965
ACUS01 KWNS 040106
SWODY1
SPC AC 040104

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0804 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024

Valid 040100Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND INTO THE
ARKLAMISS...

...SUMMARY...
A line of thunderstorms will continue to pose primarily a damaging
wind threat across east Texas into the ArkLaMiss late this evening.
Additional elevated thunderstorms may develop tonight from central
to southern/southeast Oklahoma with a threat for large hail.

...Wisconsin/Northern Illinois...
A cluster of storms produced occasional wind damage from northeast
Iowa into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. However, radar
trends over the past hour indicate these storms have gusted out as
they moved into lesser instability. Therefore, an isolated wind gust
is possible this evening, but the greater threat has mostly ended.

...Dakotas...
A few stronger cells have developed across northern South Dakota
which necessitated southward expansion of the marginal. Otherwise,
the remainder of the marginal risk remains with some threat for
isolated damaging wind gusts with the secondary line of storms
associated with the primary mid-level shortwave trough, moving
across eastern Montana, toward increasing instability.

...Central to Southeast Oklahoma...
Several runs of the HRRR have shown widespread elevated thunderstorm
development between 03Z and 06Z from central Oklahoma and into
southeast Oklahoma as the low-level jet strengthens tonight. The 00Z
OUN RAOB shows 3000+ MUCAPE with deep moisture to near 725mb. The
warm temperatures near 700mb cast some doubt on storm coverage, but
the isentropic ascent may be sufficient for thunderstorm
development. If storms do occur, large hail (potentially 2+ inches)
will be possible given around 40 knots of effective shear, steep
lapse rates, and strong to extreme instability.

...East Texas into the ArkLaMiss...
A well-established line of thunderstorms continues across east
Texas, northern Louisiana and eastern Arkansas. The airmass ahead
remains quite unstable (3000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE) which may maintain
the severe wind threat for a few hours before it weakens due to
boundary layer cooling and increasing mid-level temperatures with
southward extent. A small region of greater tornado threat may be
present for the next 1 to 2 hours east of DFW where transient
low-level rotation has been evident. The FWS VWP shows favorable
low-level shear, but storms are expected to weaken within the next
few hours.

..Bentley.. 06/04/2024

$$