337
FXUS62 KRAH 291800
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
200 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move through the area tonight, bringing a
reinforcing shot of cooler/drier air to the area for the rest of the
week. High pressure will build in behind the front and remain in
place across the Mid Atlantic through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 1006 AM Wednesday...

Mid morning water vapor imagery depicts upper level low pressure
over eastern Canada, with a trailing shortwave over Ohio. Farther
east, a weak surface ridge remains in place over Virginia with only
a few clouds across the Sandhills and Coastal Plain of North
Carolina. Temps this morning are generally in the mid 70s, with
noticeably lower dewpoints ranging from the mid 50s to lower 60s.

The Ohio shortwave and attendant weak surface cold front will cross
the mountains and slide into northern NC late this afternoon. While
widespread showers/thunderstorms are not anticipated, there will
likely be enough mid level moisture in place to support a few widely
scattered showers along the NC/VA border late this afternoon.
Instability is meager with only 100-250 J/KG of MLCAPE to work with
but there are a few CAMs that suggest the development of a few
showers just before sunset. Anything that forms will be short lived
and should dissipate just after sunset.

Temps today will range from the lower 80s in the NW to the upper 80s
in the southeast. Lows tonight generally in the mid to upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Wednesday...

With the Eastern US trough still overhead, an amplifying shortwave
trough will dive south through the Mid-Atlantic states during the
day, and then into NC through the overnight hours. PWATS will
continue to hover around the 10th percentile, with little to no
instability to work with. However, isolated showers/non-zero pops
are possible Thursday evening and into Thursday night, mainly across
eastern/coastal plain counties.

Otherwise, cooler as Canadian high pressure builds south into the
area. Highs ranging from mid/upper 70s north to lower 80s south.
Lows in the lower to middle 50s north to upper 50s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH Wednesday/...
As of 200 PM Wednesday...

* Unseasonably cool and notably less humid on Friday and Saturday.
* Turning warmer and more humid early next with with a limited
  threat of a shower or storm.

A vigorous mid and upper level trough will move off the mid-Atlantic
and Carolina coast early Friday followed by a north to northwest
flow aloft into Saturday. A narrow mid and upper level ridge will
move into the mid-Atlantic on Saturday and off the coast by Saturday
night. At the low levels, a cool and dry air mass will move into the
region on Friday morning with dew points in the 40s and low level
thickness values in the 1360s to start the day. The result will be a
really nice weather day on Friday with mainly clear skies with highs
3 to 8 degrees below average, generally ranging in the mid and upper
70s. Lows Friday night into Saturday morning will range in the upper
40s to lower 50s, or about 6 to 10 degrees below average. Expect an
increase in mid and high clouds on Saturday as the ridge axis moves
overhead and cirrus clouds spill into the area. It will remain dry
with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s, which is near or just a
degree or two below average.  A light southerly flow develops on
Saturday and especially Saturday night resulting some dew point
recovery. In addition, a disturbance aloft moves into the region
providing a bit more cloud cover. These features should result in
milder lows on Sunday morning in the mid and upper 50s.

The upper level pattern becomes more zonal early next week and a few
disturbances aloft move toward the region, especially on Tuesday and
Wednesday. With surface high pressure setting up off the Southeast
coast, a southwesterly flow develops early in the week and continues
through Wednesday. This will result in a moderating air mass and an
increase in deep level moisture. PW values increase from around 0.5
inches on Friday to more than 1.5 inches on Wednesday. Accordingly,
there is a very small risk of a shower or storm on Monday with a
marginally greater but still rather limited risk on Tuesday or
Wednesday with PoPs generally in the slight to very low chance
range. Highs by Tuesday and Wednesday will moderate into the upper
80s to lower 90s with lows in the mid to upper 60s. -Blaes
&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1246 PM Wednesday...

VFR weather across the region through the TAF period. A weak cold
front will drop through VA into northern NC this evening bringing a
brief period of gusty winds area-wide. Also a chance of a stray
shower around RWI, but areal coverage and confidence of occurrence
is too low to include in the 18Z TAF issuance. Skies will clear area-
wide this evening through early Thursday afternoon.

Outlook: Dry VFR weather likely through Saturday with high pressure
overhead/offshore. As the high moves offshore Sunday, return flow
will advect moisture into the area with stratus/non-VFR weather
possible Sunday and Monday. Chances for rain will also return Sunday
through early next week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Leins
NEAR TERM...Leins
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...Blaes
AVIATION...Leins