333
AXNT20 KNHC 291711
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed May 29 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1655 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has been introduced in the eastern Atlantic along
17W, south of 15N based on satellite imagery and wave diagnostic
guidance. The wave is moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is observed from 05N to 12N and east of 23W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic along 34W, south of
11N, moving westward at 15-20 knots. A few showers are noted near
the wave axis.

Another tropical wave is in the central Atlantic along 58W, south
of 13N, moving westward at 15-20 knots. Scattered moderate
convection is present from 07N to 12N and between 54W and 62W.

A tropical wave in the western Caribbean along 82W, south of 21N,
moving westward at 10-15 knots. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is occurring in the SW Caribbean, south of 13W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea near 10N14W and continues southwestward to 08N19W. The ITCZ
extends from 08N19W to 04N33W and then from 04N35W to 05N53W.
Please see the Tropical Waves section for information on the
convection near the monsoon trough and ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A few showers are noted on satellite imagery in the western Gulf
of Mexico, mainly off Veracruz and Tamaulipas. The strong
convection previously in the NW Gulf has mostly dissipated. The
remainder of the Gulf is under the influence of a subtropical
ridge positioned a few hundred miles SE of Newfoundland. The weak
pressure gradient sustains moderate to locally fresh SE winds
between 90W and 95W. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft. Light to
gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

Hazy conditions due to agricultural fires in Mexico and Central
America persist across most of the western Gulf, including the
Bay of Campeche. Observation sites along the Bay of Campeche and
western Gulf continue to report visibilities at 3 nm of less.

For the forecast, weak surface ridging will continue to dominate
across the Gulf through Sun. As a result, winds will pulse
moderate to fresh during the evenings through the weekend. A weak
cold front moving across the far NE Gulf will continue to support
gentle W to NW winds over that region this morning. Otherwise,
fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse near the N and W portions
of the Yucatan peninsula during the late afternoons and at night
through the weekend. Haze west of 89W due to agricultural fires
over Central America and Mexico will continue for at least the
next couple of days, impacting visibility at times.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Tropical Waves section for details on the tropical
wave in the western Caribbean.

An upper level trough extending into the NW Caribbean Sea continues
to push tropical moisture northward, and along with the tropical
wave passage, results in scattered showers over portions of the NW
and central Caribbean, affecting eastern Cuba, Jamaica and
Hispaniola. The environment will remain conducive for showers and
isolated thunderstorms to affect eastern Cuba, Jamaica and
Hispaniola during the next several days, especially in the evening
and night hours. Locally heavy rain and gusty winds are possible,
especially in mountainous areas, leading to flash flooding.
Please refer to your local weather office for more specific
information.

The pressure gradient between a 1029 mb high pressure system SE of
Newfoundland and lower pressures in the deep tropics support
fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the south-central
Caribbean. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite
pass. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly
breezes and seas of 3-6 ft are occurring in the north-central and
eastern Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to light and slight
seas are found elsewhere. Hazy conditions continue to affect the
Gulf of Honduras due to agricultural fires in Central America.
Visibilities may decrease below 3 nm at times, especially along
the northern coast of Honduras and the Bay Islands.

For the forecast, a moderate pressure gradient between high
pressure and associated ridging north of the area and low pressure
along near Colombia will force fresh to locally strong trades
over the S central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras through today.
Winds will become moderate to fresh from Thu through the weekend.
A tropical wave currently over the western Caribbean is causing
scattered showers and thunderstorms over the SW Caribbean. The
wave is forecast to move across Central America into the E Pacific
waters tonight into Thu. Smoke from agricultural fires over
Central America is causing reduced visibilities over the Gulf of
Honduras.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Tropical Waves section for details on the three
tropical waves in the central and eastern Atlantic.

A late-season cold front has emerged off the southeast coast of
the United States, extending from 31N78W to Daytona Beach,
Florida, based on the 1500 UTC surface map. Divergence aloft is
helping to induce a few showers ahead of the boundary, especially
north of 26N and west of 70W. Farther east, a cold front enters
the tropical Atlantic near 31N41W and continues southwestward to
30N48W, where it becomes a surface trough, stretching
southwestward to near Puerto Rico. The trough is producing
scattered showers from 20N to 26N and between 50W and 65W.
Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-7 ft are present
north of these boundaries and east of 57W. The remainder of the
SW North Atlantic is under the influence of a broad subtropical
ridge centered SE of Newfoundland, resulting in moderate or
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas.

The rest of the central and eastern Atlantic is dominated by broad
ridging. The pressure gradient between the broad ridge and lower
pressures in the deep tropics sustain moderate to locally fresh
easterly winds south of a line from the the western Canary
Islands to the northern Leeward Islands. Seas in these waters are
4-7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas
prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, surface ridging extending from high
pressure over the NW Atlantic is contributing towards moderate or
lighter winds across the region. A weak cold front is slowly
emerging from the SE United States with scattered showers and
thunderstorms associated with it. The front will move eastward
toward the Greater Antilles later this week and into the weekend,
bringing moderate to fresh winds. Otherwise, winds and seas away
from the thunderstorms should remain quiescent for the next few
days across the forecast waters.

$$
Delgado