Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000
FXUS62 KRAH 061839
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
239 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS WEEKEND...WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST DPVA /SHORTWAVE ENERGY/
ROTATING AROUND THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF
CENTRAL NC (ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC) THROUGH
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN BROADER/WEAKER UPPER LEVEL FORCING THIS
AFTERNOON (IN COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY)...PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF
CYCLONIC SHEAR/CURVATURE VORTICITY. DESPITE MARGINAL SFC MOISTURE
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES /COOL TEMPS ALOFT/ AND INSOLATION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
MARGINAL/SHALLOW DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON...ON THE ORDER OF
100-250 J/KG...WITH EFFECTIVE EQUIL. LEVELS ~10-15 KFT GIVEN THAT
THE BULK OF POSITIVE ENERGY WILL BE AT/BELOW THE 700 MB LEVEL. WITH
THE ABOVE IN MIND...EXPECT SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ALONG/EAST OF HWY 1 (IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE SFC-H85 TROUGH ALONG THE NC COAST) WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
GREATER. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON
GIVEN WEAKER UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND THAT THE BULK OF POSITIVE ENERGY
/CAPE/ IS LOCATED BENEATH THE -10 TO -20C ISOTHERM LEVELS. EXPECT
ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS TO WANE IN COVERAGE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING. HIGHS TODAY UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FAR N/NE TO UPPER 60S
/NEAR 70F/ IN THE FAR SW PIEDMONT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC/
CAROLINA COAST IN THIS PERIOD...SUPPLANTED BY A MUCH WARMER
NORTHWEST (SAT) TO WESTERLY (SAT NIGHT) FLOW ALOFT. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR VERY LIGHT RAIN CANNOT BE ENTIRELY
RULED OUT IN THE N/NW PIEDMONT SAT AFT/EVE IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW-
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION FROM THE WEST AND (PERHAPS) WEAK DPVA ATTENDANT
SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN NW/WNW FLOW ALOFT. THOUGH
PROBABILITIES ARE LOW...WILL INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN
LATE SAT AFT/EVE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH SAT NIGHT. HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO
THE MID 70S VIA WARM ADVECTION/INSOLATION SAT AFTERNOON...AND LOWS
SAT NIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 60S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRIDAY...

SUNDAY...ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FINALLY DEPARTED UPPER
LOW...ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA/NEW
ENGLAND AND WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION ON LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY... WHEN IT WILL LIKELY STALL NEAR/OVER
THE AREA. THIS MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES. DESPITE THE "COLD FRONT" ON SUNDAY...LITTLE TO NO
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN AND WITH STRONGER DOWNSLOPE FLOW...HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM NEAR 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTH (CLOSER THE
FRONT AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS) TO MID 80S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS...ALONG WITH DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW...WILL
RESULT IN A SOME MODERATION...WITH HIGH TEMPS RISING SOLIDLY INTO
THE MID 80S AREAWIDE. MODELS ARE THEN SHOWING RATHER LARGE SPREAD
WITH REGARDS TO OUR NEXT SYSTEM MOVING EAST THROUGH MID/LATE WEEK.
OVERALL...CURRENT MODELS RUNS SHOW RAIN CHANCES INCREASING BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING (HENCE DRIER) ON
THURSDAY...WITH A STRONGER (HENCE WETTER) WAVE BY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AMONG ANY MODEL AND
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED LARGE MODEL SPREAD...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
LOW FOR THE MIDDLE/END OF THE WEEK. THEREFORE...WILL JUST SHOW AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM FRIDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: MVFR (PERHAPS OCCASIONAL IFR) CEILINGS AN
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT EASTERN TERMINALS
(RDU/FAY/RWI) THROUGH SUNSET THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CEILING SAT 4-6 KFT AGL WILL PREVAIL WITH A W/NW WIND AT 10-15 KT AND
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT/SAT IN AS A WARMER/DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH
EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD ADVERSE
AVIATION CONDITIONS HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...VINCENT



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