Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
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620 FXUS63 KILX 061952 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 252 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - The chances for measurable rainfall are increasing late Friday night into Saturday morning: however, the severe weather risk remains very low (less than 5%). - Near to slightly below normal temperatures will prevail for the next several days...before a warming trend brings summer-like readings in the middle to upper 80s by the end of next week. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday) Issued at 252 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Northwesterly winds will continue to gust between 20 and 30mph across much of the KILX CWA for the balance of the afternoon...with locations along/north of a Macomb to Bloomington line observing occasional gusts of 35 to 40mph. Once diurnal mixing decreases toward sunset, the gustiness will subside and winds will eventually drop to less than 10mph across the board by mid-evening. Forecast soundings show a similarly deep mixing layer up to around 8000ft developing on Friday, so am expecting another breezy day with gusts of 25-30mph common across the area. Lows tonight will drop into the middle to upper 50s, while highs on Friday top out in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Barnes .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Next Thursday) Issued at 252 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 With deep upper troughing anchored over Ontario and the Great Lakes and upper ridging building over the Desert Southwest, central Illinois will remain locked in a northwesterly flow pattern through the upcoming weekend. A short-wave trough embedded within the flow will ripple southeastward across the Plains Friday night. Aided by a 40-45kt nocturnal low-level jet oriented northeastward from the Texas panhandle, a cluster of thunderstorms will develop across southeast Nebraska, then track southeastward toward the lower Ohio River Valley. The exact placement of this convective development still remains somewhat uncertain: however, the 12z Jun 6 model consensus has shifted it north of previous forecasts. As a result, have added 30-50 PoPs along/southwest of a Macomb to Springfield line late Friday night...then have spread them across the entire CWA Saturday morning. Instability will initially be quite meager, so have only mentioned showers with the first wave arriving late Friday night into Saturday morning. Meanwhile further northwest, a second northern-stream short-wave will push a weak cold front into Illinois Saturday afternoon/evening. A modest increase in instability is progged, with NAM MUCAPE values increasing to 200-500J/kg. Have therefore mentioned a chance for thunder with any late day activity that forms. Once the front passes, a cooler/drier airmass will return and rain chances will be pushed into the Ohio River Valley by late Saturday night into Sunday. After that, cool and mostly dry weather is anticipated through Tuesday before upper heights rise and an appreciable warming trend gets underway by next Wednesday/Thursday. Barnes && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the entire 18z TAF period. Other than a period of FEW-SCT diurnal Cu early this afternoon, skies will remain clear. NW winds will gust to around 25kt this afternoon...with the gusts subsiding by around 23z. Winds will drop below 10kt across the board by mid-evening, but will once again ramp up after sunrise Friday due to deep-layer mixing. Forecast soundings and numeric guidance support NW gusts of 20-25kt after 15z Fri. Barnes && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$