Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 262324
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
624 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A RATHER IMPRESSIVE WRAPPED UP SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH INTO
WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. A TROPICAL AND VERY EFFICIENT ATMOSPHERE
WITH SLOW MOVING CELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER DEFORMATION RAIN
SHIELD HAS LED TO HEAVY RAINFALL RATES IN AREAS TODAY. REPORTS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES WITHIN 30 TO 60 MINUTES HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM THE
METRO. MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING ACROSS SRN/ERN MN AND WRN WI BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF.
THE BAND OF RAIN WILL ESSENTIALLY SHRINK FROM THE WEST AND EAST THIS
EVENING...LEAVING A GOOD POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT NEAR THE MN/WI BORDER PER THE CONSISTENT HRRR
REFLECTIVITY FORECAST AND PATTERN RECOGNITION. THUNDER HAS BEEN
ABSENT FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS AND NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH GIVEN THE
POOR LAPSE RATES AND TROPICAL AIRMASS. RADAR REFLECTIVITY DOES NOT
LOOK PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT RAINFALL RATES WILL REMAIN HIGH
DUE TO THE HIGH PW VALUES AND ABOVE AVERAGE ATMOSPHERIC EFFICIENCY.

THE SYSTEM WILL PULL AWAY LATE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MAY ROTATE AROUND IT ACROSS NRN MN AND WI WEDNESDAY. A CAPLESS
ATMOSPHERE AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME CAPE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NWRN
WI WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE HIGHEST...MAY SPARK A COUPLE
AFTERNOON STORMS. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S STILL LOOK GOOD AND ALL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THOSE
VALUES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THE LONG TERM TREND STARTS OUT WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS INTO
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY 00Z
FRIDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE POPS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
AREA BY THAT TIME. THE EAST SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT
AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO EASTERN MN BY 12Z FRIDAY. EXPECT ORGANIZED
THUNDER...AND THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER ASSOCIATED
WITH IT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA.

THIS ALL SHIFTS EAST INTO EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WISCONSIN INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. MUCAPE VALUES INCREASE TO 2500 J/KG OVER
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SIMILAR
VALUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO 1.5
INCHES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS LACKING. HEAVY RAINFALL IS A THREAT AND
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST AN ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ALONG THE FRONT.

MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARRIVE INTO THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. THE CFSV2 PLUME OUTLOOK HAS INDICATED THIS TREND FOR THE
LAST FEW DAYS. THIS WILL GENERATE MAX TEMPERATURES SOME 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGES FOR THAT PERIOD. WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARRIVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAIN AVIATION IMPACT WILL BE THE EASTERN 1/4 OF MPX CWA WITH
IFR/MVFR CIGS WITH SOME MVFR VSBYS IN -RA THRU 3-6Z. AFT
6Z...CONDS SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF FOG FORMING.

A CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRA ACROSS FAR EASTERN
MN/WESTERN WI WAS EAST OF KLSE WITH THE MAIN AREA SLOWLY MOVING TO
THE E/NE AND DISSIPATING ON THE WESTERN EDGE AS DRYING AIR FILTERS
N/NW INTO OUR REGION. BEST SCENARIO IS TO HOLD ONTO THE IFR/MVFR
CIGS THRU 6Z FOR BOTH KRNH/KEAU. ELSEWHERE...A SMALL WINDOW OF
MVFR CIGS AT KRWF. OTHERWISE...VFR WITH WINDS BECOMING W/NW.
KRNH/KEAU WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR CONDS THRU 9-12Z...WITH VFR CONDS
DEVELOPING AFT 12Z. FOG IS ALSO LIKELY IF SKIES CLR OR BECOME
PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. SOME VCSH/VCTS IS POSSIBLE
AT BOTH KRNH/KEAU AFT 18Z BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO INCLUDE IN
THIS TAF.

KMSP...

A BRIEF WINDOW OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THRU 2Z...THEN VFR WITH SOME BR
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
W/WNW TOMORROW ARND 10 KTS. AN OUTSIDE CHC OF VCSH/VCTS AFT 21Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

THU...VFR. CHC AFTN -SHRA/-TSRA. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
FRI...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS BCMG
NNW AT 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NE 10-15 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...JLT



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