Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000
FXUS62 KRAH 230512
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
110 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 PM TUESDAY...

PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND MID LEVEL TROUGH HAS EXITED THE PIEDMONT.
BAND OF SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE TROUGH AS IT ENTERED THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT AT MID AFTERNOON DISSIPATED AS IT ENCOUNTERED A MUCH DRIER
MORE STABLE AIR MASS. SFC COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND SHOULD ENTER THE NW PIEDMONT PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. THIS
SFC FEATURE SHOULD PROGRESS SEWD QUICKLY...EXITING OUR SE COUNTIES
BY 2-3 AM. LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER DRIER COOLER AIR INTO CENTRAL NC
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20KTS OVERNIGHT
THOUGH THE STRONGER GUSTS AROUND 25KTS SHOULD OCCUR AFTER DAYBREAK.
THE NW FLOW COUPLED WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
TROUGH WILL AID TO DISSIPATE/DIMINISH CLOUD COVER. EXPECT CLEARING
TREND NOW OCCURRING IN THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT TO SPREAD
EWD OVERNIGHT.

FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE TO RAISE OVERNIGHT TEMPS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES. TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOWED TO COOL THIS EVENING AND THIS TREND
SUGGEST THAT MIN TEMPS MAY END UP BEING A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. MIN TEMPS UPPER 40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 207 PM TUESDAY...

...SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR POTENTIAL WEATHER HAZARDS FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

RATHER WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT. STRONG COOL AND DRY ADVECTION WILL BE DRIVEN
BY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THIS DRYING
PROCESS ALONG WITH THE WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
EXPECTED MAY LEAD TO A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY WEDNESDAY. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 MPH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH
BECOMES POSITIONED OVERHEAD LATE. A RATHER QUICK RETURN SW FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY (BUT WITH MUCH LESS VELOCITY 8-12 MPH
DURING THE AFTERNOON). THIS INFORMATION WILL BE COLLABORATED WITH
THE FORESTRY OFFICIALS.

OTHERWISE... TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW THE 30
YEAR NORMALS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SENSIBLE WEATHER... SUNNY
AND WINDY WEDNESDAY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S (SE). CLEAR
AND CHILLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD THURSDAY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S NE TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM TUESDAY...

TRAILING END OF A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY. MOISTURE ADVECTION IS MINIMAL WITH LOW
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GULF...BUT DIURNAL TIMING WILL BE
FAVORABLE...WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 80...TO PRODUCE RESPECTABLE
INSTABILITY (CAPES >1000J) WHICH WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION.
FRONT REACHES THE COAST EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONVECTION WILL DIE
OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR. MINS WILL
REMAIN MILD...IN THE MID 50S. SATURDAY WE WILL REMAIN MILD...NEAR 80
AGAIN...DUE TO WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A STRONGER...BUT
DRY...BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE PRESSED SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE BY SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SETTLES
SOUTH DOWN THE EAST COAST. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL STALL IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S.

UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EVOLUTION AND DETAILS OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHETHER WE LOCK IN THE COOL AIR AND GET
SOME OVERRUNNING OR WHETHER ITS SCOURED OUT AND WE WARM UP
SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY. REGARDLESS...THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES
OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WILL INTRODUCE IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY AND LET THE FORECAST EVOLVE. WILL MAINTAIN HIGHS TUESDAY IN
THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 110 AM WEDNESDAY...

A COLD FRONT NOW MOVING INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS FROM THE WNW WILL
SWEEP ESE THROUGH CENTRAL NC EARLY THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT... WHERE THE SURFACE HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAIN HIGH... THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING... PRIOR TO 08Z AT
INT/GSO... 09Z AT RDU/RWI... AND BEFORE 10Z AT FAY. AFTER THESE
TIMES... HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
OTHERWISE... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT... WITH FEW TO NO CLOUDS AND NO FURTHER RESTRICTIONS TO
VSBYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. OF SOME CONCERN
HOWEVER IS THE SHIFT OF WINDS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE... TO
NORTHWESTERLY AT ALL SITES (FROM NW TO SE) 07Z-10Z. SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 12-16 KTS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KTS FROM DAYBREAK THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS MAY CAUSE CROSSWIND PROBLEMS AT GSO/RDU/RWI/FAY
TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOON AFTER 22Z.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY THU MORNING: CONTINUED VFR THROUGH THU
EVENING WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL NC. A
WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW THU NIGHT... BRINGING WINDS
FROM THE SW AND A GOOD CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS... WHICH SHOULD
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR FRI MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORM FROM FRI MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
MOVE THROUGH BY FRI EVENING... WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW...
BRINGING LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND. -GIH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER /WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING/...
AS OF 207 PM TUESDAY...

INCREASED FIRE DANGER FOR WEDNESDAY ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 20 MPH WILL GUST TO 30 BEHIND A COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 25 PERCENT CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. FINE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL DRY OUT. IN COORDINATION
WITH WAKEFIELD AND BLACKSBURG - AND THE FORESTRY OFFICIALS... WE
WILL ISSUE AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR WEDNESDAY.

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM... MLM
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
FIRE WEATHER...BADGETT



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