572
FXUS62 KMFL 061729
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
129 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 122 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Key Messages:

 - Shower and storm chances increase today, with some strong to
   severe storms possible through this evening.

 - Hot and humid conditions forecast today and throughout the
   weekend, with peak heat indices in the 103 to 110 range.

A potentially active afternoon and evening is on tap for portions
of South Florida as today`s round of sea-breeze-focused showers
and thunderstorms may have a bit more juice to them, thanks to an
approaching mid-level shortwave. This feature will bring 500 mb
temps down to around -8 to -9 C, which will combine with
steepening mid-level lapse rates near 6.5-7 C/km and MLCAPE over
2500 J/kg to provide an environment that could support strong to
severe storms capable of producing large hail (up to 1.75" in
diameter) and damaging wind gusts, in addition to frequent
lightning and heavy downpours. While strong to severe storms may
be possible across much of South Florida, they are most likely to
occur across the northern and eastern areas (Lake O and East Coast
metro). SPC has this area highlighted in a Slight Risk (level 2
of 5), with surrounding areas in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5).
Showers and storms are anticipated to initiate in the early
afternoon along the sea breeze boundaries and propagate inland
over the Interior and towards Lake O by late afternoon and
evening. The approaching shortwave and associated surface low over
the Southeast US has also started to turn surface winds more
southerly, ushering in a warmer and more humid airmass. This will
lead to hot and humid conditions, with high temps in the low to
mid 90s across the area, and heat indices ranging from 103-108.

For Friday, the aforementioned trough continues migrating
eastward, while an associated sfc frontal boundary pushes
southward across the SE CONUS. This will begin veering winds
across the area to the southwest, continuing to advect warmer air
in from the south. This will help in keeping the current trend of
abnormally warm temperatures, with afternoon highs in the mid to
upper 90s. Heat indices will likewise climb into the 105-110 range
for most areas, but scattered showers and thunderstorms could
provide some relief wherever they form. Conditions will not be as
favorable for severe thunderstorms, but we could still see a few
strong storms capable of producing small hail, gusty winds,
frequent lightning, and heavy downpours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Over the weekend, the mid-level trough will advect eastward through
the Florida Peninsula. An attendant surface frontal boundary will
drift across the southeast US before stalling out, causing winds to
shift to a west-southwest regime for the weekend, although winds
will be generally light as a whole. The daily sea breezes and
forcing for ascent from the trough will provide necessary energy
for daily isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to
develop. PoPs will be around 50-60% for most locations this
weekend and convection should trend more towards the east coast
compared to the west coast under light west-southwest flow. High
temperatures could reach the mid to upper 90s each day, with areas
in the interior potentially topping out in the triple digits.
Heat indices will likewise climb into the mid 100s for most areas
under southwest flow, and thus there will be potential for heat
advisories.

For early next week, guidance starts to vary more drastically.
Overall, most guidance is hinting at the potential for a tropical
disturbance to form in the Caribbean which would have the potential
to impact the region at some point. However, with it being near the
end of the forecast period, uncertainty is very high. Some solutions
highlight potential for the disturbance to impact parts of South
Florida while others show no impactful weather. Therefore, this
potential system needs to be taken with a grain of salt for now, but
if it continues to show signs of materializing in future guidance
and has a chance to pose threats to South Florida, then potential
impacts will be described.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 122 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Showers and/or thunderstorms may bring brief periods of sub-VFR
cigs/vis to all terminals through the evening, but otherwise VFR
conditions for the 18Z TAF period. SE winds increase 10 kt this
afternoon will become light and variable later in the evening.
Only exception will be APF where a westerly flow develops with
afternoon Gulf breezes. Another round of showers and thunderstorms
will be possible on Friday afternoon, especially for the Atlantic
terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 122 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Generally benign boating conditions should prevail across the
coastal waters through the weekend, with winds in the 5-10kt
range. Only exception will be in the vicinity of any thunderstorm
that forms, which will bring brief periods of rough seas and gusty
winds. Seas will remain in the 2 to 3 feet range in the Atlantic
waters, and 2 feet or less in the Gulf waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            79  91  79  92 /  30  60  40  60
West Kendall     75  93  76  94 /  30  60  40  60
Opa-Locka        78  93  78  94 /  30  60  40  60
Homestead        77  91  77  91 /  20  60  40  70
Fort Lauderdale  80  91  79  91 /  30  60  40  60
N Ft Lauderdale  79  92  78  93 /  20  60  40  60
Pembroke Pines   79  95  79  96 /  30  60  40  60
West Palm Beach  77  94  76  93 /  20  60  40  60
Boca Raton       78  93  77  94 /  20  60  40  60
Naples           77  92  79  92 /  30  60  20  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Culver
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...Culver