Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
892 FXUS61 KBGM 061838 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 238 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A round of showers and a few thunderstorms will move out of the area this afternoon. A few storms in eastern parts of the region could still become severe, with strong winds as the main threat. An upper level low will next bring an unsettled, cooler and showery weather pattern for Friday through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... 150 PM Update... Precip is transiting the area more or less on time, though some edits to the PoPs have been made to reflect ongoing trends. Thunderstorms have been few and far between, though some additional weak destabilzation is possible over SE portions of the CWA (roughly east of I-81 and south of I-88), and the odd strong to marginally-severe storm can`t be completely ruled out. Line of showers/storms should still pull east of the area by late afternoon. 630 AM Update... As expected, showers have mostly cleared the CWA and we should see a lull in activity for the next couple of hours. The next round of rain and thunderstorms is expected to move into the region by late morning, pushing east and exiting the CWA by late afternoon. Updates to the forecast were minimal as most parameters remained on track. 245 AM Update... Scattered showers have moved across the region tonight. Removed any mention of thunder from the forecast for the next 6 hours thanks to overnight stability. Much of the heavy rain in the area has stayed south of the CWA so the flooding threat tonight has subsided. Temps tonight will remain warm thanks to clouds and southerly flow keeping a warm, humid airmass in place. Lows will be in the mid to upper 60s. A brief lull in shower activity is expected from around sunrise to the mid morning. The next shortwave and accompanying front will move into the western portion of the CWA by late morning, bringing scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorm chances. Thunderstorms are expected to ramp up as they progress eastward and daytime heating allows for instability to develop. 700-1000 j/kg of CAPE is expected to develop by early afternoon ahead of the incoming front. Pockets of 0-6km shear values around 30-40kts will allow for thunderstorm organization and combined with the expected instability, severe thunderstorms will be possible east of the Finger Lakes with gusty winds as the main threat. Shear vectors are lining up somewhat perpendicular to the expected storm motion, so these storms are expected to be pretty progressive. While they will be progressive, PWATs between 1.5 and 1.8 will allow for heavy downpours in these thunderstorms that could lead to localized flooding across areas prone to it. Storms are expected to be east of the region by late afternoon. A few isolated showers may pop up across the area during the evening and into the overnight hours as an upper level trough moves into the area from the Great Lakes, but most will stay dry. Temperatures today will climb into the mid to upper 70s. Cooler and drier air will filter into the region overnight behind the front. Temps will fall into the mid to upper 50s with some patchy valley fog possible. Friday will be another day of unsettled weather as the upper level trough moves overhead, with the trough axis just east of us by the afternoon. Cooler air in the mid levels will provide increased low level lapse rates that, combined with a weak shortwave sliding through CNY and daytime heating, should kick off afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms across the region. Rainfall will be light thanks to a much drier airmass in place, with up to 0.25 inches of rain expected. Temps Friday will be cooler as WNW flow continues to advect Canadian air into the region. Highs will climb into the mid 60s to low 70s, with warmer valleys in NEPA hitting the mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... 235 PM Update... An upper-level low will hang around just north of the region through the weekend, maintaining chances for light rain showers through Saturday A shortwave propagating eastward into Central NY and NE PA along the south side of the upper-level low Sunday will bring some more intense rain showers. Generally, we`re looking at up to a quarter of an inch of rainfall between Saturday through Sunday night. Temperatures maintain in the high-60s to low-70s in the day time, and drop into the mid-50s overnight Saturday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 235 PM Update... The upper-level low finally kicks out of our region Monday, with lingering showers expected. Conditions dry up Tuesday as there`s weak ridging that begins to build over the area. Tuesday into Wednesday is when long-term guidance begins to differ pretty differently, with each solution having either longer and stronger ridging, or the next system and troughing moving in. For now, chances of rain showers come back after Tuesday and for the rest of the week until there`s a more definitive solution on timing of any rain showers and/or afternoon thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Showers and very isolated embedded thunderstorms are moving across the area presently, with some brief IFR visibilities having been reported. Could see some of the lower visbys move into SYR and AVP in the next hour or two. Threat of stronger thunderstorms looks to be east of a BGM-AVP line at this time. All terminals will become VFR by the late afternoon as the front pushes east of the region, as is already the case at ELM and ITH. Could see brief BKN MVFR ceilings behind the precip initially, then lower decks should mix out. ELM is showing signals for fog overnight and given the expected rain keeping the ground moist, fog occurring this past night, partial clearing and calm winds gave enough confidence to include IFR conditions in the TAF. There are some hints for fog development at ITH and BGM, but confidence is still too low to include it in this TAF set. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms look to return Friday, though mostly after 18Z. Outlook... Friday Afternoon and Evening...Showers and thunderstorms with some brief vis restrictions possible. Ceilings likely staying VFR. Saturday through Monday...Occasional showers with brief restrictions likely. Tuesday...VFR likely. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JTC NEAR TERM...JTC/MPH SHORT TERM...KL LONG TERM...KL AVIATION...JTC/MPH