Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
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360 FXUS65 KRIW 060342 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 942 PM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Wyoming winds continue through sunset today before decreasing. - Widespread temperatures in the 80s through the next week. Much warmer temperatures will continue the seasonal mountain snowmelt, with elevated stream and rivers into next week. - A few showers possible Friday through the weekend, mainly targeting the higher elevations. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 120 PM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Starting to transition more into a summertime pattern as stronger H5 ridging builds across the western US. This will continue to push the main storm track farther and farther north away from the region. The ridging has already started the warmer temperatures across the state, with today the beginning of a streak of days reaching into the 80s. As the ridge increases through this weekend, expect warmer temperatures each afternoon. While any record highs will be tough to reach (most areas already have records in the low 90s), temps will still be 5 to 10 degrees above normal into early next week. This period of very warm temperatures will bring a considerable meltdown of what`s left of the mountain snowpack. This will bring stream and river levels higher through the next week, with some lowland flooding possible in the vicinity of local rivers. A weak front/trough will sweep by to the north and east on Friday. While most of the energy will be deflected by the ridge, there may be enough cooling aloft to bring a bit more instability. This may lead to some shower activity Friday and Saturday, mainly focused on the higher elevations. Another wave looks to sweep northeast along the western edge of the ridge on Sunday, possibly bringing another round of showers to western mountains. Models are having trouble resolving the location and strength of this wave, so confidence is modest at this time. This introduces increasing uncertainty to the forecast into early next week, so maintaining the warmer temperatures and a few afternoon mountain showers remains the ongoing forecast. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 917 PM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024 VFR conditions expected at all TAF sites for the entirety of the period. Light winds and clear skies mainly to start the period. Winds pick up some at BPI, RKS, and PNA after 20Z with mixing to the surface during peak heating with an approaching weak system to the northwest. Winds will diminish with radiational cooling after around 02Z with increasing upper level clouds through the afternoon and evening. Light winds less than 10kts for sites east of the Divide. Dry conditions expected with no other weatherelements forecasted. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Straub AVIATION...Lowe