Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
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123 FXUS62 KGSP 120158 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 958 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry conditions will continue through the week under weak high pressure. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected early next week as a weak cold front approaches from the north. The hottest days are expected to be Friday and Saturday, then the heat should continue into next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 955 PM Tuesday: More low and mid clouds developing than expected, as moisture is trapped under a fairly pronounced inversion on the 00z GSO sounding. In general, the guidance has the clouds thinning out/dissipating, but they are not initializing the current cloud cover over the CWFA very well. Have bumped up sky thru the evening with the latest CONSshort, but then have it gradually decrease thru the night. Temps may end up being slightly warmer than expected, if skies don`t completely clear out. Otherwise, an upper trough situated north of the CWA shifts eastward as a weakening ridge axis moves toward the Midwest. Thus, the subtropical jet continues to settle northward, setting the stage for a typical summerlike pattern. Flow aloft starts to become more broad and W/NW by the end of the period. Sfc high pressure continues to build into the southeast and increased height rises contribute to a warming pattern into the extended period. As the sfc pressure amplifies eastward, sfc winds will toggle E/SE with a short lived moisture fetch from the Atlantic Ocean, at least through the near term. No precipitation is expected during this time, given the strong subsidence and stout inversion layer aloft shunting rising parcels from the BL. Quiet forecast overall. Temperatures overnight will be closer to climo and highs on Wednesday start to rebound with temps in the upper 80s east of the mountains. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 130 pm EDT Tuesday: Upper heights will slowly rise through the short range period. A seasonally dry air mass will remain in place across the area keeping skies mostly sunny/clear and limiting any convection to isolated ridgetop showers during peak heating. Thus, we expect high temperatures to get higher each day. Expect highs in the Piedmont to be near 90 on Thursday and in the lower to middle 90s on Friday. Mountain valley highs will be in the mid 80s Thursday and near 90 on Friday. Friday`s readings will be nearly 10 degrees above climo. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 140 pm EDT Tuesday: Upper heights will continue to rise through the weekend into early next week. However, surface high pressure will push into the northeastern states bringing an easterly component to the low level flow in this area. This will act to bring some moisture back into the area and cool temperatures down some. Readings will likely still be above climo, especially this weekend but not as hot as Friday. With the moisture returning, we will see a return to more typical mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms Sunday into next Tuesday. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions expected thru the period, but patchy mountain valley fog may form (not expected to affect KAVL). High pressure will keep winds light thru the period, picking up slightly out of the S/SE around midday, but staying around 4-6 kt. Periods of mainly few-sct fair wx cu will persist under increasing cirrus during the day Wednesday. Outlook: Sfc high pressure remains over the area thru the end of the week with minimal chance for convection and associated flight restrictions. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEO NEAR TERM...ARK/CP SHORT TERM...SCW LONG TERM...SCW AVIATION...ARK