324
FXAK69 PAFG 251244
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
444 AM AKDT Sat May 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Numerous rain showers will continue over the Interior
today becoming more isolated to scattered this afternoon.
A chance of thunderstorms also possible Northway to Eagle and across
the Southern Interior this afternoon. Weak Easterly waves will continue
to move over the southern Interior this weekend with continued
wetting rain chances for the Eastern Interior and Eastern Alaska Range.
Over the Brooks Range, snow and blowing snow expected with 4 to 6 inches
possible over the Eastern Brooks Range through Sunday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
An Upper low over Bristol Bay will drop south and into the Gulf of
AK on Saturday. An Arctic low will push across the Brooks Range
over the weekend and move near the Seward Penn on Sunday. This
low will will continue to retrograde over the Bering Strait on
Monday and then over eastern Russia on Tuesday. Moisture advection
will continue to move over the Eastern Interior through the weekend.
Weak high pressure will build over the Interior Monday through
Wednesday.


Central and Eastern Interior...
An area of numerous showers is moving across the Middle Tanana
Valley this morning. Showers will push to the south on Saturday.
Showers will become more Isolated Saturday afternoon and
Sunday. Isolated PM thunderstorms are expected today
between Eagle and Northway, and from Northway to Denali on Sat.

Highs in the 50s today then gradually warming near
60 on Sunday and back into the mid 60s by Monday and Tuesday.
Weak Easterly waves will continue to move over the southern Interior
this weekend with continued wetting rain chances for
the Eastern Interior and Eastern Alaska Range.

West Coast and Western Interior...
The Western Interior and West Coast is will remain wet and cool
through the weekend. Showers will persist over the southern west
coast today and inland to Mcgrath. A stronger short wave will move
from the High Arctic to near Utqiagvik Sat night and then drop south
over NW AK on Sun and over the Seward Penn on Monday. This will bring
much cooler temps and some showers to the West Coast Sun into Mon.
Strong northerly winds will develop in the Bering
Strait and continue into Saturday with gale force winds over the water.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
A weather system will bring snow to the Brooks Range Passes
Thursday night into Saturday. Snow showers are expected to develop
over the Eastern North Slope and continue into Sunday morning.
Between 4 and 6 inches of snow is expected, with the heaviest snow
falling between Friday night and Saturday night. Northerly winds
will increase to 15 to 30 mph over Brooks Range Passes producing
low visibility in snow and blowing snow and drifting snow. This
could make travel over Atigun Pass difficult through Sunday
morning.


Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Cool and wet conditions will become cool and drier over
the weekend.

Scattered to numerous showers along the thermal trough will taper
off to isolated to scattered showers by Sat. Isolated PM thunderstorms
are expected today between Eagle and Northway,
and from Northway to Denali on Sat.

An upper level disturbance will will approach the SE Interior
from the east  on Sun and Mon. This will bring more wetting
rain to the SE Interior Sun into Mon.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Ice Jam Flooding continues on the Yukon Delta at Emmonak, Alakanuk
and Nunam Iqua. Minor flooding similar to that of 2023 has been
reported with some roads and low lying areas flooded.

A flood warning was issued for Fort Yukon and remains in affect
until next Wed. Water has poured into low lying areas east of Fort
Yukon and was reported to be rising rapidly today with water 6
inches to 1 ft below impacting low areas of the runway. It is
expected that flooding will be similar to 2023, with water flowing
into low section of Fort Yukon later today or Sat, cresting on Sun
or Mon, then falling very slowly next week.

A flood watch remains for the Yukon Delta near Kotlik.A jam
remains in place with high water. Not flooding has been reported
but if the ice shifts is could push water into town.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Flood Watch for AKZ825.
     Flood Warning for AKZ825 and AKZ833.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802-804-852.
     Gale Warning for PKZ806-854.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-850.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851-853.
     Gale Warning for PKZ856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ857.
&&

$$