Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
062 FXUS65 KREV 042038 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 138 PM PDT Tue Jun 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Mild temperatures today will steadily warm to well above average for the remainder of the forecast period. A moderate heat risk is expected for western Nevada communities Wednesday into the weekend. Low chances of showers and storms will exist each afternoon Wednesday through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... You can`t ask for much more pleasant weather than what`s underway across the region with temperatures climbing into the 70s and 80s beneath sunny skies. The culprit responsible is a strengthening upper ridge, which is gradually nudging into the western states per latest moisture-channel imagery. Enjoy the mild temperatures today because some changes are on the way... Our first heat episode of the year begins in earnest on Wednesday as further amplification of the upper ridge will foster steady warming through Thursday before temperatures plateau Friday into the weekend. Daytime highs will soar into the mid to upper 80s for Sierra communities and mid-upper 90s for lower western Nevada valleys each afternoon through Sunday. Our more populated locales in western Nevada such as Reno and Fallen have a 20-40% and 30-50% chance, respectively, of reaching the century mark on Thursday and Friday per latest blended guidance. It is worth noting that this same guidance has been running a bit too warm in regard to high temperatures, so the lower end of these probability ranges are likely more representative. Regardless, daytime temperatures will be 10-20 degrees above early June averages, which compounded by minimal relief from the heat during the overnight hours will pose a moderate heat risk for western Nevada communities Wednesday through Saturday. Be sure to drink plenty of water, limit time out in the sun and strenuous outdoor activities, and frequently seek air conditioned buildings! Intense surface heating couple with ample moisture aloft will likely prove sufficient for daily chances of afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms starting Wednesday. Blended guidance indicates that chances will remain quite low, only reaching 10-20% each day. Favored areas include the Sierra south of the Tahoe Basin and NE California into N Washoe County with lesser chances elsewhere. Meanwhile, elevated to perhaps locally critical fire weather conditions may exist across portions of western Nevada Friday and Saturday afternoon as increased west breezes overlap with daytime humidities in the teens. -Salas && .AVIATION... Widespread VFR conditions will largely prevail this week with a couple notable weather concerns. The first and primary concern will be the potential for density altitude issues as temperatures soar into the 80s and 90s each afternoon beginning Wednesday and lasting through the weekend. The second concern will be low chances (10-20%) of showers and isolated thunderstorms during the same timeframe, particularly favoring the eastern Sierra south of the Tahoe Basin and areas near the Oregon border. -Salas && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$