551
FXUS62 KMFL 051143
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
743 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

The surface ridge will continue to lose its strength on
Wednesday, but will remain enough of a factor to keep a general
easterly wind regime in the low levels and at the surface.
However, a slight veering to an E-SE direction is likely since the
high is weakening and a shortwave trough of low pressure begins
to approach from the Gulf. With the surface high still hovering
nearby, subsidence and mid- level drier air will inhibit the
overall convective potential particularly from a large scale
perspective. Nevertheless, the gulf and sea breezes will act as
sources of lift during the afternoon and evening hours with some
scattered showers and thunderstorms developing. Highest PoPs will
be towards the interior and west coast around 40-50% as an
easterly- southeasterly regime favors those areas. The main
hazards will be locally heavy rain, gusty winds and frequent
lightning with any storms. Temperatures are expected in the upper
80s to low 90s near the coasts and mid to upper 90s over the
interior sections.

Heading into Thursday, large scale troughing will set up across
the eastern Seaboard with a mid-level shortwave forming along the
southern edge of it. This will assist in helping provide an extra
lifting mechanism in addition to the daily afternoon sea and gulf
breezes, which is likely to result in convective showers and
storms becoming more widespread on Thursday. Hazard potential will
continue to be for periods of heavy rain, gusty winds, hail, and
frequent lightning. Temperatures could see a slight uptick on
Thursday with the vast majority of locations likely reaching the
90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

As the weekend approaches, the southern edge of the synoptic
scale trough axis will swing through the Florida Peninsula. In
response to this, the low level wind regime will shift
westerly/southwesterly and reverse the areas favored for
precipitation to the east coast metro and eastern interior areas
as the east coast sea breeze will not be able to penetrate inland
and will stall over the east coast metro. Thus, expect the brunt
of showers and thunderstorms that form in the South Florida region
to be observed over the east coast metro. The main energy from
this trough will depart the region by Sunday morning, which then
allows subtropical high pressure over the Atlantic to expand back
over South Florida again. In addition, drier air will filter into
the area, helping to further minimize convective potential. That
said, daily isolated to scattered showers and storms will still be
possible as a result of mesoscale boundaries.

For early next week, guidance starts to vary more drastically as
some guidance highlights potential for a tropical wave to impact
the area and other guidance shows it avoiding the area. If this
feature continues to show signs of materializing in future
guidance and could pose threats to our region, then potential
impacts will be described. However, conditions are highly
uncertain at this time and thus this needs to be taken with a
grain of salt for now.

Temperatures are expected to increase in the weekend timeframe
with mid to upper 90s expected for most areas, except likely in
the low 90s for the west coast. Some spots in the interior have
the potential to hit triple digits. Furthermore, heat indices will
climb into the mid 100s for most areas under southwest flow, and
thus there will be potential for heat advisories.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 703 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

VFR continues at all terminals through around 15Z, then VCSH could
result in brief sub-VFR cigs/vis for the Atlantic sites. APF has
better chances at thunderstorm activity after 18Z. ESE Winds
increase to around 10kt this afternoon, then light and variable
later in the evening. Only exception will be APF where a westerly
flow develops with afternoon Gulf breezes.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Benign conditions will be in place for the rest of the week with
seas at 2 feet or less and winds mostly at 5-10kts. The only
concerns will arise when any scattered showers or storms are
observed on a local scale each day, which may create locally
chaotic seas.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

A moderate risk of rip currents expected today for all Atlantic
beaches as easterly winds prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            90  80  92  79 /  50  30  60  40
West Kendall     91  76  93  76 /  50  30  60  30
Opa-Locka        91  79  93  78 /  50  30  60  40
Homestead        89  77  91  77 /  50  30  60  40
Fort Lauderdale  89  80  90  79 /  50  30  60  40
N Ft Lauderdale  89  79  91  78 /  50  30  60  40
Pembroke Pines   93  80  94  79 /  50  30  60  40
West Palm Beach  90  77  93  75 /  50  30  60  30
Boca Raton       91  77  93  77 /  50  30  60  40
Naples           93  78  93  78 /  50  40  50  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...Culver