589
FXUS62 KMHX 221137
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
737 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in from the north keeping much of the area
dry through Thursday before the next potential frontal system
moves through late week through the weekend and brings a return
to unsettled weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 600 AM Wednesday. Widespread dense fog has set up through
much of the region, except for OBX and extreme western portions
of the CWA. Land fog should burn off by 9am.

Previous Discussion...As of 200 AM Wednesday...Guidance
continues to back off on fog/stratus development offshore of
NOBX. Along and west of hwy 17 continues to be the main fog
concern for tonight with high pressure overhead and calm winds
resulting in dew point depressions near 0 and ample low level
moisture. Current indication is Pitt and Martin counties will be
spared from the most dense fog, but areas south are likely to
experience 1/4 mile or less visibilities early this morning.
Introduced Widespread fog with 1/4SM vis mentions with this
update along hwy 17 from the Onslow/Duplin/Pender county borders
up to Washington, NC. Patchy dense fog is still possible
elsewhere in the CWA this morning.

Lows this morning will be in the upper 50s, near 60 through the
CWA.

Surface high pressure shifts further offshore today, with lee-
troughing developing east of the Appalachians. This will lead to
a modest increase in southerly flow across the coastal
Carolinas. The increased southerly flow plus warming thicknesses
beneath ridging aloft will support high topping out 5-10
degrees higher than today, in the mid to upper 80s inland.
While instability will steadily build, it appears there will be
enough of a cap beneath the ridge to keep the risk of afternoon
convection very low. The one exception is along the central OBX
where a coastal trough approaching from the east may support a
few showers near, or just offshore by the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
As of 200 AM Wednesday... Sfc high is offshore to our east
tonight, with ridging continuing to build over us at higher
levels from the SW. Quiet night in store, with lows in the low
to mid 60s inland, mid to upper 60s for beaches. Some patchy fog
is possible Wednesday night into early Thursday morning along
hwy 17, but confidence and impacts remain low enough to prevent
an inclusion in this forecast update.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...High pressure over the mid-Atlantic will
start moving east on Thursday due to an incoming surface trough.
Unsettled weather will continue through the period with a
series of shortwaves forecast to move across the area. This will
bring multiple opportunities for showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday...High pressure across the mid-Atlantic will keep
things mostly dry on Thursday. Moisture will increase ahead of
an approaching surface trough, causing an increase in cloud
cover and PoPs during the evening and overnight hours. It will
be quite toasty with highs around 90 across the coastal plain
and around 80 at the beaches.

Friday - Tuesday...High pressure will move offshore and make way
for an active pattern that will last through the rest of the
period. With high pressure offshore and broad troughing across
the eastern US, southwesterly flow will have ENC within a warm
and humid airmass. Multiple shortwaves passing over the area
will create chance showers (25-45%) and thunderstorms each day.
Ensemble guidance shows multiple chances over the coming days
for sufficient CAPE and shear, which could generate some strong
to severe storms, especially in the afternoon and evening.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 06z Wednesday/...
As of 730 AM Wednesday...Solid LIFR/VLIFR conditions along and
east of hwy 17 (KEWN and KOAJ) will be improving over the next
hour, with all terminals reaching VFR by 13Z. Another day of
fair- weather diurnal CU out ahead of the seabreeze which will
turn light and var winds more Serly in the afternoon and
evening. Another round of patchy fog is possible Wednesday
night, but much less impactful than the fog experienced this
morning and not worthy of a TAF mention at this time.


LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...Pred VFR conditions are expected through
most of Thursday. The weather will become more unsettled on
Friday and continue through the weekend with multiple rounds of
showers and thunderstorms possible. Periods of sub-VFR
visibilities and ceilings are expected.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Wednesday/...
As of 730 AM Wednesday...Marine dense fog advisories for inland
rivers, Albemarle Sound, and Coastal waters from Cape Lookout to
Surf City are expected to drop later this morning as conditions
improve. There is some more uncertainty however with the end
time of the dense fog, as marine fog tends to linger longer than
models suggest.

As of 240 AM Wednesday...Recent iterations of the quick refresh
HiRes guidance have continued backing off on fog/stratus
development offshore of NOBX this morning. Fog for inland sounds
and rivers are still possible through the early morning. Light
winds will allow seas to continue to lay down, with good boating
conditions for most waters during the daylight hours Wednesday.
Another chance of fog Wednesday night, but impacts are expected
to be much lower than this morning`s potential.

LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...SW winds around 10 kt will increase to
10-15 kt with gusts to 15-20 kt later Thursday. This wind
regime, as well as 2-3 ft seas and multiple chances for showers
and thunderstorms, will stick around through the period.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NCZ045>047-
     080-081-092-094-193-194-198.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for AMZ131-136-
     137-230.
     Dense Fog Advisory until noon EDT today for AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...OJC
AVIATION...OJC/RJ
MARINE...OJC/RJ