


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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316 FXUS63 KMPX 132001 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 301 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Storm chances lessening for this evening. - Continued rounds of Canadian wildfire smoke and poor air quality possible through Monday. - Widespread rain chances will come Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday night. Severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon & evening, with an excessive rain threat existing through the whole period. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 235 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 This morning`s smoke has dispersed to the east, as can be reflected by area visibilities returning to 10 miles or greater. The current air quality remains in the moderate (yellow) category and an Air Quality Alert remains in effect through Monday morning in Minnesota and through noon in Wisconsin. It is possible we will see another bout of smoke Monday, but for now, it is forecast to stay in the northern third of Minnesota. Otherwise, mostly clear conditions across the region, with a small chance for storms in west central Minnesota around 7PM tonight. These storms, should they come to fruition, would be widely scattered and not stick around for long given lackluster mid-level support. That said, MLCAPE greater than 2000 J/Kg, moderate deep layer shear, and little CIN gives the chance for storms to initiate given the instability. Storms would be diurnal in nature, and collapse before making it to eastern Minnesota. All of this to say, it will likely be dry for most tonight. As alluded to above, Monday could bring another round of smoke. However, according to the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency, most of southern Minnesota shouldn`t exceed the yellow (moderate) category. Northern Minnesota (Duluth to Bemidji and north) will see red (unhealthy) category, but how far south it expands remains the question at hand. Monday will be dry and warm ahead of a wet and warm midweek. A positively tilted trough will span the CONUS in conjunction with a warm front over the area. This warm front could lead to several inches of rain in Minnesota. The ECMWF Ens puts PWATs at 160% of normal for the Tuesday night into Wednesday period (roughly equivalent to 1.7-1.8"). The trickiest part with this set up is where the heaviest downpours will occur and if an area is repeatedly hit with rain. For now, two day QPF has highest amounts across west central Minnesota around 2-2.5" (in alignment with WPC`s Slight for the Day 3 Excessive Rain Outlook). Farther east and south of a line from St. Cloud to Redwood Falls, amounts lessen to 1-1.5". Farther south and east yet, and we see amounts under an inch. The more likely scenario will be pockets of 3" (maybe more) with a good soaking of 0.5-1.0" everywhere. The main limiting factor for the heavy rain threat is due to chance for several waves (vs. nonstop rain) given the nature of the upper level wave slowly moving across the north central CONUS. This will mean we get some breaks between each round of rain, with each subsequent round likely to fall slightly farther south than the previous. We will be keeping a close eye on this in the coming days and adjust our forecast accordingly. In addition to the rain, it will be hot and muggy through Tuesday. Highs in the upper 80s with dewpoints in the low 70s will be unpleasant, and potentially lead to heat headlines. To end the upcoming workweek, we will have cool high pressure from Canada. This will mean highs in the 70s, but as it is coming from Canada, there could be a renewed threat for reduced air quality from wildfire smoke. Seasonably strong zonal flow along the US/Canada border next weekend, which means we should continue to see a parade of waves moving across the region, with no prolonged stretches of dry weather expected anytime soon. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1247 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 VFR with MVFR TSRA possible later this afternoon and more smoke MVFR smoke tomorrow. The first wave of wildfire smoke has cleared most sites early this afternoon with EAU refusing to let go if its hold on MVFR vsby. Conditions there should improve in the next hour or so as smoke continues to push eastward. Winds today will be southwesterly with a few gusts nearing 20kts but of course decreasing after sunset and becoming light and variable. A few isolated areas of SHRA/TSRA possible later this evening between 00- 4z. As of now, included a PROB30 for RWF and STC where any precip looks most probable. For our WI sites, a brief period of MVFR/IFR fog is possible before our second wave of MVFR smoke return from the north for most sites. RWF and MKT are practically on the southern periphery of the smoke`s extent thus did not include MVFR FU mentions in their specific TAFs. Winds tomorrow will become S/SW tomorrow near 10kts. KMSP...Slight chance of iso-SHRA/TSRA this later this evening but strongest chances remain well west of the field. Crosswind gusts across the parallels near 20kts this afternoon before decreasing after 00z. Winds become light and variable overnight before returning to the S/SW around 10kts tomorrow. MVFR smoke returns mid- morning tomorrow but vsby not expected to fall below 4SM. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR, TSRA likely evening/overnight. Wind SW 10-15 kts. WED...MVFR, chc IFR/-TSRA. Wind NE 5-10 kts. THU...VFR, Wind NE 5-10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...PV AVIATION...Dunleavy