000
FXUS63 KMPX 081112
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
512 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 502 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

THINGS WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE
CURRENTLY TO OUR NORTHWEST DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THE
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY BREAK UP AS RIDGING WORKS INTO THE AREA... AND THIS TREND
SHOULD CONTINUE AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE UPSTREAM
CLOUD COVER OVER THE DAKOTAS IS A BIT MORE CONCERNING... SINCE IT
ISN/T BEING PARTICULARLY WELL HANDLED BY THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. THE
RAP HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON WHERE IT CURRENTLY IS... BUT IT WANTS TO
BREAK IT UP FAIRLY QUICKLY AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING.
FOR NOW... TOOK A COMPROMISE STANCE... ALLOWING THESE CLOUDS TO MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA... BUT THEN WORKING TOWARD PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES IN GENERAL BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AS WE SEE A
BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER 925-850MB TEMPERATURES PASS ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER... RETURN FLOW WILL KICK IN TONIGHT... WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA. READINGS
IN THE FAR WEST WILL LIKELY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING BY SUNDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

THE LONG TERM CAN STILL BE SUMMED UP INTO ONE WORD...SNOWMELT!
TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD WILL BE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL...WITH ONE
CHANCE FOR A MINOR RAIN/SNOW MIX TUESDAY MORNING.

MAIN QUESTION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY IS HOW WARM DO WE GET BOTH
DAYS...AND HOW WARM DO LOWS REMAIN MONDAY MORNING. MODEL AGREEMENT
REMAINS HIGH ON THE AREA GETTING INTO A HEALTHY WARM SECTOR OF A
CLIPPER TYPE LOW TRACKING ESE ACROSS SRN CANADA MONDAY. NAM/ECMWF
SIMILAR WITH SHOWING A 925 MB WARM NOSE COMING UP INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MAX 925 MB TEMPS BETWEEN 10C AND 17C.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE MPX AREA LOOKS TO BE IN THE HEART OF THE WARM
NOSE AROUND 6Z MONDAY...WITH COOLER 925 MB TEMPS EXPECTED BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. STILL CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN THE
ENTIRE AREA GOING INTO THE 40S...WITH SOME LOWER 50S POSSIBLE OFF
THE BUFFALO RIDGE IN WC MN SUNDAY. MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
SUNDAY/MONDAY WAS TO INCREASE LOWS MONDAY MORNING GIVEN THE EXPECTED
WARM SECTOR OVERHEAD. FORECAST NOW HAS LOWS OF 32 OR GREATER
BASICALLY WEST OF THE MS RIVER...THOUGH EVEN THIS MAY BE TO COOL
GIVEN HOW WARM THE AIR AT 925MB WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR BOTH
DAYS...THE FORECAST HIGHS FAVOR THE MOS GUIDANCE /AS RAW NCEP MODELS
ARE OVER COOLING SFC TEMPS OVER THE SNOW/...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS
FAVOR THE WARMER RAW MODEL OUTPUT. MONDAY WILL FEATURE THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL USHER IN A SLIGHT COOLING OF TEMPERATURES
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
LOOK TO OFFER A REPEAT OF SUNDAY AND MONDAY /THOUGH WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER 925 MB TEMPS/.

RUNNING THE LOCAL SNOW LOSS TOOL FOR SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WE GOT
A GOOD 5-8 INCHES OF SNOW DEPTH LOSS FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK /MORE
WEST LESS EAST/. GIVEN CURRENT SNOW DEPTH ANALYSIS FROM DOWN THE
HALL AT THE NOHRSC...BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WE SHOULD SEE THE EDGE
OF THE SNOW PACK UP TO NEAR THE MINNESOTA RIVER IN SW MN...WITH ALL
BUT THE NE CWA LIKELY SEEING THE SNOW DEPTH BACK DOWN UNDER 10
INCHES. WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED...FLOOD CONCERNS ARE NOT HIGH...BUT WE
WILL HAVE TO BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR ICE JAMS NEXT WEEK AS ICED UP
AREA RIVERS BEGIN TO BREAKUP.

AS FOR THE LONE PRECIP CHANCE IN THE EXTENDED...MODELS ARE COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION GOING ACROSS SRN
MN...WHERE SOME LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED BETWEEN 6Z AND 18Z
TUESDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES RIGHT NOW COMING WITH HOW FAR NORTH
PRECIP MAKES IT. THE ECMWF/SREF ARE THE FARTHEST NORTH WITH
PRECIP...WHILE THE NAM/GFS/GEM ARE FATHER SOUTH...KEEPING THE BULK
OF QPF ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA. FORCING FOR THE PRECIP HAS NOT CHANGED
MUCH EITHER...WITH THIS PRECIP REGION SETTING UP WITHIN A COUPLED
JET AREA BETWEEN NRN STREAM ENERGY EXTENDING FROM MN INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND SRN STREAM ENERGY GOING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERMAL
PROFILES STILL SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN BEFORE TRANSITIONING
TO A WET SNOW AS CAA SLOWLY COOLS THE WARM NOSE AS THE PRECIP MOVES
IN. MOST MODELS SHOW AROUND 2 INCHES OF SNOW BEING POSSIBLE WITH
THIS PRECIP BAND TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE 6Z NAM DOES SHOW
THAT WE CAN NOT COMPLETELY LET OUR GUARD DOWN WITH THIS ONE...AS IT
LAYS DOWN THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF QPF WITH SNOW AMOUNTS OVER 6
INCHES FROM SW MN INTO NC IA. LIKE THE SYSTEM WE SAW TUESDAY...THERE
WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR A GOOD FGEN BAND TO SETUP TO THE NORTH OF WHAT
WILL BE A DEEPENING LOW GOING FROM KS/NEB INTO NRN MO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 502 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

THINGS WILL GENERALLY BE QUIET THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME ISSUES WITH VFR CEILINGS FOR A TIME
THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE
MINNESOTA/DAKOTAS BORDER WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.
NEAR-MVFR CEILINGS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA HAVE BEEN
BREAKING UP WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE WORKING ACROSS
THE REGION... BUT KEAU COULD STILL SEE SOME CEILINGS NEAR 030 FOR
A FEW HOURS. UPSTREAM... THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
SPILLING DOWN THE 700-500MB RIDGE AXIS OVER THE DAKOTAS. THIS IS
TENDING TO ERODE ON ITS EASTERN EDGE... BUT THE RAP SUGGESTS SOME
OF IT WILL AT LEAST IMPACT THE WESTERN SITES THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER... THESE CEILINGS ARE MAINLY IN THE 050-100 RANGE... SO
ANY BKN CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE VFR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY AS
THE HIGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA... BUT WILL PICK UP LATER TONIGHT
AS THEY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH.

KMSP...MAIN ITEM OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TAF IS WHETHER WE/LL SEE
ANY OF THE UPSTREAM VFR CEILINGS MAKE IT INTO THE AREA TODAY. FOR
NOW... KEPT THAT OUT OF THE FORECAST... BUT IT/S CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE SOME CEILINGS AROUND 070 COULD SNEAK IN FOR A TIME LATER
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE... THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES EXPECTED.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...VFR. SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 15 KT.
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. WEST WIND 5 TO 15 KT.
MONDAY...VFR. WEST WIND 5 TO 15 KT BECOMING NORTHWEST.
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
TUESDAY...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST WIND 5 TO 15 KT.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST WIND 5 TO 15 KT.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST WIND 5 TO 15 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...