252
FXUS62 KGSP 100600
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
200 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves south of our area becoming stationary through
mid week with dry conditions under weak high pressure for Monday
through Thursday.  Isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected by next weekend as a weak cold front
approaches from the north.  Temperatures are expected to be well
above normal at end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Key Messages...

1) Scattered to numerous showers are expected this morning, mainly
south of the I-85 corridor.

2) Drier conditions and cooler temperatures return this afternoon.

As of 150 am EDT Monday: A cold front is sagging slowly southeast
near the southern boundary of the CWA early this morning. A small
batch of showers and embedded TS over north GA will impact the
southwest quadrant of our CWA between ~07Z and sunrise, where
locally up to a half inch of rainfall is possible this morning.

Otherwise, a very broad upper trof/closed upper low will continue
to amplify over the eastern CONUS thru the period. The trof axis
is expected to linger just to our north towards the end of the
period. The cold front will stall out just to our south this morning
overnight, eventually washing out later today into Tuesday as broad
Canadian high pressure spreads over our area. Showers are expected
to linger across our southern into late morning, but should taper
off by around noon as lower theta-E air gradually filters through
the area. Temperatures will be cooler today, with highs about a
category below normal for the second week of June.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 205 PM EDT Sunday: Short waves drop across the area through
an upper trough on Tuesday. The trough moves east Wednesday with
weakening NW flow over our area. The cold front from the near term
slowly moves south away from the area Tuesday with dry high pressure
building in on Wednesday. Can`t rule out an isolated shower Monday
evening with lingering low level moisture and weak forcing, but
chance too low to include in the forecast for now. It will be breezy
Monday night and Tuesday though. Dry conditions and light winds
expected Wednesday. Below normal lows Monday night rise to near
normal Tuesday night. Near normal highs Tuesday rise a couple of
degrees above normal Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 220 PM EDT Sunday: Still some run to run consistency issues
with the guidance. That said, there does seem to be a trend toward a
drier forecast. A series of weak short waves move through the flow,
mainly north of our area through Friday. Then a semblance of a Rex
Block develops Saturday into Sunday with an upper anti-cyclone
sliding into the Southeast by Sunday, and a weak upper low moving
east across the Gulf of Mexico. The result is weak and generally dry
high pressure Wednesday and Thursday with the potential for diurnal
convection Saturday as a weak cold front crosses the area. Diurnal
convection possible again Sunday as a moist southerly flow develops.
A warming trend takes place with highs nearly 10 degrees above
normal by Saturday, which drop back a few degrees for Sunday. Lows
rise to around 10 degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: A frontal boundary will continue sagging
south across the region through the morning. Ample moisture will
linger in the vicinity of the boundary this morning, but extensive
high and mid-level clouds will limit the potential for restrictions
in low stratus and/or fog this morning. Meanwhile scattered showers,
and perhaps a TS or two are expected to develop in or move into the
area prior to daybreak...mainly impacting upstate South Carolina.
KAND stands the greatest chance of seeing shower activity, and a
tempo is included there from 07-11Z. VCSH is carried at KGMU/KGSP,
while shower chances appear minimal at the NC terminals. Otherwise,
other than a tempo for 5SM at KAVL later this morning, VFR is
forecast through the period. Cloud cover is expected to steadily
clear from around sunrise through the morning, with mostly SKC
conditions at all terminals by early afternoon. Light winds with a
northerly component are anticipated through much of the period,
except for a brief excursion to light SW this afternoon.

Outlook: Dry sfc high pressure will become established this
afternoon, and generally remain through the end of the work week,
with little chance for convection or restrictions.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JDL/JPT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JDL