052
FXUS64 KCRP 290959
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
459 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Key Messages:

- Marginal risk of severe weather through tonight (northern
  counties).

- Moderate risk of rip currents along area beaches through
  Thursday.

The MCS has drifted apart leaving behind a wake low across the
area. Current observations have wind gusts up to 45-50 MPH over
portions of the Coastal Plains, with winds now beginning to pick-
up along the coast. A Wind Advisory is in effect through 6 AM for
counties west of Bee to Jim Wells, and through 7 AM from Kleberg
to Refugio to Aransas. As of writing, wind gusts are reaching
35-40 MPH at the CCIA.

Although convection has wained, a few showers and thunderstorms
continue to impact the coastal waters and portions of the Rio
Grande Plains (mostly west of the border). Another ripple on the
generally northwesterly flow aloft can be expected tonight through
Thursday, but it will be weaker with most of the energy staying
north of the area. Nevertheless, have maintained a 20-40% chance
of showers and thunderstorms through the period, given how the
systems have been behaving over the past few days as there is
plentiful instability and moisture to work with. SPC has the
northern half of the CWA under a Marginal risk for severe weather
through tonight.

In regards to the heat indices today, these are forecast to remain
below 110 degrees across most of the area due to cooling from the
storms earlier in the night. A few locations may briefly reach
110-114 degrees along the coastal counties, but should be brief
enough not to grant another Heat Advisory at the moment. A
Moderate risk for rip currents remains in effect through Thursday
along area beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Key Messages:

- Moderate to extreme heat related impacts continue this week
  through the middle of next week.

- Marginal Risk for Severe Thunderstorms Friday Night

A mid-level ridge positioned over Mexico will maintain hot and humid
conditions over South Texas through the upcoming weekend. A series
of shortwave troughs traversing the northern periphery of this
ridge will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms mainly
during the overnight hours from Friday Night through Sunday Night.
Best chances for convection will be across the western and
northern parts of our CWA. Cannot rule out a threat for strong to
severe storms as well. SPC currently has northern portions of our
CWA in a marginal risk for Friday Night.

The mid level ridge will become amplified over the southern Rockies
by early next week which will dry our mid levels and increase the
heat. Heat advisory conditions will be possible on Friday and again
Monday and Tuesday with Excessive Heat Warnings possible by the
middle of next week.

In addition to the heat, hazy conditions will continue due to the
fires in Mexico. Please take pre-cautions to protect yourself when
outdoors for prolonged periods.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Showers and thunderstorms are making their way across area
terminals this morning in response to a passing mid level
disturbance. This has lead to poor aviation conditions across
sites with ceilings and visibilities falling to MVFR/IFR levels.
The activity will continue on an eastward progression over the
next several hours, but strong winds are developing behind it in
response to a very strong pressure gradient. A few of the storms
have become strong to severe, and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch
remains in effect through 07Z. Even when the stronger storms clear
out, isolated lightning remains possible through near daybreak
today. Drier conditions and VFR levels are forecast to return past
12Z this morning. Breezy afternoon winds are also in the forecast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 355 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

A brief period of strong winds are possible this morning in the wake
of the exiting storm system. Otherwise a weak to moderate onshore
flow can be expected today. The onshore flow becomes moderate to
strong on Thursday and continues through the upcoming weekend. There
is a 30-40% chance for showers and thunderstorms today through
Thursday, and again Friday Night and Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    93  80  92  81 /  20  20  20  10
Victoria          91  76  90  77 /  40  20  30  10
Laredo           100  79 102  79 /  10  10  10  10
Alice             96  78  97  79 /  20  20  20  10
Rockport          90  81  90  81 /  20  20  20  10
Cotulla           98  78 100  79 /  20  20  10  20
Kingsville        95  80  95  80 /  20  20  20  10
Navy Corpus       90  82  91  83 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CDT early this morning for TXZ229>232-
     239>241.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ANM/88
LONG TERM....JM/75
AVIATION...ANM/88