641
FXUS62 KGSP 071823
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
223 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure over the area Saturday gives way to a a cold front
and returning shower and thunderstorm chances on Sunday. Forecast
confidence lowers starting next week as the overall pattern is
uncertain by the end of the seven day period, but trends are for a
dry start to the work week then increasing rain chances through
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Messages:

1) Dry Conditions Expected Today

2) Lower Humidity Lingers Through the Period

3) An MCS May Impact the Area Late Saturday but Confidence is Low

As of 200 PM EDT Friday...Dry high pressure will build in from the
west today into tonight leading to dry weather, lower humidity, and
mostly clear skies. Highs should rebound into the mid to upper 80s
east of the mountains, with the mid 60s to lower 80s expected across
the mountains. Low-end gusts continue across the mountains this
afternoon but should gradually taper off this evening as the
pressure gradient relaxes. Lows tonight will be much cooler compared
to last night, thanks to great radiational cooling conditions, and
around a few degrees below climo. Dew point depressions should
remain too high for fog formation overnight.

The sfc high will gradually weaken on Saturday as upper shortwaves
track overhead late Saturday afternoon into Sunday evening. This
will mainly allow for a slight increase in upper cloud cover
Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. The only caveat is that an
MCS will make a run for the western Carolinas late Saturday
afternoon but it`s expected to gradually weaken as it approaches the
forecast area. CAMs show the potential for some spotty light showers
developing in association with the MCS late Saturday afternoon into
early Sunday evening. However, with confidence too low on whether
activity will be able to hold together, maintained dry conditions on
Saturday for now. Highs temps on Saturday will be a few degrees
warmer across the mountains but similar to today`s highs east of the
mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 150 PM EDT Friday: Short waves carve out a trough from the
northwest flow over the area this period. At the surface a cold
front crosses the area Sunday night with high pressure attempting to
build in from the NW on Monday. The guidance still shows agreement
on showers and scattered thunderstorms for the mountains on Sunday,
with scattered showers and isolated storms elsewhere. Isolated
showers linger Sunday night. Although the latest guidance runs are
trending toward a potentially dry Monday, they have been flip
flopping back and forth between Chance PoP and dry. Have kept low
chance PoP in for Monday in line with the guidance blend, but this
could change should the drier trend continue. Lows will be near to
slightly above normal both nights. Highs will be around 90 along and
south of the I-85 corridor and above normal elsewhere. Highs Monday
drop back to around normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 210 PM EDT Friday: The Monday trough moves east Tuesday as a
short wave ridge builds in. The ridge moves east on Wednesday as a
southern stream low pressure moves into the Gulf Coast and stalls
there while a northern stream short wave traverses the Great Lakes
by Friday. Dry high pressure builds in Tuesday then moves east
Wednesday as a moist southerly flow develops. This flow remains over
the area through Friday as a surface low develops along the Gulf
Coast and stalls while a cold front moves toward the area from the
NW by Friday. This will set up the potential for a protracted period
of at least scattered diurnal convection with the potential for non-
diurnal convection as well. Of course, there is some uncertainty
with the strength and location of these features. Therefore, have
trended toward the guidance blend which keeps scattered mainly
diurnal convection each day. Temps below normal on Tuesday slowly
rise to above normal by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR and dry thanks to high pressure building
into the western Carolinas from the west through the 18Z TAF
forecast period. FEW to SCT VFR cumulus have develop across the
terminals this afternoon. Cumulus should dissipate shortly after
sunset. Low-end gusts will continue at KAVL through early this
evening before tapering off. KAND just started seeing low-end gusts
this afternoon but these are expected dwindle later this afternoon.
Clear skies are expected overnight with a FEW cirrus expected to
track over the terminals on Saturday. Winds east of the mtns will
remain NW through late this evening before toggling more N (with
some sites even seeing winds go NNE) overnight. Winds will remain NW
at KAVL through the 18Z TAF period. Winds east of the mtns will
gradually turn WSW/SW by early Saturday afternoon. Wind speeds will
generally be lighter on Saturday compared to today.

Outlook: A cold front brings shower and thunderstorm chances back on
Sunday. Activity may linger into early next week due to the front
stalling along the Southeast Coast.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...AR