372
FXUS62 KTAE 200614
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
214 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 138 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Light northeasterly winds will dominate today as an upper level
trough moves east of the area and surface high pressure builds
across the Mid-Atlantic states. There may be just enough low level
convergence along the sea breeze this afternoon across the coastal
big bend areas for an isolated shower or thunderstorm, but nothing
significant is expected and most areas will stay dry. Highs will
generally be in the 80s with overnight lows in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 138 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Upper level ridge axis builds into the forecast area Tuesday into
Wednesday while at the surface, an axis high pressure axis slowly
shifts east. Dry mid-level air and easterly flow in the lower
levels will lead to mostly sunny skies and warm conditions through
the period. High temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than
Monday and the warm up continues into Wednesday and beyond with
widespread low 90s expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 138 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Ridge axis slowly translates east towards the weekend period as
southwesterly and more progressive flow aloft develops. A few
passing disturbances to our north will move through the westerly
flow bringing perhaps a return to low rain chances by the end of
the week and weekend as surface flow becomes southerly and better
low-level moisture returns.

In the absence of any significant systems and mostly dry
conditions, we`ll see the warm up continue with temperatures
nearing the mid 90s for some locations by end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 134 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

An area of low ceilings moving in from the northeast could affect
VLD and ABY with a few hours of MVFR ceilings this morning.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail across the region
with northeast winds mainly under 10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 138 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Northeast winds become easterly through Tuesday as high pressure
moves by and to the north of area waters. Winds will turn to the
southeast and then south through the week with southwesterly winds
expected by Friday. Speeds wont reach much more than 10 knots so
expect low seas of 2 to 3 feet or less through the week. Highest
wind speeds generally will be in the overnight period as nocturnal
surges from the Atlantic Seabreeze moves through. No rain
expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 138 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Winds will remain light with relative humidity values remaining
above critical levels for the next few days. Given recent rainfall,
there are no major fire weather concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 138 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Heavy rainfall from Friday and the weekend will lead to ongoing
or developing minor flooding at several rivers over the next few
days as rainfall works its way into the system. Withlacoochee
River in Georgia and northern Florida is currently climbing and
will likely crest sometime this week. Rises in the lower
Withlacoochee will likely rise through much of the upcoming week.
Rises into solid action stage in the middle and lower Suwanee
Rivers are likely later this week and next weekend.

Further west across the Ochlockonee basin, the river will
generally hold steady or rise slowly through the week. The
Apalachicola at Blountstown will approach minor flood stage today.
Across the Panhandle in the Choctawhatchee Basin, rivers rises to
near flood are likely through the week.

Aside from increasing rivers from recent heavy rainfall, no new
hydrological concerns are anticipated to develop with the area
likely moving into a drier pattern for the next 5 to 7 days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   86  65  88  67 /  10   0   0   0
Panama City   86  69  86  69 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        84  64  85  64 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        84  64  85  64 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      84  63  87  64 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    86  63  88  65 /  20   0  20   0
Apalachicola  82  71  82  71 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ early this
     morning for FLZ108-112-114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM....Dobbs
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Dobbs
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs