868
FXUS63 KILX 070807
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
307 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy northwest winds with gusts of 25 to 35 mph develop by
  this afternoon, posing a threat for blowing dust.

- A decaying thunderstorm complex will bring our next chance of
  rain late tonight into Saturday morning.

- Near to slightly below normal temperatures will continue into
  early next week, with a warming trend by the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Water vapor imagery early this morning shows a deep upper trough
centered over the Northern Great Lakes Region, with northwest flow
positioned over the Midwest states. Breezy northwest winds will be
seen once again today as deep mixing up to ~800 mb sets up, tapping
into stronger winds aloft. Gusts between 25 and 35 mph seem
reasonable, with the highest probabilities for 30 mph or greater
gusts being near/north of I-74. Blowing dust was reported in spots
yesterday, with similar conditions possible today. A cooperative
observer in Hoopeston (Vermilion Co) noted that dust was blowing
pretty good on Thursday despite receiving over an inch of rain the
day prior. This could lead to reduced visibility when traveling,
especially on north to south oriented roadways.

A MCS will develop over the central High Plains later today and
track east-southeast toward the Middle Mississippi Valley overnight.
Precipitation should start to enter west-central Illinois shortly
after midnight and spread east through the morning hours of
Saturday. Little to no instability will keep thunder chances <20% as
it works through. Additional storms, some severe, look to develop
along a remnant outflow boundary Saturday afternoon, but CAMs
suggest this largely remaining south of the county warning area
where better instability is expected. A cold front will approach
from the northwest Saturday evening, bringing a few non-severe
showers and storms.

Temperatures stay near or slightly below normal through early next
week underneath northwest flow aloft. Occasional chances for
precipitation will be possible with any upper shortwave, though
details on where and when remain uncertain. Upper ridging will
amplify over the western CONUS by the middle of next week and spill
eastward late next week, bringing the return of more summer-like
heat and humidity.

NMA

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1054 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

High pressure will stretch from the northern Great Plains into the
lower Mississippi Valley tonight and most of the day Friday,
eventually inching east across central Illinois Friday night.
Breezy northwest winds will be in place again Friday with gusts to
around 25 kt from mid/late morning through around sunset. Winds
will become light and variable Friday night as the ridge axis
passes through the area. Showers and thunderstorms are possible in
the region later Friday night, but are currently expected beyond
the current forecast valid time.

Deubelbeiss

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$