Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000
FXUS62 KRAH 290133
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
930 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE AFFECTING OUR WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM THURSDAY...

ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM REMAINED AS OF MID EVENING OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NC. INCREASING CINH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING WAS SLOWLY STABILIZING
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE
WITH TIME THIS EVENING... BUT COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR AN ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
SHOWER THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE... WARM AND HUMID FOR LATE
MAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...

DEEP RIDGING BECOMES MORE ASSERTIVE...RETROGRESSING ACROSS THE AREA
AND PRESSING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. WARM AIR
ALOFT WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION MORE STRONGLY AND IN THE ABSENCE OF
ANY FORCING...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE NORTHWEST
WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND POTENTIAL FOR ITS SUBSEQUENT
MIGRATION INTO THE TRIAD...AND IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHICH COULD SEE
INLAND PROGRESSION OF SEA BREEZE INDUCED CONVECTION. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ONCE AGAIN. CLEARING AND PERSISTENTLY MILD
TOMORROW NIGHT...MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...

TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO START THE PERIOD...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND A TROUGH OVER THE
MIDWEST...APPROACHING THE AREA. SIMILARLY AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE NE ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE RIDGING INTO THE
REGION AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY
SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL
GENERATED PRECIPITATION...GENERALLY EXPECT THE USUAL BEST CHANCES OF
CONVECTION DURING THE AFT/EVENING HOURS...WITH A LULL OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE DRIEST DAY...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST. SUNDAY SHOULD
BE DRY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA...BUT WET ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. IT APPEARS THE WETTEST DAYS ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL BE MON-
WED...AND WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE FRONT AS IT
SLIDES INTO/THROUGH THE AREA. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE FRONT...BUT FOR NOW TUESDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID
80S SOUTH. OTHERWISE...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S (COOLER
NORTH AND WARMER SOUTH). LOWS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID 60S THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM THURSDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: DIURNAL CONVECTION (PRIMARILY OUTSIDE OF CENTRAL
NC ALONG/WEST OF I-77) WILL WANE/DISSIPATE BY 00-03Z. ASIDE FROM A
POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR FOG OR CEILINGS DURING THE PRE-DAWN AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS (08-13Z)...AND A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD CONVECTION LATE
FRI AFT/EVE (20-00Z) AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD IN ASSOC/W AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

LOOKING AHEAD: STATUS QUO. EXPECT A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR EARLY
MORNING FOG/STRATUS AND LATE AFT/EVE CONVECTION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...PRIMARILY AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS. EXPECT CHANCES THEREOF
TO INCREASE AT ALL TERMINALS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE ALOFT
WEAKENS AND A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MLM
NEAR TERM...PWB/MLM
SHORT TERM...MLM
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...VINCENT


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