Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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022 FXUS64 KSJT 302359 AAA AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service San Angelo TX 659 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 156 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 The latest severe weather/mesoanalysis analysis shows a dryline well to our west over extreme SE New Mexico into the Trans Pecos and an outflow boundary extended from south of the I-20 corridor on west into the Permian Basin. Scattered thunderstorms are located along this boundary as it continues to move slowly south. The most unstable air is located south of the outflow boundary with SBCAPES of 3000 to 4000 J/kg across the southern half of the area. Also, effective shear values are 35 to 45 knots. Thunderstorms will continue along the outflow boundary this afternoon and may become severe in the next few hours across the northern half of the area. Other storms, probably supercells will develop along the dryline to our west over the southern Permian Basin and Trans Pecos and move east into the western part our area and merge with the outflow boundary storms by early this evening and move east- southeast across much of the area to possibly the I-10 corridor late this evening. Some storms will be severe with the main hazards being very large hail, significant damaging winds(possibly 80 mph) and a few tornadoes, especially near any boundaries. The best penitential for more organized severe weather will be in the Enhanced risk area or north of an Sterling City to San Angelo to Brady line, but this area may shift a little south. The convection will decrease in intensity after midnight with maybe still a few isolated marginal severe storms. For Friday, another day of scattered thunderstorms with a few severe storms possible due to strong instability and good deep layer shear. Will have to see how tonight`s convection plays out and where the outflow boundaries setup for tomorrow and also the dryline to our west. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Thursday) Issued at 156 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 By Friday evening, most model data generally agrees that our best chances for convection will occur earlier in the day on Friday. With that in mind, will keep PoPs limited to 30% or less for Friday evening and overnight. Another shortwave is expected to move through the area during the Saturday afternoon and evening timeframe, which will continue the shower and thunderstorm chances going into Saturday afternoon/evening. Additional shortwave energy, although somewhat weaker is expected to move through on Sunday as well. The best chances for precipitation associated with this feature will be north of Interstate 10. Although it`s not possible to reliably predict whether or not these storms will be severe more than a couple days out, it`s certainly possible that additional severe weather could occur either Saturday or Sunday. By early next week, upper level ridging is expected to develop over our area, which is expected to stifle precipitation chances, as well as result in temperatures warming back up into the upper 90s to around 100 degrees. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 654 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 The main concerns are with placement and timing of convection, and with low cloud development late tonight into midday Friday. Despite the favorable environment for severe storms, with considerable high cloud cover overspreading the area early this evening from West Texas storms, our area has a lack of development early this evening. Even the hi-res models are struggling with this scenario. As a result, needed to pull the mention of TSRA from our TAF sites this evening. Will monitor radar trends and amend TAFs as needed going into tonight. With thunderstorm development over the Texas Panhandle, a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) appears to be taking shape, and this could become our main focus for late tonight through Friday morning. In addition, if storms southwest of Lubbock merge into a cluster, could move southeast toward the western Big Country and northwestern Concho Valley tonight (ahead of the storm complex currently over the Texas Panhandle). Outside of the convective activity, should have some low cloud development and expansion late tonight into mid- morning Friday with MVFR ceilings. South to southeast winds are expected ahead of any thunderstorm clusters or MCS, and strong, gusty northwest or north winds would likely accompany storm clusters or MCS on the leading edge. Have a considerable amount of uncertainty with placement/timing of thunderstorms over the next 12-18 hours, and anticipate updates with the TAFs as this unfolding convective situation becomes more clear. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 89 65 81 67 / 30 80 40 20 San Angelo 94 68 88 69 / 20 50 30 10 Junction 95 71 92 72 / 20 40 30 20 Brownwood 88 65 81 68 / 30 80 50 20 Sweetwater 91 65 83 68 / 30 70 40 20 Ozona 91 70 92 69 / 20 20 10 10 Brady 89 67 81 69 / 20 70 40 20 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....20 AVIATION...19