Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS62 KRAH 011926
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
325 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BENEATH PREVAILING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.  A COLD FRONT MOVE INTO AND
STALL OVER OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...AND LINGER OVERHEAD THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM WEDNESDAY...

ISOLATED CONVECTION HIGHLY PROBABLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY THIS
EVENING AS SLIGHT INSTABILITY AND WEAK FORCING SHOULD
INITIATE/SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS FOR ENOUGH TIME TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS
OR STORMS. WHILE MOST OF THE SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE MINIMAL OR
WEAK...ENOUGH DOWNDRAFT CAPE EXISTS OVER SECTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT TO
CAUSE STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. DUE TO
WESTERLY STEERING FLOW ALOFT...SOME CONVECTION THAT FIRES OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN NC WILL DRIFT EAST-SE AND POSSIBLY MAKE IT
INTO THE YADKIN/PEE DEE RIVER VALLEY AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
IN ADDITION...A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL VORT MAX OVER THE TN VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST. THIS SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE MAY INITIATE AND/OR SUSTAIN A FEW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU...MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 1.

MIN TEMPS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 65-70 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM WEDNESDAY...

 AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS PERIOD. INITIAL
VORT MAX AND ATTENDANT SHEAR AXIS WILL EXIT THE AREA EARLY
THU...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BUT SLIGHTLY STRONGER VORT MAX THAT WILL
CROSS OUR REGION LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. BULK OF GUIDANCE
SUGGEST BEST FORCING (THOUGH NOT OVERWHELMING) WILL OCCUR IN
VICINITY OF THE 850-700MB TROUGH...CLOSER TO THE VIRGINIA BORDER.
THUS SHOULD SEE BETTER COVERAGE OF SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES VERSUS THE SOUTH. THUS PLAN TO GRADUATE POPS FROM
LOW END LIKELY FAR NORTH-NW TO CHANCE POPS FAR SOUTH. THIS...IN
TURN...WILL LEAD TO A SIMILAR TEMP GRADIENT WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS IN
THE LOW/MID 80S NORTH WHERE CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL BE MORE
EXTENSIVE...TO THE UPPER 80S-AROUND 90 SOUTH WHERE PARTIAL AND FEWER
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.

WHILE SOME BULK SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 20-25KTS ACROSS THE NORTH MAY
LEAD TO SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE BANDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY SHOULD
LIMIT SEVERE THREAT. ACROSS THE SOUTH...IF ENOUGH PARTIAL SUN
OCCURS...AVAILABLE DOWNDRAFT CAPE MAY PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

THE SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST WELL INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH A TEMPORARY LULL POSSIBLE WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM WEDNESDAY...

PROGRESSIVE AND ACTIVE UPPER PATTERN FEATURING A GENERAL WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. DISTURBANCES IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE AREA
ATOP A PERSISTENT FRONTAL ZONE WHICH WILL BE ALIGNED WEST-EAST IN
THE VICINITY OF NC THROUGH THE PERIOD. EARLY IN THE EXTENDED...AN
INITIAL DISTURBANCE WILL BE SKIRTING ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND
WILL MAINTAIN OUR ONGOING LIKELY POPS AREA-WIDE...GRADUATED HIGHER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES CONCERNING THE
TIMING OF LATER DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO ENHANCE THE CHANCE OF
CONVECTION EACH DAY...ALTHOUGH THE TREND WILL STILL TEND TO FAVOR A
DIURNAL PATTERN OF INCREASED COVERAGE AND STRENGTH DURING MAX
HEATING. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 80S NORTH
TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTH...SUBJECT TO DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWER COVERAGE. MORNING LOWS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER
SIDE OF 70.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM WEDNESDAY...

THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
CENTRAL NC FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BE ISOLATED. A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE NIGHT AS AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVER
CENTRAL NC LATE NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH AN INCREASED
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS.

A STALLED FRONT OVER THE REGION LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
IN ADDITION...PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CAUSE AREAS OF STRATUS TO DEVELOP LATE AT NIGHT AND PERSIST
INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THE ABOVE SCENARIO WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL
HOURS OF MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS EACH DAY FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...WSS



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.