Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
198 FXUS62 KKEY 281441 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1041 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1040 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024 Despite a very dry tropospheric profile sampled by the 12z sounding at KEY, CIMSS satellite- derived total precipitable water product is highlighting a modest moisture surge occurring in the vicinity of the Upper Keys. Owed to this moisture surge, chaotic isolated showers have emerged in the disjointed steering flow. Outside of these isolated showers, skies are mostly sunny across the Florida Keys, with temperatures already approaching the upper 80s at many communities. For this afternoon, general meteorological reasoning suggests further shower and isolated thunderstorm development should occur in the diurnally-favored South Florida region, which may clip portions of the Upper Keys late this afternoon or early evening. However, most of the island chain should remain dry owed to the tremendous amounts of dry air from just above the surface up to the upper- levels. Slight measurable rain chances are maintained for the first period, with no changes proposed for the first period at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 1040 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories currently in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. Light to gentle breezes will prevail today through Thursday night. High pressure will emerge from the southeastern United States before the weekend, then build across the western North Atlantic. Fresh northeast to east breezes are possible by Friday night or Saturday as the high matures near Bermuda. Small Craft Advisories may be required for portions of the Florida Keys marine zones as early as Saturday afternoon or evening, continuing through early next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 1040 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. Near surface winds are currently southeast at 5 to 10 knots but will decrease to near 5 knots and become variable by this afternoon. && .CLIMATE... On this day in Keys Weather History, the daily record warm low temperature of 83F was recorded in Key West set back in 2020. As of this morning, EYW has not dropped below 84 degrees, therefore, if it does not drop below 83 degrees by midnight, we will have set/tied yet another record warm min temperature. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1873. Also, the daily record warm low temperature of 82 degrees was recorded in Marathon set back in 2020. As of this morning, MTH has not dropped below 84 degrees, therefore, if it does not drop below 82 degrees by midnight, we will have set/tied this record warm low temperature. Temperature records for Marathon date back to 1951. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 91 82 91 81 / 0 10 10 10 Marathon 91 82 91 82 / 10 20 10 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...BT Aviation/Nowcasts....AP Data Acquisition.....AP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest