Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
074 FXUS65 KRIW 032207 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 407 PM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain continues today. Chances decrease after sunset, lingering across northwestern and northern Wyoming through about sunrise Tuesday. - Warm and dry Tuesday through the end of the work week. Warmest temperatures so far this year, with many locations in the upper 80s Thursday and Friday. A few places may hit 90. - Elevated fire weather Tuesday and Wednesday as a result of dry and windy weather. - Minor flooding concerns through this week as a result of rain today and warm temperatures the rest of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1236 PM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024 An upper level low over Saskatchewan continues to bring rain over western Wyoming as the associated trough swings through the state today. Highest rainfall totals will be over the mountains, where 0.25" to 0.75" additional liquid is possible through tonight. The highest peaks may see around an inch. Rain chances spread east of the Continental Divide this afternoon. Latest high-resolution models have 15% to 35% chances. These showers and thunderstorms will occur, but look to be limited in coverage. Rain begins to decrease after sunset, lasting longest over northwestern and northern Wyoming through about sunrise Tuesday. There are minor flooding concerns, as rain falls on snowy mountains. The biggest areas of concern are the western mountains and northern Bighorns. River rises are expected through this week due to today`s rain and warmer temperatures. We will continue to monitor this situation through the week. Today also brings gusty winds. The strongest winds will be across the Wind Corridor, from eastern Lincoln County, eastward through southern Sublette County, and through Sweetwater and Natrona Counties. Gusts to around 45 mph are possible. Locations like Red Canyon and Outer Drive in Casper could see the strongest gusts, to around 60 mph possible. Also of note is the central mountains, where gusts near 50 mph are possible through tomorrow as jet energy moves across the state. Drier weather Tuesday and Wednesday as a ridge begins to build in. Combined with gusty winds of 30 to 35 mph, elevated fire weather conditions may be in place. Thursday looks drier, but winds are not as strong. As the ridge builds for the latter half of the week, temperatures climb. Thursday and Friday currently look to be the warmest days, with highs in the 80s for much of the area. East of the Divide, some locations may see their first 90s of the year. These temperatures are 10 to 15 degrees above average. Rain chances are very limited during this time. No precipitation is expected Wednesday or Thursday. A little Pacific moisture may move into the area Friday and Saturday, sparking afternoon convection, but chances right now look to be 25% or less. Temperatures stay warm through the weekend, with highs in the 80s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 405 PM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024 An energetic weather system is moving from Idaho through Wyoming and Montana this evening and overnight, continuing to bring moisture from the WSW into western Wyoming. Light rain continues across much of western Wyoming early this evening, with brief periods of moderate rain possible through 02Z. General VFR conditions may become MVFR at KJAC/KBPI/KPNA through 03Z due to the precipitation and lowered ceilings and visibilities. KCOD/KLND/KRKS also have a chance of showers at varied periods this evening, with KCOD seeing the slight chance of showers around 06Z. The mountains across western Wyoming will be obscured through 12Z as the trough moves eastward into the Northern Plains. Windy conditions of 15-20 kts with gusts 25-35 kts will continue at all TAF sites through 02Z-03Z. They will decrease after sunset, but some sites will see breezy and gusty winds through the night. Behind the trough passage Tuesday morning, drier northwest flow moves over the forecast area. WNW surface winds will again increase and be gusty from 15Z into the afternoon, as isolated showers are only expected over far northwestern WY. Models are showing some indications of mountain wave activity along the east slopes of the Wind River and Absaroka Mountains from the start of the TAF period 18Z. This pattern could create increased winds above the foothills, but at elevations of 3-8K feet above the ground. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wittmann AVIATION...McDonald/LaVoie