658
FXUS62 KKEY 291849
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
Issued by National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
249 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

Earlier showers that developed across Florida Bay into Key Largo
along an old land breeze have fizzled out with only few to scattered
island cumulus leftover early this afternoon with winds light and
variable and temperatures near to a little above average in the
upper 80s to around 90 degrees.

A broad mid to upper longwave trough is located over the eastern
third of the country with weaker troughing aloft over the region
from the eastern Gulf into the southern Florida with weak west
to southwest flow in the mid and upper levels above the keys. In
fact, dry air will entrain south along the west coast of FL into
the keys through this evening as a weak shortwave passes east through
south FL and generates thunderstorms northeast of the area closer
to Miami within the weaker troughing pattern as it slowly edges
southeast closer to the northern Bahamas. This drier air aloft
will limit precipitation chances for the most part except nearer
to Key Large where isolated showers remain in the forecast this
evening. Otherwise, light and variable 4-8 mph under mostly clear
skies with typically humid lows in the lower 80s.

A stagnant pattern will persist through at least Friday with a
frontal boundary stalled well to the north over southern FL. A few
weak shortwaves will move along the base of an upper trough
locked in over much of the eastern US Thursday and into Friday as
well. Most convective activity looks to remain over south FL
closer to the aforementioned boundary, with the highest chances
being over the Upper Keys and waters off southwest FL north of the
Key West/Dry Tortugas areas. Though have still kept isolated
chances over the Middle and Lower Keys as well at this time,
especially Friday when the front starts to sag south.

A surface ridge will start to build further across the Florida
Peninsula Friday Night and into the start of the weekend, which
looks to push the above mentioned front towards the Keys and usher
in some abnormally drier weather to the area along with breezy
east to northeasterly winds. The front is expected to stall and
essentially dissipate almost right across the area Saturday and
into Sunday, setting up a pretty tight moisture boundary for the
weekend. Some drier air aloft could limit the amount of convection
for both Saturday and Sunday, though given the tight moisture
gradient and the presence of the weakening boundary, kept chances
of some isolated activity over most of the area. With this being
said, both temperatures and dew points have potential to be below
normal given the amount of southern progress of boundary and
surface ridging.

High pressure begins to weaken a bit and lift towards the
northeast for the start of next week, which should return a more
southeasterly flow overhead and therefore increasing moisture and
rain/thunder chances.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 239 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

High pressure is starting to build northwest of the region through
tonight as a cold front weakens and stalls over central Florida.
The high will shift more north of the waters Thursday and Thursday
night, then begin to shift more to the northeast of the area Friday
night into Saturday. Onshore easterly winds will increase by the
weekend as high pressure builds offshore of the mid-Atlantic coast
with a potential for small craft advisories due to elevated winds
and seas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 239 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH terminals through the
TAF period. A cloudline is present over the Lower keys cuasing SCT
clouds at 030, but clouds should break apart and become FEW around
sunset. Near surface winds will be light and variable.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...BT
Aviation/Nowcasts....AP
Data Acquisition.....AP

Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
www.facebook.com/nwskeywest
www.twitter.com/nwskeywest