685
FXUS61 KBUF 071905
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
305 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler today with scattered to numerous showers and some
thunderstorms as an area of low pressure moves through the region.
Shower chances decrease Saturday with a brief period of drier
weather. Unsettle weather returns Saturday night and lasts through
Sunday with chances for showers and some thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A moist cyclonic flow around a deep mid-level low will continue to
deliver unsettle weather across the Lower Lakes today. As mid-levels
cool aloft, to the tune of +6C to +7C, and the support from
channeled shortwave energy we will continue to see showers and some
thunderstorms through early this evening. In terms of
sunshine...should be fairly limited given the cooler air mass
filtering in aloft. Any amount of sunshine is likely to lead to more
clouds and then additional storms. All this activity is in concert
with the arrival of deeper moisture and the trough axis swinging
into the region. Given the convective nature of the
storms...rainfall amount will vary greatly over any given location,
with up to 0.50 inch in the stronger cells. Otherwise...it will
become breezy with wind gusts up to 35 mph.

Tonight...the mid-level low will slowly churn eastward and heads
towards New England overnight. We should see a general decrease in
shower and storm coverage overall, especially with the loss of
daytime heating. That said...given the cool airmass aloft (+5C/+6C
at H850) there may be some lake induced showers east and southeast
of the lakes. Its marginal but with lakes in the 60s (+16C/17C) it
certainly is enough. The best shot will `likely` be east of Lake
Ontario where deeper synoptic background moisture will be found and
a longer fetch given W-WNW flow.

There will still be some showers east of Lake Ontario early Saturday
morning. After that...weak shortwave ridging gradually builds in
which will bring about a drying trend from west to east by the
afternoon. However...this will be short-lived with the next round of
showers and storms arriving by Saturday night. More on that in the
short-term disco.

Overall not quite as cool Saturday...we should see a decent amount
of sunshine too with highs peaking in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Saturday night another seasonably strong mid level closed
circulation will move from eastern Ontario to central Quebec
Province, with attendant DCVA/height falls spreading across the
eastern Great Lakes overnight. The forcing from the approaching
trough will combine with a strengthening upper level jet streak
rounding the base of the trough to bring a period of deep layer
ascent to our region. Model guidance continues to suggest that a
baroclinic wave will peel off of a system over the central High
Plains and partially phase with the incoming trough, producing a
period of widespread showers across much of the region as the
baroclinic wave enhances frontogenesis and deformation. The 12z/07
guidance suite has universally slowed the timing of all this by a
few hours...and have accordingly made the same adjustment to
continuity. Thunder potential looks to be rather limited given the
paucity of instability currently seen amongst the guidance...though
still cannot completely rule out a few isolated embedded storms
given the quality of the available forcing. Otherwise...lows will
range from the lower 50s across interior portions of the Southern
Tier/North Country to the mid and upper 50s elsewhere.

This organized area of showers will exit off to our southeast Sunday
morning. Following its passage...multiple additional shortwaves will
then rotate through the mean larger-scale trough across the Great
Lakes/New England through the remainder of Sunday and Sunday night.
Coupled with daytime heating...this will lead to another round of
scattered to numerous showers and a few more thunderstorms Sunday
afternoon and evening. The greatest potential for these will be
found across the North Country where available forcing looks to be
the greatest...with a secondary maxima possible from the Niagara
Frontier into the western Finger Lakes along a developing low level
convergence zone. As we push through Sunday night...the shower
activity will then tend to become more orographically and even lake-
enhanced east and east-southeast of the lakes as a cooling moist
cyclonic upslope flow ushers 850 mb temps of +3C to +5C into our
region. Meanwhile temperatures will run a little below normal...with
highs on Sunday mostly in the mid to upper 60s followed by lows in
the upper 40s to mid 50s Sunday night.

On Monday our region will remain under the influence of deep upper
level troughing...with the main axis of this trough drifting from
western New York at the start of the day to New England by Monday
evening. Moisture/forcing and continued cool air aloft attendant to
the trough will keep some scattered showers going across our
region...with the greatest chances for these again found across the
North Country which will be in closest proximity to the upper low.
Incoming surface-based ridging and drier air will then finally lead
to a return to drier and quieter weather from northwest to southeast
late Monday afternoon through Monday night. Meanwhile temps will
remain on the cool side...with the core of coolest air aloft
crossing our region during the day Monday and only supporting of
highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s...with lows in the mid 40s to
lower 50s then following Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
For the long term period, guidance seems to be trending a bit drier,
especially for the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe. Guidance brings a
sharp ridge and sfc high across the region through Wednesday that
will result in mostly dry conditions across the forecast area.

For Thursday guidance is split between keeping a zonal flow or
bringing the next trough over the region. So will bring slowly
increasing POPs in for Thursday.

Friday looks like the wet day as a mid-level trough and cold front
moves across the area causing showers to move across much of the
region. Some thunderstorms with the daytime heating will also be
possible.

Temperatures for the period start out below normal as the ridge and
sfc high move in from the west. By Wednesday with both features over
and shifting to the east, warm air advection will help temperatures
climb above normal into the mid 70s to near 80 across the area.
Warmer temperatures continue through the rest of the work week with
highs mid 70s to mid 80s for most of the area from the higher
terrain to lower elevations respectively.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A mix of mainly MVFR/VFR conditions are expected today as scattered
to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms develop through this
evening. Any of the stronger cells may bring brief IFR conditions to
area terminals.

VFR conditions are expected this evening through tonight.

Outlook...

Saturday...Mainly VFR. Chance of showers in the morning at KART.
Saturday night...VFR/MVFR with showers and a slight chance of
thunderstorms.
Sunday...Mainly VFR. Chance of showers.
Monday...Mainly VFR. Chance of showers.
Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Fresh southwest to west winds expected on both lakes today producing
modest chop. Small craft advisories and beach hazards are in place
on Lake Erie through Saturday. Small crafts on Lake Ontario for the
eastern portion of Lake Ontario today but will likely be expanded
west to cover the entire lake tonight through Saturday.

Winds relax Saturday night, before increasing again Sunday into
early next week. Small Craft Advisories may be needed during this
time.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Beach Hazards Statement until 11 PM EDT this evening for
     NYZ010-019-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LEZ040-
         041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for LOZ044-
         045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...Hitchcock/JJR
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR