Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 281327
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
927 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Canadian high pressure will drift offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast
tonight. High pressure will extend into the region from the east on
Thursday. An increasingly moist southerly return flow will prevail
Friday through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today and Tonight/...
As of 930 AM EDT Wednesday...

1024 mb Canadian high pressure centered over WV/VA this morning will
shift offshore the DELMARVA late this afternoon/evening as an upper
level trough progresses further offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast.
High pressure will extend into the Carolinas from the east
overnight. With the above in mind, expect below normal temperatures
(albeit slightly warmer than yesterday) and dry/stable conditions to
persist through tonight, with highs 82-87F (coolest NW, warmest
S/SE) and lows ranging from the mid/upper 50s to lower 60s, coolest
in the typical rural/low-lying areas. -Vincent

&&

.SHORT TERM /Thursday and Thursday night/...
As of 405 AM EDT Wednesday...

Moisture and temperatures will begin to creep up on Thursday with
strengthening southerly return flow as the high moves further
offshore. Clouds will hold off til Thursday night, so another sunny
day is on tap with highs returning to a more seasonal 85-90 range.

An upper disturbance will lift east northeast across the Gulf states
Thursday night. We will remain dry and on the northern fringe of
increasing cloudiness as deeper moisture pools south of the area.
Mins will be in the mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday through Tuesday/...
As of 355 AM EDT Wednesday...

Return flow around expansive high pressure over the central N.
Atlantic will yield gradually increasing temperatures and humidity
levels, marked most abruptly by the passage of a warm front on Fri,
followed by a peak in the humidity this weekend and the heat Mon and
Tue. Despite mid level warmth associated with a sub-tropical ridge
initially over the swrn N. Atlantic, with resultant weak mid level
lapse rates, the aforementioned warming and moistening low levels
should prove sufficient for at least scattered diurnal convection
throughout central NC during the upcoming holiday weekend, after
which time, a sharpening Appalachian-lee trough and mixing out of
surface dewpoints (into the lower to middle 60s) to the west will
probably shift the focus for convection into the Coastal Plain.
Temperatures will trend from the middle 80s to around 90 degrees on
fri to lower to middle 90s by early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Wednesday through Monday/...
As of 930 AM EDT Wednesday...

24 Hour TAF Period: VFR (clear/mostly clear) skies and light/
variable winds will prevail through the TAF period in association
with Canadian high pressure extending into the region from the north
(today) and east (tonight).

Looking Ahead: VFR conditions and a light S/SE wind will prevail on
Thu in association with a surface ridge extending into the region
from the east. MVFR/IFR ceilings (INT/GSO/RDU) and fog (RWI/FAY) may
develop between midnight and sunrise Friday morning. Conditions
should improve to VFR by noon, though MVFR ceilings could persist
into the afternoon at the FAY terminal. Isolated to scattered
showers/storms are expected to develop late Friday afternoon,
potentially affecting all terminals, with the overall best chance at
the FAY/INT terminals. Diurnal convection and early morning
stratus/fog are expected to affect all terminals over the weekend
and possibly through early next week, as well. -Vincent

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Vincent
NEAR TERM...Vincent
SHORT TERM...mlm
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...Vincent


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