898
FXUS65 KSLC 051622 CCA
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
350 AM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...An early season heat wave will impact the area through
the work week, with record challenging temperatures anticipated
Thursday into Friday. As the ridge flattens for the weekend, the
warming trend will curb and some moisture will move into the area,
increasing the threat of convection.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z Friday)...A broad ridge is centered over
the Great Basin this morning, with Utah and southwest Wyoming
under a dry northwest flow out ahead of it, resulting in clear
skies. Temperatures will warm noticeably compared to yesterday,
with maxes running 5-10F above yesterday`s values, averaging 10F
above seasonal normals.

The ridge axis will continue east today and tonight, moving
overhead for Thursday. As a result, the area will see another jump
in temperatures, with highs averaging 15F above normal for this
time of year. The heat will reach dangerous levels for many of the
valleys of southern Utah, where Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat
Advisories will take effect beginning 11 am Thursday.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z Friday)...As clouds increase later
Thursday into Friday, cooling Friday morning will be limited. Low
temperatures will be the upper 60s to around 70F for the urban
corridor of northern Utah and in the mid 70s around Lake Powell and
lower Washington County. Shortwave energy will track into southwest
Wyoming and Utah as a ridge tracks slightly to the east, which will
bring enhanced clouds into Friday. As conditions warm during the
day, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely.
With weak forcing, minimal wind shear, and low moisture, showers and
thunderstorms will primarily be around terrain. Gusty, erratic
outflow winds would be likely. With high pressure positioned to the
southeast, most showers and thunderstorms will likely be around the
northern mountains. Temperatures aloft will be nearly the same as
Thursday, and forecast highs are similar. Mid to upper 90s are
likely for most valleys, with 100s around Lake Powell and lower
Washington County.

The ridge will track further east into the weekend, but ensembles
are in good agreement on another building in quickly. Temperatures
Saturday will be slightly cooler than Friday, but stay more than 10F
warmer than normal. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
for portions of northern Utah are likely. Another ridge will track
into Utah for the end of the weekend. There will likely be fewer
showers and thunderstorms, with shortwave energy further north.

There is uncertainty early in the week as to if ridging will
dominate or if more showers and thunderstorms would be expected.
Most ensemble members keep ridging with occasional shortwaves and
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some members bring
remnants of a closed low tracking northward from off the Baja coast
with better moisture advection into Utah. While there is uncertainty
on details, warmer than normal temperatures will likely last through
at least early in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions today/tonight. Light southeast
winds will transition to northeast around 17Z with clear or mostly
clear conditions through the day.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions
today/tonight. Clear or mostly clear conditions with light winds
will last through the day throughout Utah. Similar, but more windy
conditions are likely in southwest Wyoming, with wind gusts around
25 knots from 17-03Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...High pressure will build over Utah through Thursday,
bringing stable and very dry conditions with light winds.
Temperatures across the area will steadily warm through Friday,
with highs expected to be up to 20F above normal for this time of
year by the end of the work week. Because of this, some daily
temperature records will be challenged. The ridge axis will move
east of the area Friday as the ridge weakens. This will curb the
warming trend and allow some moisture to return to the area. The
moisture will bring a threat of high-based showers and
thunderstorms producing little to no rainfall, thus bringing a
threat of dry lightning and gusty and erratic winds.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Thursday to midnight MDT Friday night
     for UTZ121-128>130.

     Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM Thursday to midnight MDT
     Friday night for UTZ123-124-131.

WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...Traphagan
LONG TERM/AVIATION...Wilson

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity