145
AXNT20 KNHC 140554
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Jun 14 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Rainfall over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, portions of
the Florida Peninsula, and the western Atlantic west of 72W:
Ample deep tropical moisture continues to advect northeastward
across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico to over South Florida as
well as to over sections of central Florida and to across the
western Atlantic waters, reaching eastward to near 72W. The
persistent pattern of a surface trough that trails southwestward
from low pressure of 1010 mb (Invest Al90) that is now near 31N78W
to across central Florida from near Titusville to Sarasota and to
the northern Yucatan Peninsula along with a broad mid to upper-
level trough that is to the northwest of the surface trough and
shifting slowly eastward will continue to sustain numerous showers
and thunderstorms to the southeast of the surface trough
impacting the aforementioned areas through at least Fri night.
This activity will be accompanied by cloud to surface lightning,
strong gusty winds, rough seas and low visibility. Mariners
transiting these regions should exercise caution. Please refer to
bulletins and forecasts from your local weather forecast offices
for specific local information.

Heavy Rainfall over Central America and Mexico:
A barotropic Central American Gyre (CAG) is rapidly developing.
Observations are indicating that heavy rainfall is already
occurring before the main event that is forecast to begin Sunday
morning, June 16 through the morning of Friday June 21. The
persistence of moist onshore flow in the Pacific basins of
Guatemala, Chiapas, Honduras and in El Salvador will favor 3-4
days of intermittent rounds of heavy precipitation. Please refer
to bulletins and forecasts from your local weather forecast
offices for specific local information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 15 north
of 03N to inland the west coast of Africa. It is moving westward
at about 5-10 kt. A large area of numerous moderate to strong
convection is from 06N to 11N between the coast of Africa and 18W.
Similar convection is behind the wave to inland Africa near 07W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 37W from 02N
to 16N, moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is
occurring with this wave as it is moving through a dry and stable
surrounding environment.

Another central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 55W
south of 15N to inland Suriname. It is moving westward around 15
kt. No significant convection is also not being observed as it
also surrounded by a dry and stable environment. This feature
will likely be dropped from the 06Z surface analysis as latest
model guidance and satellite animation of time series suggest that
it becoming unidentifiable.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 66W south of
15N to inland central Venezuela. It is moving westward at 10-15
kt. No deep convection is noted with this wave over the Caribbean,
however, isolated showers are possible near it.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 83W south of
15N, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Deep convection with this wave
has shifted west to the eastern Pacific Ocean. This wave is likely
not to be identified on future surface analyses as it is forecast
to be absorbed into the Central American Gyre (CAG) described
under Special Features.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis passes off the coast through southern Senegal
and continues southwestward to 08N19W and to 06N21W, where it
transitions to the ITCZ and extends to 06N30W to 07N40W and to
05N50W. Aside from the convection described in the tropical waves
section above, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 43W and 50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section above for information
about the ongoing heavy rainfall over the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico and on an upcoming heavy rainfall event to impact some
areas of southeastern Mexico.

A stationary front inland northern Florida extends into the
western Florida panhandle. From there, it transitions to
a warm front into a 1011 mb low over eastern Louisiana. A
dissipating stationary front extends from the low to just
offshore southwestern Louisiana and to inland northeast Texas.
A surface trough stretches NE to SW across central Florida
from near Daytona Beach to Sarasota. It continues southwestward
to inland the Yucatan Peninsula, where a 1007 mb low is centered
near 19N89W. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
southeast of the trough continue to impact most of the
southeastern Gulf, Straits of Florida and western Cuba. Similar
activity is increasing over the Yucatan Peninsula. Outside of
convection, light to gentle variable winds prevail west of the
trough, with moderate south to southwest winds east of the trough.
Seas are 1 to 3 ft west of the trough, and 3 to 4 ft east of the
trough. Some light haze is over sections of the SW Gulf due to
ongoing agricultural fires are in Mexico.

For the forecast, the aforementioned trough is expected to
gradually weaken through late Fri. Looking ahead, a broad area of
low pressure is forecast to form over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico late this weekend or early next week. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this
system, and a tropical depression could form during the early or
middle part of next week while it moves slowly westward or west-
northwestward. Increasing winds and building seas are expected
with this system.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section above for more
information about the upcoming heavy rainfall event over Central
America.

The pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure, lower
pressures in the deep tropics, and the trough of low pressure
across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico is resulting in moderate to
fresh east to southeast winds over most of the basin, except for
the waters north of Colombia, where winds are fresh to strong per
latest ASCAT satellite data passes over that section of the sea.
Seas range from 6 to 9 ft over the central Caribbean and 4 to 6 ft
elsewhere, except 3 to 5 ft east over the southwestern Caribbean.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will prevail across
the south-central Caribbean through Fri. Moderate to fresh
southeast winds are expected over the northwestern Caribbean
through Fri. Otherwise, scattered showers and thunderstorms are
forecast to continue across portions of the northwestern Caribbean
through the rest of the week as a surge of tropical moisture
persists across the region. Expect increasing winds and building
seas over the western Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras,
over the upcoming weekend as a broad area of low pressure is
forecast to form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section above for more
information about the heavy rainfall over the western Atlantic
and near and over portions of the Florida peninsula.

A 1010 mb low is near 31N78W, with a trough extending southwestward
to inland central Florida near Titusville. A stationary front
behind it is analyzed from near 31N80W to inland northeast Florida
near Jacksonville. Plentiful deep atmospheric is present to the
southeast of stationary front and trough. Numerous showers and
thunderstorms are noted west of about 72W. This activity extends
westward to the Straits of Florida and to sections of central
Cuba. Over the central Atlantic, a trio of troughs is analyzed:
The first one is near 63W from 22N to 28N, the second one from
just east of Barbuda northeastward to 20N58W and to 23N57W and the
third one from 22N48W northeastward to 26N45W and to near 31N44W.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen from 21N to
24N between 52W and 59W, and from 23N to 27N between 46W and 49W.

Fresh to strong winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are north of 27N W of
73W. Elsewhere, strong high pressure of 1033 mb located well
north of the discussion area near 38N36W. Its associated ridge
reaches southwestward to the central Bahamas. Gentle to moderate
winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft seas dominate the basin west of 35W.
Moderate to fresh trade winds east of 35W, except for fresh to
strong northeast winds from the Cabo Verde Islands to the Canary
Islands, including along the coast of Africa. Seas are 5 to 7 ft
across this area. Saharan Air dominates the lower to middle
atmosphere across the Atlantic from about 10N to 20N and roughly
between Africa and the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast west of 55W, the numerous showers and
thunderstorms west of 72W should continue through at least Fri.
Fresh to strong southerly winds are expected over the western
Atlantic ahead of this system through early Sat. As the low
pressure departs, high pressure will build southward over the
western Atlantic beginning this weekend and into early next week.

$$
Aguirre