223
FXUS62 KMFL 050715
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
315 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...


.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

The surface ridge will continue to lose its strength on Wednesday, but will
remain enough of a factor to keep a general easterly wind regime
in the low levels and at the surface. However, a slight veering to
an E-SE direction is likely since the high is weakening and a shortwave
trough of low pressure begins to approach from the Gulf. With the surface
high still hovering nearby, subsidence and mid- level drier air will
inhibit the overall convective potential particularly from a large scale
perspective. Nevertheless, the gulf and sea breezes will act as sources
of lift during the afternoon and evening hours with some scattered showers
and thunderstorms developing. Highest PoPs will be towards the interior
and west coast around 40-50% as an easterly- southeasterly regime favors
those areas. The main hazards will be locally heavy rain, gusty winds
and frequent lightning with any storms. Temperatures are expected in
the upper 80s to low 90s near the coasts and mid to upper 90s over the
interior sections.

Heading into Thursday, large scale troughing will set up across the eastern
Seaboard with a mid-level shortwave forming along the southern
edge of it. This will assist in helping provide an extra lifting
mechanism in addition to the daily afternoon sea and gulf breezes,
which is likely to result in convective showers and storms becoming
more widespread on Thursday. Hazard potential will continue to be
for periods of heavy rain, gusty winds and frequent lightning.
Temperatures could see a slight uptick on Thursday with the vast
majority of locations likely reaching the 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

As the weekend approaches, the southern edge of the synoptic scale
trough axis will swing through the Florida Peninsula. In response
to this, the low level wind regime will shift westerly/southwesterly
and reverse the areas favored for precipitation to the east coast
metro and eastern interior areas as the east coast sea breeze
will not be able to penetrate inland and will stall over the east
coast metro. Thus, expect the brunt of showers and thunderstorms
that form in the South Florida region to be observed over the east
coast metro. The main energy from this trough will depart the
region by Sunday morning, which then allows subtropical high
pressure over the Atlantic to expand back over South Florida
again. In addition, drier air will filter into the area, helping
to further minimize convective potential. That said, daily
isolated to scattered showers and storms will still be possible as
a result of mesoscale boundaries.

For early next week, guidance starts to vary more drastically as some
guidance highlights potential for a tropical wave to impact the area
and other guidance shows it avoiding the area. If this feature continues
to show signs of materializing in future guidance and could pose threats
to our region, then potential impacts will be described. However,
conditions are highly uncertain at this time and thus this needs to
be taken with a grain of salt for now.

Temperatures are expected to increase in the weekend timeframe with mid
to upper 90s expected for most areas, except likely in the low 90s
for the west coast. Some spots in the interior have the potential
to hit triple digits. Furthermore, heat indices will climb into the
mid 100s for most areas under southwest flow, and thus there will
be potential for heat advisories.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 115 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

VFR continues at all terminals through around 15Z, then VCSH could
result in brief Sub-VFR cigs/vis for the Atlantic sites. APF has
better chances at thunderstorm activity after 18Z. ESE Winds
increase to around 10kt this afternoon, then light and variable
later in the evening. Only exception will be APF where a westerly
flow develops with afternoon Gulf breezes.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Benign conditions will be in place for the rest of the week with seas at
2 feet or less and winds mostly at 5-10kts. The only concerns will
arise when any scattered showers or storms are observed on a local
scale each day, which may create locally chaotic seas.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

A moderate risk of rip currents expected today for all Atlantic
beaches as easterly winds prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            90  79  92  79 /  30  20  50  40
West Kendall     91  75  93  77 /  40  20  60  40
Opa-Locka        91  78  93  78 /  30  20  50  40
Homestead        88  78  90  79 /  30  20  50  40
Fort Lauderdale  89  79  90  78 /  30  20  50  40
N Ft Lauderdale  89  79  91  78 /  30  20  50  40
Pembroke Pines   91  79  93  78 /  30  20  50  40
West Palm Beach  90  77  92  76 /  30  20  50  50
Boca Raton       90  79  90  78 /  30  20  40  40
Naples           92  78  90  78 /  40  50  50  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE....WR
AVIATION/BEACHES...17