-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
819
FXUS61 KALY 272324
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
724 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Muggy and breezy conditions continue for this Memorial
Day holiday with showers and thunderstorms increasing in coverage
through the afternoon into this evening. Storms will be capable of
producing heavy downpours and gusty winds. A few scattered showers
and storms and breezy winds return tomorrow into Wednesday before
the main cold front swings through the region resulting in cooler
and much less humid conditions for the remainder of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Severe thunderstorm watch has been cancelled. Rain with an
embedded rumble of thunder tracking through eastern NY and
western New England. Winds above 3000 feet did not translate to
the surface much if at all as the flow was parallel to the line
and there was not much low level thermal or moisture gradient to
enhance low level forcing and updraft strength. So gradient
winds were stronger than the convective downdraft winds. Locally
heavy rain possible this evening. Trailing convection
approaching the southern Adirondacks could still produce a
strong wind gust or nuisance localized flooding. Other scattered
convection in central/western NY and PA will track into our
region late this evening and around midnight but tend to weaken
and eventually dissipate. Some breaks in the clouds possible by
daybreak, allowing for some temperatures to reach dew points
resulting in some patchy fog.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
Thunderstorm activity including potential for heavy
downpours/high rainfall rates continues into this evening but
with instability diminishing, storms should end by 03 - 06 UTC.
The main cold front and cooler air mass lags well to our west so
still expecting muggy/humid conditions tonight. Clouds should
partially clear after Midnight as drier air moves in aloft but
forecast soundings suggest low-level moisture lingers beneath
the subsidence inversion so only expecting partial clearing
through sunrise. Between the lingering clouds and muggy air
mass, temperatures will stay mild tonight with lows only
dropping into the low to mid 60s in the valley with low to mid
50s in the hill towns and higher terrain.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Early stratus clouds from the overnight erodes away tomorrow
morning giving us a period of morning sunshine. With the main
parent low positioned in Quebec, the attendant parent trough
and sfc cold front will be tracking through western/central NY
through the morning with a warm air mass still place across
eastern NY and western New England. Guidance suggests 850hPa
isotherms will be able to reach +9C to +11C which combined with
morning insolation and deepening boundary layer mixing should
support afternoon temperatures reaching into well into the 70s
with even low 80s in the mid-Hudson Valley and parts of NW CT.
The sfc pressure gradient ahead of our approaching boundary
remains tight thanks to our 990hPa low positioned in southern
Canada so southwest to westerly winds should become breezy
through the afternoon with gusts reaching up to 25-30kts. Dew
points remain elevated as well in the upper 50s so morning sun
and the slightly humid air mass should contribute to generating
some weak instability in the afternoon (500 - 1000J/kg). Once
the main front and trough axis arrives from west to east,
expecting scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop and
spread eastward. Not expecting severe weather thanks to the
limited instability with thunderstorm activity diminishing after
sunset with the loss of daytime heating.

The upper level trough axis lingering overhead through Tuesday
night will support upslope driven showers and clouds along the
west facing slopes of the Taconics, southern Greens, northern
Catskills and western Adirondacks. Clearing skies in the valley
along with the incoming cooler and drier air mass behind the
front will support overnight lows dropping into the 50s with
even upper 40s in the higher terrain of the southern Greens and
southern Adirondacks.

Moist, cyclonic flow continues into Wednesday as upper level
troughing remains overhead. Westerly winds become northerly
through the afternoon as the trough axis and secondary cold air
front push through the region with scattered diurnally driven
showers developing thanks to the incoming sharp wind shift
boundary and cool pool moving in aloft (500hPa isotherms range -18C
to -19C). The better shower coverage looks displaced to our
south in PA/NJ where a more potent shortwave tracks through at
the base of parent trough. Areas south of I-90 could see a few
thunderstorms develop as mid-level lapse rates ahead of the
boundary steepen to 6.5 - 7C/km which looks to induce sufficient
instability before the boundary arrives in the afternoon.
Otherwise, temperatures trend cooler relative to the past few
days with daytime highs only reaching into the low to mid 70s
and much lower dew points in the low 50s to even 40s making it
feel much more comfortable. Overall lower dew points will likely
limit instability that can develop so severe weather is not
expected.

Clearing skies ensue Wednesday night with temperatures turning
even cooler in comparison to the previous few nights. Overnight
lows drop into the low to mid 40s in the higher terrain and hill
towns with low 50s in the valley thanks to radiational cooling
effects.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Temperatures remain cool through Thursday as northerly winds
behind the trough axis/secondary cold front boundary advect in a
cool and very dry air mass. The cold front from Wednesday looks
to stall somewhere in the mid-Atlantic and as a potent
shortwave from the Ohio Valley amplifies and digs eastward,
additional showers look to develop along the boundary. Current
trends keep the boundary far enough south that additional
showers that develop in response to the incoming shortwave also
remain to our south. However, given uncertainty we continue to
show low-end chance POPs but the forecast may trend drier if
the boundary stays to our south. Otherwise, northerly winds
Thursday turn a bit breezy in the wake of the boundary. Daytime
highs likely struggle to rise out of the 60s with low 70s in the
valley. Clearing skies overnight will promote radiational
cooling and given the very low dew points, we can expect an even
cooler night with lows in the 40s throughout the region. Some
upper 30s cannot be ruled out in the highest peaks of the
southern Greens and southern Adirondacks.

Upper level ridging and strong subsidence/sfc high pressure builds
back into the Northeast Friday through the first weekend of
June giving us a stretch of very pleasant, dry and increasingly
warm weather. Temperatures in the mid to upper 70s Friday and
Saturday trend back to the upper 70s and low 80s by Sunday.
Overnight lows Friday night remains quite cool thanks to
favorable radiational cooling yielding another night with
widespread 40s. Nighttime lows trend milder through the weekend
thanks to the incoming ridging and westerly return flow
developing. Dew points will remain low through the weekend so
humidity levels will remain low/comfortable for those who have
any outdoor activities planned.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Rain will continue through this evening and while a rumble of
thunder is possible but unlikely. So continuing rain with
periods of MVFR ceilings and visibilities through this evening
at all TAF sites. Once the rain ends, ceilings will likely hold
in the MVFR range and there cold be a few breaks in the clouds
toward daybreak. That would allow for some possible fog to form
between about 10Z-12Z, and indicating MVFR visibilities in fog
at all TAF sites. After about 12Z, fog should lift and burn off
and ceilings should also lift into the VFR range the rest of
the morning and afternoon.

Winds will be south at 10 to 15 Kt with gusts to 30 Kt this
evening, diminishing to to less than 10 Kt while beginning to
trend to southwest. Winds become west through Tuesday morning
and increase to 10 to 15 Kt, continuing through the afternoon..

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis/Speciale
NEAR TERM...NAS/Speciale
SHORT TERM...Speciale
LONG TERM...Speciale
AVIATION...NAS