Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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007 FXUS63 KMPX 280615 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 115 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are producing small hail and frequent lightning this afternoon across central and southern MN. Brief funnel clouds have been reported at times as well. - Things become fairly quiet with seasonable temperatures and the next chance for widespread rain arriving near the end of the week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 831 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 With today`s shortwave exiting southeast MN, the loss of daytime heating, and the fact that we`ve already consumed a good deal of our instability earlier in the day, shower intensity and coverage has been rapidly diminishing in the last hour as expected. We don`t have to wait long for the next shortwave, which is already pushing into northern NoDak. This wave will be working through our MN portion of the forecast area late tonight through Tuesday morning. Given what just happened earlier in the day, there will be less moisture and instability to work with for this wave, but we should still see scattered showers work across the area through the morning as this initial part of the next shortwave works through. For Tuesday afternoon, we`ll have cyclonic flow aloft, with one more piece of shortwave energy heading into western WI, which will support another round of scattered showers and storms. Highest confidence in afternoon showers occurring is for east of I-35, but several of the CAMs show showers extending back across much of central MN, so have expanded 20% pops back west a ways for Tuesday afternoon. After this wave on Tuesday, we get a break from precip Wednesday and Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 229 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 A broken line of thunderstorms has tracked through portions of south- central Minnesota already this afternoon, resulting in multiple reports of half-inch or smaller hail. A broader area of scattered showers/storms encompasses much of central and southern Minnesota behind the aforementioned line. Hail and lightning with these cells are much more sporadic and limited compared to the broken line. This whole smattering of storms will continue to move southeastward this afternoon in tandem with the exiting surface low pressure system. Brief funnel clouds, and a weak landspout or two, are possible with these storms, especially along the boundary associated with the occluded low. SPC`s mesoscale analysis page highlights increasing values of the non-supercell tornado parameter, pushing above 6 for areas near the MN/SoDak/NoDak border. Any severe potential should diminish early this evening, and scattered showers/storms will gradually taper off into tonight. A secondary, and more disorganized shortwave will eject down over the Great Lakes region tomorrow, bringing a chance (30-50%) of rain for areas along and east of I-35. Storm total QPF will be light and while a rumble or two of thunder is not out of the question, anything severe is unlikely. Surface high pressure will move in Wednesday morning, resulting in a a couple of nice days with mostly sunny skies and light winds. Temperatures are expected to generally trend upwards for the near future, with persistent highs in the 80s possible by the start of next week. Lows will also be trending up after Tuesday night, with low 60s possible heading into early next week. Nearing the end of this week, a broad upper-level trough pattern will slide eastward from the Pacific NW bringing off- and-on chances for showers/storms through the weekend. Any severe threat looks to stay further west, or is too low for predictability at this time. Long-term models generally show a large positive 500hPa height anomaly building over the western half of the CONUS by early next week, supporting the idea of a general upward trend in temps and a potentially less active period of weather ahead. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1219 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Still a fairly agitated sky given the lingering frontal boundary across southern MN into southern WI at initialization. Precip has ended at all TAF sites to start, but scattered showers are expected to re-develop over mainly eastern-southern MN into western WI later this morning and persist into early afternoon. Not expecting much in the way of category reduction but MVFR conditions certainly are viable. Cannot rule out CB/TS should storms grow tall enough but chances are too low to include at this point so will need to see how radar trends develop. Once into late afternoon and early evening, the front will shift away to the southeast, allowing VFR conditions to prevail this evening through Wednesday morning. Winds will remain mainly NW, with some occasional gustiness this afternoon. KMSP...Have highlighted the 12z-16z timeframe as the best window for MSP to see showers, but additional development this afternoon could push that timing out to near 18-20z. Not looking for much in the way of QPF, only a few hundredths up to a tenth of an inch, thus heavy showers are not expected. Same with CB/TS, chances are too low to include at this point. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. Wind SE 10-15 kts. FRI...Mainly VFR. Chance -SHRA/MVFR. Wind S 10-15 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ UPDATE...MPG DISCUSSION...BED AVIATION...JPC