Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
613 AXPZ20 KNHC 300857 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu May 30 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is moving west at 10 to 15 kt off the coast of Nicaragua into the eastern Pacific, north of 07N. Scattered moderate convection is evident within 90 nm of the tropical wave axis from 07N to 10N. The tropical wave will enhance E gap wind flow across the Gulf of Papagayo over the next couple of days. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 11N105W to 08N115W. The ITCZ continues from 08N115W to 1011 mb low pressure near 07N131W to 08N137W to another 1011 mb low pressure near 08N137W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 09N between 121W and 124W, and from 07N to 09N between 131W and 134W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure prevails west of the Baja California peninsula. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and a trough over north central Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh winds west of the Baja California peninsula, as noted in recent observations. Light to gentle winds prevail over the remainder of the discussion waters. Recent altimeter satellite passes indicate 5 to 6 ft combined seas are west of the Baja California peninsula, and 4 to 5 ft over the remainder of the open waters off Mexico, and 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California. Hazy conditions persist off southern Mexico, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, due to agricultural fires over southern Mexico and Central America. Visibilities may decrease at times to 3 nm or less. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW to N winds will prevail off the Baja California peninsula through early next week. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail across the open waters. Seas will build to 9 to 10 ft in long period NW swell off of Baja California Norte tonight to Mon. Hazy conditions may persist off southern Mexico, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, due to agricultural fires over S Mexico and Central America. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A scatterometer satellite pass from 03 UTC confirmed moderate to fresh gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds prevail S of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range. Hazy conditions continue off the Central American coast due to agricultural fires in southern Mexico and Central America. Visibilities may decrease at times to 3 nm or less. For the forecast, moderate to fresh E gap winds are forecast across the Papagayo region into Sat morning. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail for the next several days. Hazy skies from smoke caused by agricultural fires over Mexico and Central America may reduce visibilities over portions of the Central American offshore waters the next few days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure prevails N of 20N. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ and within the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 6-8 ft, N of the ITCZ/monsoon trough to near 22N and W of 120W. Moderate winds, and seas of 5-6 ft, are elsewhere N of 20N. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-5 ft, are elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 5-6 ft, prevail S of the ITCZ/monsoon trough. For the forecast, little change is expected to the current conditions over much of the area the next few days. The main exception is N swell will move into the waters north of 25N and east of 130W tonight through Fri, with seas peaking near 10 ft. $$ Christensen