Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000
FXUS62 KRAH 241635
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1235 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE MOUNTAINS
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL TRACK INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT...THEN MOVE OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SATURDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE
EAST COAST SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1215 PM FRIDAY...

AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT AND PROGRESS OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY. 12Z RAOB DATA INDICATES A PROFOUNDLY DRY/STABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...A RESIDUAL EFFECT OF STRONG
SUBSIDENCE THAT OCCURRED ON THURSDAY. WITH LARGE STATIC STABILITY...
DPVA ASSOC/W THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING THE REGION WILL BE
CONFINED ALMOST ENTIRELY TO THE UPPER LEVELS (H3-H5)...AS EVIDENCED
BY RAPID COOLING/MOISTENING IN THE H3-H5 LAYER FROM 00Z TO 12Z TODAY
ON THE GSO RAOB.

WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...EXPECT PARTLY TO OCCASIONALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ASSOCIATED WITH CIRRUS (CEILINGS 18-25 KFT) ATTENDANT THE
AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING INTO THE REGION. GIVEN THE ALTITUDE
AT WHICH THESE CEILINGS ARE PRESENT...IN ADDITION TO VARYING DEGREES
OF OPACITY...ANTICIPATE LITTLE OVERALL IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS SIMILAR THOUGH SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND LOWS SIMILAR
TO THIS MORNING...BOTH NEAR `AVERAGE` FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT
WILL EXIT OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY MORNING. MODEST
SUBSIDENCE AND H5 HEIGHT RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL
REINFORCE THE DRY/STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...
MAINTAINING CLEAR SKIES WITH ABSOLUTELY NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
STRENGTHENING WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN WEAK WARM
ADVECTION DURING THE DAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON SAT A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...AROUND 72-75F. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT AS AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL
LOW DIGS RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA INTO NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z SUN.
THE MSLP GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS
SAT NIGHT...MAINTAINING A WESTERLY BREEZE AT 5-10 KT. AS A RESULT...
FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL NOT BE ACHIEVED...AND LOWS WILL MOST
LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW/MID 50S IN THE ABSENCE OF A 1-3 HR
PERIOD OF CALM WINDS. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...

MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

AN UPPER RIDGE INITIALLY OVER THE MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND AND THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MIGRATE EAST OVER THE
ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY AND OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
DEAMPLIFY SOMEWHAT...WITH PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY FLOW TO MAINTAIN
OUR MILD AIRMASS. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF A DRY FRONT
WILL BARELY GRAZE THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY...AND WILL BE OFFSET BY
INCREASINGLY WESTERLY FLOW AND STRONG INSOLATION. HIGHS WILL REACH
THE LOWER 70S NORTHEAST SUNDAY...WITH MOST OF THE AREA REACHING MID
70S BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH IS 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BOOST HIGHS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S...WITH A CORRESPONDING BUMP IN
MORNING MINS INTO THE LOW 50S.

OUR NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY APPROACHING THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE DELAYED AS IT ALIGNS PARALLEL TO
WESTERLY FLOW AND ACTUAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE IN THE FRIDAY TIME
FRAME. MOISTURE ADVECTION THURSDAY WILL BE NEARLY NEGLIGIBLE...AND
WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT. ENHANCED CLOUDINESS
AND POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS MAY INHIBIT WARMUP A BIT...NEAR 70 NORTH
TO MID 70S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES (ASIDE FROM
CIRRUS WITH CEILINGS 18-25 KFT) WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVES OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST COAST ON SATURDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME
WSW AT 5-8 KT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK IN ASSOC/W A PERSISTENTLY BENIGN SYNOPTIC PATTERN. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...VINCENT



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