Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
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622 FXUS65 KRIW 040346 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 946 PM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain continues today. Chances decrease after sunset, lingering across northwestern and northern Wyoming through about sunrise Tuesday. - Warm and dry Tuesday through the end of the work week. Warmest temperatures so far this year, with many locations in the upper 80s Thursday and Friday. A few places may hit 90. - Elevated fire weather Tuesday and Wednesday as a result of dry and windy weather. - Minor flooding concerns through this week as a result of rain today and warm temperatures the rest of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1236 PM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024 An upper level low over Saskatchewan continues to bring rain over western Wyoming as the associated trough swings through the state today. Highest rainfall totals will be over the mountains, where 0.25" to 0.75" additional liquid is possible through tonight. The highest peaks may see around an inch. Rain chances spread east of the Continental Divide this afternoon. Latest high-resolution models have 15% to 35% chances. These showers and thunderstorms will occur, but look to be limited in coverage. Rain begins to decrease after sunset, lasting longest over northwestern and northern Wyoming through about sunrise Tuesday. There are minor flooding concerns, as rain falls on snowy mountains. The biggest areas of concern are the western mountains and northern Bighorns. River rises are expected through this week due to today`s rain and warmer temperatures. We will continue to monitor this situation through the week. Today also brings gusty winds. The strongest winds will be across the Wind Corridor, from eastern Lincoln County, eastward through southern Sublette County, and through Sweetwater and Natrona Counties. Gusts to around 45 mph are possible. Locations like Red Canyon and Outer Drive in Casper could see the strongest gusts, to around 60 mph possible. Also of note is the central mountains, where gusts near 50 mph are possible through tomorrow as jet energy moves across the state. Drier weather Tuesday and Wednesday as a ridge begins to build in. Combined with gusty winds of 30 to 35 mph, elevated fire weather conditions may be in place. Thursday looks drier, but winds are not as strong. As the ridge builds for the latter half of the week, temperatures climb. Thursday and Friday currently look to be the warmest days, with highs in the 80s for much of the area. East of the Divide, some locations may see their first 90s of the year. These temperatures are 10 to 15 degrees above average. Rain chances are very limited during this time. No precipitation is expected Wednesday or Thursday. A little Pacific moisture may move into the area Friday and Saturday, sparking afternoon convection, but chances right now look to be 25% or less. Temperatures stay warm through the weekend, with highs in the 80s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 945 PM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Any showers across the forecast area are expected to end by 09Z. A cold front will continue its push southward over areas east of the Divide to start the TAF period, but is only expected to impact KWRL and KCPR through 12Z, quickly washing out. Otherwise, gusty winds up to 25 kt will continue to impact several terminals. Higher gusts close to 35 kt will continue at KCPR to start the forecast, but will decrease through 12Z, before the cold front reaches the terminal. Winds will then increase across the forecast area through 18Z, with gusts of 25 to 35 kt occurring through the afternoon. These winds will begin to decrease around 02Z/03Z. Apart for isolated showers over far northwestern portions from 17Z to 20Z, conditions will be dry. Models are showing some indications of mountain wave activity along the east slopes of the Wind River and Absaroka Mountains through 18Z. This pattern could create increased winds above the foothills, but at elevations of 3-8K feet above the ground. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wittmann AVIATION...LaVoie