663
FXUS66 KMFR 110534
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1034 PM PDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.DISCUSSION...An update is not necessary. A dry front moving
across Washington on Tuesday will bring an increased pressure
gradient with stronger, gusty, breezy westerly afternoon winds.
But, high pressure aloft will be the dominant feature through
Thursday with inland temperatures remaining several to a dozen
degrees above normal.

A weakening front on Friday will bring another nudge higher to the
speed of gusty afternoon westerly winds, and usher in temperatures
that will trend to several degrees below normal by Sunday. This
includes a deeper marine push Friday evening into Saturday morning
with a few light coastal showers possible. A more broad impact
with chances of wet weather currently looks to hold off until
Sunday night. A stronger trough may arrive on Day 8/Tuesday.

-DW

&&

.AVIATION...11/06Z TAFs...VFR ceilings will persist away from the
coast through the TAF period. IFR ceilings are anticipated to build
into the coast again tonight near North Bend as high pressure and
a strong inversion remain present. Some MVFR ceilings should move
into the coast around Tuesday morning and afternoon as plenty of
moisture remains present in the boundary layer. A cold front with
some modest vertical lift ahead of a dry cold front will aid in
the coastal cloud cover. We`ll see those ceilings clear out later
Tuesday evening.

-Smith

&&

.MARINE...Updated 800 PM Monday, June 10, 2024...A persistent
thermal trough will bring gusty north winds and steep seas south of
Cape Blanco through tonight. Winds and seas subside briefly early
Tuesday, but north winds increase again Tuesday afternoon through
Wednesday as another moderate west swell arrives. We have extended
the small craft advisory and have also issued a hazardous seas watch
for this potential. On Wednesday, the potential for gales and very
steep, hazardous seas south of Cape Blanco will further occur. We
will wait until the details come in better focus to issue the gales.
Winds and seas remain elevated through Thursday, but should lower
some late in the week. -Spilde/Smith

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...  /Issued 222 PM PDT Mon Jun 10 2024/

DISCUSSION...The area is heading into a rather quiet period for
the next week or so, and although there is a pattern change
expected by next weekend, there will not be much in the way of
impactful weather through at least next weekend.

Currently, ridging extends north over the Pacific Northwest, with
a closed low off the coast of southern California, and a large
trough in the Gulf of Alaska. This general pattern will remain
virtually unchanged through the rest of the week, although a
passing shortwave to our north will flatten out the ridge
midweek, producing more zonal flow over the area midweek. Overall,
this will produce warm and dry conditions through Thursday, with
daily highs running roughly 10 to 15 degrees above normal for this
time of year.

Beginning Friday, the closed low to our south will weaken and
push onshore through the Great Basin, breaking the stagnant
pattern and allowing our ridge to shift east while the large
trough in the Gulf of Alaska nudges ever closer toward the Pacific
Northwest before finally passing over the area through the
weekend. This will result in a cooling trend, with temperatures
returning to near-normal values for early to mid June. The
precipitation chances, however, will depend on the exact track of
the trough, and where the main belt of moisture will travel. The
most likely scenario keeps both of these to the north, with
showers remaining confined to the coast, the Umpqua Basin, and the
western slopes of the Cascades north of Crater Lake. Should the
trough track a bit farther south, precipitation chances will also
shift south, although confidence in this scenario is much lower.
We will also need to keep an eye out for thunderstorm potential,
but with the low by then missing off the California coast, the
system will not be able to tap into the southerly moisture source
that we typically need for widespread convection.

In short, expect two seasons this week: dry conditions and warmer
than normal temperatures through Thursday, followed by cooler
conditions and the potential for showers through the weekend.

-BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT
     Wednesday for PZZ356.

Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Tuesday to 11 AM PDT Wednesday
     for PZZ350-370.

     Hazardous Seas Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
     morning for PZZ350-356-370-376.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Tuesday for PZZ376.

&&

$$