281
FXUS66 KMFR 102122
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
222 PM PDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.DISCUSSION...The area is heading into a rather quiet period for
the next week or so, and although there is a pattern change
expected by next weekend, there will not be much in the way of
impactful weather through at least next weekend.

Currently, ridging extends north over the Pacific Northwest, with
a closed low off the coast of southern California, and a large
trough in the Gulf of Alaska. This general pattern will remain
virtually unchanged through the rest of the week, although a
passing shortwave to our north will flatten out the ridge
midweek, producing more zonal flow over the area midweek. Overall,
this will produce warm and dry conditions through Thursday, with
daily highs running roughly 10 to 15 degrees above normal for this
time of year.

Beginning Friday, the closed low to our south will weaken and
push onshore through the Great Basin, breaking the stagnant
pattern and allowing our ridge to shift east while the large
trough in the Gulf of Alaska nudges ever closer toward the Pacific
Northwest before finally passing over the area through the
weekend. This will result in a cooling trend, with temperatures
returning to near-normal values for early to mid June. The
precipitation chances, however, will depend on the exact track of
the trough, and where the main belt of moisture will travel. The
most likely scenario keeps both of these to the north, with
showers remaining confined to the coast, the Umpqua Basin, and the
western slopes of the Cascades north of Crater Lake. Should the
trough track a bit farther south, precipitation chances will also
shift south, although confidence in this scenario is much lower.
We will also need to keep an eye out for thunderstorm potential,
but with the low by then missing off the California coast, the
system will not be able to tap into the southerly moisture source
that we typically need for widespread convection.

In short, expect two seasons this week: dry conditions and warmer
than normal temperatures through Thursday, followed by cooler
conditions and the potential for showers through the weekend.
-BPN


&&

.AVIATION...10/18Z TAFs...LIFR ceilings/visibilities and also patchy
drizzle is peeling southward toward Brookings this morning.
Elsewhere any ceilings at the coast and Umpqua will dissipate by
early afternoon with VFR everywhere else and VFR will prevail today.
Gusty north winds (up to 25 kt) will develop at North Bend this
afternoon. Marine stratus with MVFR/IFR will likely return to the
same general areas along the coast this evening or overnight, but
probably not as far inland, while VFR continues to prevail
everywhere else. -Schaaf/Spilde

&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 PM Monday, June 10, 2024...A persistent
thermal trough will bring gusty north winds and steep seas south of
Cape Blanco today through tonight. Winds and seas subside briefly
early Tuesday, but north winds increase again Tuesday afternoon
through Wednesday as another moderate west swell arrives. Have
extended the small craft advisory and have also issued a hazardous
seas watch for this potential. On Wednesday, the potential for gales
and very steep, hazardous seas south of Cape Blanco will further
occur. Will wait until the details come in better focus to issue the
gales. Winds and seas remain elevated through Thursday, but should
lower some late in the week. -Spilde


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Tuesday
     for PZZ356-376.

&&

$$