Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
767 FXUS61 KBGM 070620 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 220 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms, some with gusty winds, will push east of the area this evening. Mostly dry conditions will follow, with some valley fog developing late tonight. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected on Friday. This showery pattern will continue through the weekend, with drier weather expected by Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... With the evening updates continued to fine tune the cloud cover and shower coverage. Still a few lingering showers across the Southern Tier into NE PA as of late evening. Previous discussion below. 337 PM Update... Showers and thunderstorms continue to push across the area this afternoon, with the stronger storms generally extending south of an apparent MCV. We`ve seen a few bowing segments, hints of mesovortices, and wind gusts in the 30-40 mph range, but so far nothing reaching severe limits. There`s still a very narrow window, especially over eastern Otsego/Sullivan/Pike Counties where the best instability is located. Otherwise, expect mostly dry conditions in the wake of this system, though a very isolated shower or thunderstorm can`t be ruled out before sunset. Winds tonight will become light and variable, with at least some patchy valley fog developing. Our upper low will move slowly to Georgian Bay by tomorrow morning, with another shortwave/vort lobe rotating through the area during the afternoon, well-timed with the diurnal cycle. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms again, though cloud cover will limit instability. One or two stronger storms can`t be ruled out, especially given fairly strong 0-6km bulk shear. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... 235 PM Update... An upper-level low will hang around just north of the region through the weekend, maintaining chances for light rain showers through Saturday A shortwave propagating eastward into Central NY and NE PA along the south side of the upper-level low Sunday will bring some more intense rain showers. Generally, we`re looking at up to a quarter of an inch of rainfall between Saturday through Sunday night. Temperatures maintain in the high-60s to low-70s in the day time, and drop into the mid-50s overnight Saturday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 235 PM Update... The upper-level low finally kicks out of our region Monday, with lingering showers expected. Conditions dry up Tuesday as there`s weak ridging that begins to build over the area. Tuesday into Wednesday is when long-term guidance begins to differ pretty differently, with each solution having either longer and stronger ridging, or the next system and troughing moving in. For now, chances of rain showers come back after Tuesday and for the rest of the week until there`s a more definitive solution on timing of any rain showers and/or afternoon thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 215AM UPDATE... RME has unexpectedly fogged in as temps dropped much faster than guidance suggested. IFR and LIFR conditions are expected for the rest of the night. 130 AM Forecast... VFR conditions expected across much of the area tonight. The one exception is ELM where clear skies, calm winds and a moist ground will allow fog to develop in the valley tonight, bringing steady IFR to LIFR conditions from 8z-12z. Another round of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms is expected during the afternoon hours with ITH/SYR/RME having the best chance for thunderstorm development during the afternoon hours. Given the high cloud bases and lack of deep moisture, IFR conditions are not expected within these showers and storms at this time. If a stronger cell moved in directly over a terminal, there could be IFR visby for a very short period, but confidence in this occurring was not high enough to include in the TAF. Outlook... Friday Night...MVFR conditions near RME with showers off Lake Ontario. VFR expected everywhere else. Saturday through Monday...Occasional showers with brief restrictions likely. Tuesday...VFR likely. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPH NEAR TERM...MPH/MWG SHORT TERM...KL LONG TERM...KL AVIATION...JTC