793
AXNT20 KNHC 152337
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Tue Jul 15 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Florida Peninsula into the Northeastern Gulf (AL93): Satellite
and radar data indicate that the low pressure area previously over
the Atlantic is moving onto the coast of northeastern Florida.
This system is currently producing disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity, and little development is expected through
tonight while the center is over land. Once the system reaches the
northeastern Gulf on Wednesday, environmental conditions appear
generally favorable for additional development, and a tropical
depression could form while the system moves across the
northeastern and north-central Gulf and approaches the coast of
Louisiana on Thursday.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized
flash flooding over portions of Florida through Wednesday. Heavy
rainfall could also cause flash flooding for portions of the
north-central Gulf Coast beginning Wednesday and continuing through
Friday.This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone
development during the next 48 hours and also during the next 7
days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has emerged off the coast of West Africa. The wave
extends from 06N to 20N with axis near 18W, moving westward at
5-10 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is from
09N to 17N between 12W and 21W.

A tropical wave is E of the Lesser Antilles with axis near 55W
southward from 19N. The wave continues to move westward at 15-20
kt. There is no convection found near this wave.

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean with axis near 67W,
extending southward from 20N, and moving westward around 15 kt.
There is no convection found near this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of
W Africa near 18N16W, then curves southwestward through 10N27W
to 05N39W. The ITCZ continues NW to 08N53W. Aside from the
convection associated with the tropical wave E of the Cape Verde
Inslads, a 1011 mb low embedded in the monsoon near 06N36W is
generating scattered moderate convection from 00N to 10N between
31W and 45W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure of 1020 mb across the north-central Gulf extends a
ridge southward to the Yucatan Channel and supports light to
gentle variable winds along with slight seas N of 23N and E of
93W. Moderate SE winds with seas to 4 ft are W of 93W to the W of
the High center. Over the Bay of Campeche and along the adjacent
waters of the Yucatan Peninsula, winds are moderate to fresh from
the NE. Otherwise, a 1013 mb low pressure, Invest AL93, over
northern Florida, is generating scattered heavy showers over most
of the E Gulf, E of 88W and N of 24N.

For the forecast, the high pressure will drift slowly W-NW and
settle across the NW Gulf through Thu. Invest AL93 is forecast to
move inland northern Florida tonight and reach the NE Gulf on
Wed, at which time environmental conditions appear generally
favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression
could form while the system moves across the NE and north-central
Gulf and approaches the coast of Louisiana on Thu. Regardless,
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some with strong
gusty winds along with locally rough seas, will accompany this
system.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Middle to upper level diffluence along with abundant moisture is
supporting heavy showers along Cuba and adjacent southern waters.
Otherwise, the resultant pressure gradient between the Bermuda
High and lower pressure over NW Colombia continue to support fresh
to strong trade winds over the south-central and portions of the
SW basin, and moderate to fresh easterlies elsewhere E of 80W.
Seas across the central and eastern basin are moderate to 7 ft,
except to 8 ft offshore Colombia. Light to gentle winds and slight
seas are elsewhere over the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, Central Atlantic high pressure will gradually
build westward toward Florida and into the eastern Gulf of America
through Sat. Fresh to strong trades and rough seas over the
south-central Caribbean will expand across most of the central
portions of the basin Wed through Sat as the Atlantic high
pressure shifts northward. These winds are expected to diminish
some in coverage during the upcoming weekend. Fresh E winds are
expected in the Gulf of Honduras Thu through Sat. Moderate to
fresh winds and moderate seas are expected in the eastern
Caribbean through the period while gentle to moderate winds and
slight to moderate seas will prevail in the NW portions. A pair of
tropical waves will move through the basin through Fri, mainly
producing active weather across the SW Caribbean waters Fri
through Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The low associated with Invest AL93 is over northern Florida and
showers are mainly inland. To the east, the Bermuda High and
associated ridge dominates the SW N Atlantic waters as well as
most of the central subtropical waters. The proximity of the low
to the NE Florida coast continues to support moderate to fresh SE
winds extending to just N of Freeport. Seas off NE Florida are
moderate to 6 ft. The pressure gradient resulting from the High
and a tropical wave moving through La Mona Passage is supporting
fresh to strong easterly winds N of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico
with seas to 6 ft. Elsewhere in the SW N Atlantic, winds are
moderate or weaker and seas slight to moderate. Over the central
subtropics, the tail of a cold front extends from 31N35W to
26N51W. Moderate N to NE winds along with seas to 7 ft follow this
front. Surface ridging and moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere
in the E subtropical Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, the low will continue to move
inland northern Florida tonight and reach the NE Gulf on Wed, at
which time environmental conditions appear generally favorable for
additional development, and a tropical depression could form
while the system moves across the NE and north-central Gulf. High
pressure over the central Atlantic will then build westward across
the region and across Florida late tonight through Sat in the
wake of the low pressure. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
be south of 28N and west of 75W tonight into early Wed morning.
The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge building westward
and the low pressure will support moderate to fresh SE to S winds
across the Bahamas and through the NW zones through early Thu.
Fresh to strong trades are expected south of the central Bahamas
to along the coasts of Cuba and Hispaniola through Thu night, then
mostly fresh trades through Fri night.

$$
Ramos