Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
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685 FXUS63 KJKL 061810 AAC AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 210 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers should occur through early this evening ahead of a secondary cold front. - Cooler and noticeably less humid air will arrive behind this cold front and reside over the area Friday and Saturday. - A rapid succession of more frontal boundaries will keep a potential for showers or thunderstorms in the forecast at times next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1201 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2024 Hourly grids were updated based on recent observations and trends. This led to a decrease in pops over the next couple of hours behind the departing front and ahead of the secondary front. With that sky cover was also decreased a bit over the central portion of the CWA based on satellite trends with additional temperature adjustments based on recent observations. Chances for thunder have decreased and were lowered to below 15 percent for the remainder of the day. Although showers may develop with the secondary front, enough capping is expected to keep the cumulus limited in depth. UPDATE Issued at 828 AM EDT THU JUN 6 2024 Early morning obs have been blended into the forecast without substantive changes. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 608 AM EDT THU JUN 6 2024 A band of showers and a few thunderstorms is continuing to progress south southeast across the forecast area early this morning. The precipitation is occurring ahead of a weakening cold front and is also supported by a weakening wave aloft rotating around an upper low near Lake Superior. The precipitation and cold front will continue moving through the area today, and will exit southeast into VA this afternoon. Slightly drier low level air will arrive behind today`s front, along with much drier air aloft. A second cold front will approach from the northwest late today and pass through tonight. Models continue to suggest enough low level moisture remaining for a few more isolated showers to develop ahead of the second front. However, forecast soundings look capped around 600-700mb, which would prevent thunder. This activity then diminishes as it exits to the southeast this evening. More noticeably less humid air will arrive behind the second front, with high pressure then building in from the west with abundant sunshine for Friday. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 436 AM EDT THU JUN 6 2024 The 06/00z model suite begins the long-term period in good synoptic agreement, leading to a high confidence forecast through the upcoming weekend, before increasing model spread results in lower forecast confidence heading into the new work week. Initially, 500H ridging will be solidly in place over northern Mexico and the Southern Plains. Meanwhile two sub-550 dam lows lie in a northwest-southeast oriented trough from the Upper Mackenzie Valley to Lower Great Lakes. Subtle disturbances aloft are riding through the northwest flow over the Central Plains between the ridging further south and the troughing further north. At the surface, a developing wave of low pressure is found over the Dakotas with a trailing cold front across the northern Rockies, while high pressure is meanders east of the 500H ridge across the Lower Ohio/Tennessee and Mississippi river valleys. The surface high pressure will shift east, cresting over the Central/Southern Appalachians late Friday night. As that high continues to press east on Saturday, focus will turn toward the weak low pressure passing through the Southern Great Lakes and dragging a cold front into the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, the more easterly upper level low (over Quebec) will elongate and rotate toward the Ohio Valley, shoving the cold front south of the Commonwealth and allowing cool Canadian air to pour across eastern Kentucky on Sunday night and Monday. Height rises return Monday night and Tuesday as the trough axis shifts to our east and high pressure passes over the Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians. The second upper level low and/or an associated trough may then impact eastern Kentucky during the middle of next week but the specifics are uncertain due to significant model spread. Sensible weather will feature fair conditions through Saturday along with seasonably cool temperatures. Morning low temperatures are forecast to range from the lower to mid 50s while afternoon highs top out in the mid 70s to lower 80s. A few of the coldest northeastern valleys could briefly dip into the upper 40s early Saturday morning. Shower chances rise again Saturday night as the cold front drops into the Ohio Valley and peak ~40 to 60 PoP as that cold front passes over eastern Kentucky on Sunday. A weak thunderstorm cannot be ruled out ahead of or along the front. Behind that front, diurnally-driven showers (20-30 PoP) are again expected to bubble up on Monday, along with a possible rumble of thunder. After one more day with highs in the mid to upper 70s on Sunday, Monday`s maximum temperatures will be noticeably cooler, primarily in the lower to middle 70s. A few of the cooler locales may fail to even reach 70. A downright chilly night for mid-June is in store for Monday night, likely deep into the lower and middle 50s for most locations and perhaps even in the 40s through the more sheltered valleys and hollows. (Normal highs for June 11th at the lower elevations range from ~79 to 83 while normal lows range from 56 to 64.) Once the high pressure crests overhead, winds will turn southerly on Tuesday leading to a quick warming trend -- high temperatures return to the 80s by Wednesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2024 Mainly VFR was observed across the region at issuance time with some MFR near the VA border and likely some brief VFR reductions were occurring in isolated light showers located generally southeast of the TAF sites. A secondary cold front may lead to additional isolated showers generally after 20Z moving from northwest to southeast through about 03Z. Some very localized brief reductions to MVFR cannot be completely ruled out in these. Otherwise, VFR should generally prevail to end the period, although some valley fog between 06Z to 13Z could lead to MVFR or perhaps lower visibility. Winds will average west to northwest at 10KT or less through the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...GEERTSON AVIATION...JP