076
FXUS61 KBGM 040731
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
331 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm temperatures through the first half of the week with isolated
afternoon thunderstorms possible. Chances for more widespread
showers and scattered thunderstorms increase in the latter half
of the week, as a slow moving system passes through the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1250 PM Update...

Forecast remains on track. Skies are mainly clear over the
region with just patches of mid/high level clouds. Valley fog is
just starting to form now as temperatures are falling to the dew
points now at several observation sites. Only minor tweaks to
sky, pop, weather and temperatures heading into the day today.
Can`t rule out an isolated shower or t`storm over the higher
elevations of the Catskills, and Susquehanna region. Otherwise,
it will be mostly sunny and warm, with highs in the mid to upper
80s, except some low 80s for the higher elevations. Dew points
will be in the upper 50s to low 60s, giving afternoon RH values
between 35-50%, so it will not feel overly humid out there.

1000 PM Update...

Minor adjustments made at this time. Increased cloud cover
prior to daybreak tomorrow with high clouds expected to move in
ahead of a weak shortwave. The rest of the forecast remains on
track.

650 PM Update...

Dried out much of the area for the rest of this evening with
little in the way of pop up showers developing late this
afternoon and evening and skies gradually clearing. The chance
for thunder seems very low tomorrow, so did remove any mention
of it prior to 18Z and limited it to a slight chance for the
rest of the afternoon.

125 PM Update...

Surface high pressure is over the area and although it is
fairly stable, a weak shortwave passes this afternoon and will
kick off a few isolated showers. Tonight, with the loss of
heating after sunset, any showers will quickly dissipate. There
may be some patchy fog early Tuesday morning, however this will
be dependent on cloud cover.

Weak waves within the ridge aloft will kick off more showers and
possibly an isolated thunderstorm Tuesday afternoon. MLCAPE is
modeled to be around 500 J/kg, however a strong cap at 700 mb
will be in place on Tuesday, which will limit the coverage of
showers. Temperatures will be warm and some spots will hit the
mid 80s. Tomorrow night, high pressure remains in control and
temperatures will remain warm overnight with lows only in the
low 60s to upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
300 AM Forecast...

The nice spell of dry, warm weather will end Wednesday night as
the ridge that has been overhead for the past several days will
slide eastward and an upper level trough will dig into the
region from the Great Lakes.

Wednesday night will be warm and wet as southerly flow will pump
warm, humid air into the region from the SE US. Model soundings
show long, skinny CAPE profiles with PWATS hovering between 1.5
and 1.75in across the region. The initial shortwave associated
with the upper level trough looks to be pretty progressive, and
combined with the dry spell we have had over the past week,
flooding risks should be limited to areas that may see
successive heavy showers over a few hours and/or areas that are
prone to flooding. Given the high PWATs and chance for heavy,
efficient convective rainfall, WPC has our area in a Marginal
risk (5% chance of seeing flash flooding). A widespread 0.5 to
1.0 in of rain is expected through the period, with higher
amounts possible in heavy downpours. Rain and isolated
thunderstorm chances last through Thursday afternoon, when a
cold front will push through the region and bring in cooler,
drier air. Some lingering showers will remain into the overnight
hours, but most should stay dry.

Temps Wed night will be warm thanks to strong WAA from southerly
flow, only falling into the the low to mid 60s. Thursday will be
cooler than Wed with rain and the cold front moving through,
with highs reaching the mid 70s to low 80s. Depending on the
timing of the cold front, highs could differ by a couple of
degrees higher or lower. Thursday night will be about 10 degrees
cooler than Wed night, with lows in the low to mid 50s.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
315 AM Forecast...

The aforementioned upper level trough will become quasi-
stationary over the region through the weekend, allowing diurnal
rain showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop each day of
the period. Temps will be cooler under the trough, with highs in
the 60s most days, with low 70s possible in warmer valleys
Friday and Monday. The latest model guidance shows more
agreement on the movement and positioning of the trough over the
area through the weekend, with a pattern change not really in
the cards until late in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
145 AM Update

VFR conditions will persist through most of this taf period.
There is a chance for some patchy light fog or mist to develop
early this morning, however sct to bkn high clouds have been
detrimental to this fog formation. ELM has the highest
probabilities for restrictions; occasional IFR/ALT Minimums
vsbys possible with valley fog here from 08-11z this morning.
Confidence remains low to moderate on just how widespread and
thick this fog may become early this morning.

VFR conditions are expected for the entire after 12Z with
isolated showers in the afternoon and perhaps a thunderstorm.
Not nearly enough coverage to put in at any taf sites at this
time. Winds are expected to be light out of the south-
southwest under 10 kts.


Outlook...

late tonight...Mainly VFR; marine layer of lower clouds moves
into the Poconos; but looks to stay away from our taf sites.

Wednesday...Low chance of showers/storms and associated
restrictions.

Wednesday night through Saturday...Increasing chance of
showers/storms and associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...DK/MPK/MJM
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...DK/MJM