-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
064
FXUS61 KOKX 160306
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1106 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds from the northwest tonight. The high will
move across Sunday morning, then remain in place off the
Northeast coast through Wednesday. The high shifts south to off
the Mid Atlantic coast into next weekend as disturbances pass
to the north Friday and Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Made slight adjustments to the forecast database with regards to
temperatures, dewpoints, and cloud coverage to better match with
observed trends. The forecast remains on track.

As an upper level trough to the east continues to pull away,
and the surface trough has dissipated with the cu field
dissipating, with a clear to near clear sky tonight. This plus
some CAA as high pressure builds in from the NW, plus
diminishing winds will lead to good radiational cooling, and
mostly below normal low temps, ranging from the upper 40s in the
interior valleys/Long Island Pine Barrens, to the 50s most
elsewhere, to the lower 60s invof NYC.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Heights will continue to rise aloft. High pressure at the
surface will move overhead by late Sunday morning, and then pass
offshore during Sunday afternoon and evening, where it should
become nearly stationary and remain in control through the
week.

The short term period will be dry and mostly sunny. Some energy
rounding the upper level ridge will pass overhead Sunday
afternoon/evening, but will likely just result in some high clouds.

Temperatures Sunday will be just a few degrees cooler than
Saturday, with highs in the 70s and dewpoints in the 40s. As
the high shifts offshore later on Sunday a return flow sets up
and moisture increases. Dewpoints quickly return to the upper
50s inland and lower/mid 60s closer to the coast on Monday, with
high temps in the mid/upper 80s from NYC west, 80-85 for NYC and
most of southern CT, and 75-80 for most of Long Island and SE
CT. This should be the last day before a heat wave sets up for
the rest of the week.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
**Key Points**

* A long duration heat wave is expected Tuesday through next
  Saturday.

* The combination of the heat and humidity will produce heat index
  values of 95 to around 102 during this time.

* Not much relief at night as overnight lows will be in the mid 60s
  to the lower and mid 70s, with dew points remaining in the lower
  to mid 60s.

A strong deep layered ridge will be positioned over the east coast
by Monday night and remain in place through the upcoming weekend.
The ridge will flatten with the upper flow becoming more zonal
across the region Thursday through Saturday.
Meanwhile, surface high pressure will initially be anchored off the
northeast coast, and then shift to the south and be positions off
the mid Atlantic coast Wednesday through Saturday.
This is in response to a northern stream upper trough and surface
low tracking across southern Canada into northern New England.

Low level flow on the west side of the high pressure will allow
for a southerly or southwesterly flow through much of the
extended period. This will allow for the advection of both low
level moisture and warm air. At this time the peak of the heat,
and the highest heat indices, are likely to occur Thursday and
Friday. With the anomalous strength of the ridge there is a
chance that temperatures across the interior may even peak at
near 100 degrees. Also, there will not be much relief at night
as overnight lows drop into the mid 60s and lower to mid 70s,
especially Thursday night and Friday night. No record high
temperatures are expected during the heat wave, however, there
is a chance that a few climate locations will set record high
minimum temperatures Thursday, June 20th. Also, humidity levels
will remain elevated with dew points mostly in the lower to mid
60s. However, with the upper flow becoming more zonal there will
be increased chances for waves of energy to move across the
region and produce chances for increased clouds and
afternoon/evening thunderstorms Friday and Saturday. Until then
with the strong ridge these disturbances will be tracking west
and north of the area.

With the long duration of the heat and humidity advisories will
likely be issued for this event. Also, with the intense heat
and high humidity it is important to take precautions to protect
one`s health, particularly those without effective cooling
and/or adequate hydration. The onset of the heat will be
occurring as the transition from spring to summer occurs, with
the solstice Thursday, June 20th at 446 PM EDT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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High pressure builds across the area overnight into early
Sunday. The high pressure area then moves offshore Sunday
afternoon into Sunday night.

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.

Wind speeds have decreased to less than 10 kt. Some variability
in wind direction is expected going into overnight with wind
speeds further lowering.

Winds become more NE-E overnight going into early Sunday,
followed by winds becoming more SE in the afternoon. Wind speeds
will be generally near 8-10 kt.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

KJFK has more southerly winds tonight but is expected to become
more variable in direction and when this exactly occurs may be
1-3 hours off from TAF.

KLGA and KEWR wind direction may be more variable before 12-14Z
Sunday.

KTEB may have more variable wind direction 12-16Z Sunday.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday night through Monday morning...Mainly VFR. A chance for
some MVFR to IFR stratus late Sunday night into early Monday
morning.

Monday afternoon through Thursday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
With high pressure remaining in control, sub SCA conditions are
expected on all waters thru Thu night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the end of next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Latest beach reports indicated no more than a moderate rip
current risk at the ocean beaches today. The moderate risk
continues both Sunday and Monday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG/MET
NEAR TERM...BG/MET
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...BG/MET
HYDROLOGY...BG/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...