Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
719
FNUS74 KEPZ 282324
FWSEPZ
Spot Forecast for Cameron Creek RX...GILA NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
524 PM MDT Tue May 28 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 MDT on May 29.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Dry and stagnant pattern will remain in place across the desert southwest.
daily Min RH values will be in the single digits to low teens through the
remainder of the week and into early next week. Winds will predominately
remain west to southwest each afternoon through the middle of next week,
at 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 20 mph, with no significant trough passages
expected. Temperatures will remain in the middle to upper 80s each afternoon
with slight warming by the weekend and into early next week. No precipitation
or thunderstorm chances in the forecast. As we get closer to ignition date,
please continue to request spot forecasts.
.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 83-85.
Min humidity........6-9 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and terrain driven winds during the morning,
becoming southwest by the late morning to early
afternoon timeframe at 8 to 13 mph with gusts up to
20 mph.
Mixing height.......Below 1000 during the early morning, quickly increasing
to around 10600 ft AGL by the late morning/early afternoon.
Transport winds.....West around 9 mph shifting to the southwest 13
to 18 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (36900 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to very good (130300 knot-ft) in the
afternoon increasing to excellent (192100
knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........19 7 2 2 3
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1
Temp............65 73 78 82 83
RH..............18 13 11 9 7
20 ft wind......NW 5 SW 6 SW 10 SW 10 SW 12
20 ft wind gust.8 13 17 17 20
Mix hgt (ft)....1000 7900 10100 10600 10600
Transport wind..W 9 SW 13 SW 13 W 18 W 18
Haines index....5 5 5 5 5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..37 130 130 192 192
Ventrate Cat....POOR GOOD VYGD EXNT EXNT
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 53 to 55.
Max humidity........Around 20 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 7 to 10 mph shifting to the
north around 7 mph after 3 am.
Mixing height.......700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 15 to 20 mph shifting to the northwest
around 14 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (188400 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
(8900 knot-ft) in the late evening and
overnight.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........5 5 2 3 3 3
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............79 70 65 61 58 56
RH..............8 10 13 16 19 20
20 ft wind......W 10 W 10 NW 8 NW 7 NW 7 N 7
20 ft wind gust.20 20 15 13 13 12
Mix hgt (ft)....9900 9900 700 700 700 700
Transport wind..W 20 W 20 NW 15 NW 15 NW 14 NW 14
Haines index....5 5 5 5 5 5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..188 188 9 9 9 9
Ventrate Cat....EXNT EXNT POOR POOR POOR POOR
.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 83.
Min humidity........8 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds around 6 mph shifting to the
west 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......11800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 10 to 16 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (35000 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to very good (109800 knot-ft) in the
afternoon increasing to excellent (180500
knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
Sky (%).........6 7 5 6
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1
Temp............55 67 77 82
RH..............20 16 11 9
20 FT wind......N 6G12 NW 6G13 W 9G17 W 12G21
Mix hgt (ft)....4400 4400 10800 11800
Transport wind..NW 10 NW 10 W 10 W 16
Haines index....5 5 5 6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..35 35 110 181
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR VYGD EXNT
.FORECAST DAYS 6 THROUGH 7...
.FRIDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the mid to upper 80s. Winds
out of the southwest to west at 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 20 mph. Min RH
values in the upper single digits. Overnight recoveries in the mid 20s.
.Saturday...
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the mid to upper 80s. Winds
out of the west at 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 20 mph. Min RH
values in the upper single digits. Overnight recoveries in the mid 20s.
.Sunday...
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the mid to upper 80s. Winds
out of the west at 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 20 mph. Min RH
values in the upper single digits. Overnight recoveries in the mid 20s.
.MONDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the mid 80s. Winds out of the
west at 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 20 mph. Min RH values in the upper single
digits. Overnight recoveries in the mid 20s.
.TUESDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the upper 80s. Winds out of
southwest to west at 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 20 mph. Min RH values in
single digits to low teens. Overnight recoveries in the mid to uppers 20s.
$$
Forecaster...ROGERS
Requested by...Silver City Interagency Dispatch Center
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2415232.0/EPZ
.DELDT 05/28/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nmsdc@firenet.gov