940
FXUS63 KMPX 041156
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
656 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Today...A line of thunderstorms will move through the area
  this afternoon & evening. Damaging winds and large hail are
  the primary threats, with a tornado or two are possible across
  mainly central/eastern Minnesota & western Wisconsin.
  Widespread rainfall amounts of 0.5-1" could exacerbate ongoing
  flooding, especially where locally higher amounts occur.

- Rest of the week...Breezy northwest wind gusts 25 to 35 mph
  Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday along with drier conditions.

- Looking ahead, the drier trend continues into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

TODAY...No major changes from the previous forecast. Confidence
remains high that storms will develop late morning or early
afternoon across west central Minnesota, and move eastward
across the region. This should be a solid area of showers and
thunderstorms, so pretty much everyone will see rain. Amounts
will range from less than a half inch across western Minnesota,
to likely near an inch across eastern MN and western WI. The 00Z
HREF local probability matched mean showers a few pockets of
around 2 inches, which seems reasonable if multiple storms track
across the same area. Overall, the heavy rain threat with this
system is less than the previous system given the progressive
nature of the line.

The severe weather risk remains nearly unchanged across the
region. There is a noteworthy elevated mixed layer above a weak
capping inversion, and that should hold off convection until
the stronger forcing arrive, allowing surface instability to
build with MLCAPE values near 2000 J/kg by the afternoon. As
mentioned in the previous discussion, the wind profile can be
characterized as linear and mostly parallel to the north/south
line of storms. For that reason, expect storms to form a line,
with the main severe threat tied to storms shortly after
initiation, or any storms that manage to develop ahead of the
line. 0-3km shear profiles could be sufficient for developing
QLCS mesovortices if any segment of the line manages to get an
west-to-east surge or bow.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...Overall drier conditions are
expected from Wednesday into next week. Northwest flow will
bring cooler and drier air across the region. In this cold air
advection regime, expect clear skies in the morning, with
afternoon cumulus building and potential for scattered showers
and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. Any
shortwave trough embedded in the northwest flow that rotates
across the region will aid in the shower/thunderstorm
development. However, these will not produce heavy rain, but
could manage to drop some small hail and gusty winds. Speaking
of winds, forecast soundings show deep mixing during the day, so
expect wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph for Wednesday through Friday
during the late morning into the early evening. These winds will
drop off after sunset, but should remain fairly steady
overnight. Temperatures will be just on the cool side for early
June, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. No significant
rainfall is expected into next week as the persistent northwest
flow keeps the summer moisture well to the south.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 644 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

VFR conditions this morning, except at KEAU where some pesky
stratus will linger for a few more hours. Later today a line of
thunderstorms will develop across western Minnesota and move
eastward during the afternoon and evening. All TAF sites are
expected to be impacted for a few hours by this line of storms.
There is a chance for MVFR clouds to follow after the line
passes through.

KMSP...VFR conditions this morning, but a line of storms will
develop out west and impact KMSP this afternoon. Tried to narrow
down the timing in the TAFS, and should see IFR (possibly LIFR)
visbys when the line moves through. Gusty winds and hail are
possible. Looking ahead, west/northwest winds will develop
overnight into Wednesday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. Chc of afternoon SHRA/TSRA. Wind W 15-20G30 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind NW 15-20G35 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...JRB