gusts to 20 kt this morning. Waves
are 1-2 ft, with 2-3 ft seas offshore. With the heat of the day,
expect the rivers to become a bit gusty from the W/SW in
advance of the cold front, while the east side of the Bay and
much of the ocean will have winds dropping off a bit by late
morning/early-mid aftn due to limited mixing. With the cold
front, winds shift to the NW and become more uniform in the
10-15 kt range with gusts to 20 kt. Locally higher winds will be
possible in any showers/storms later in the aftn through the
early evening hrs (and will be handled with SMWs as needed).
Overall, the surge later tonight looks too weak for any
headlines as pressure rises drop off from ~3 mb/6hr this
evening to 1-2 mb/6 hr overnight, along with minimal cold
advection. There may see a slightly better chance for marginal
SCA conditions late Mon night/Tuesday as the front and sfc low
pressure lingers along the SE coast as high pressure slowly
builds in from the NW. Latest wind probs are 20-30% for 18 kt
sustained winds over the Bay. At least expect to see elevated
NNE winds in the 10-15 kt range. Otherwise, high pressure builds
back in by midweek w/ sub- SCA conditions continuing. Another
weak low develops over the Southeast/Gulf of Mexico from mid-
late week with S winds increasing to 15-20 kt late Thursday
through Friday, potentially resulting in SCAs late in the week.
-- End Changed Discussion --




&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...AM
SHORT TERM...AM
LONG TERM...AM
AVIATION...AM
MARINE...LKB