Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
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012 FNUS73 KOAX 310921 FWSOAX Spot Forecast for LHPS GRASS Event 2024...Iowa DNR National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 421 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CDT on May 31. If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather Service. .DISCUSSION... Ongoing showers and storms are on a downward trend which should give a mostly dry period this morning, but can`t completely rule out a stray shower moving through in the 8 AM to noon window. After that, expect scattered storms to redevelop, and while there will likely be gaps between storms, there`s a 60-70 percent chance of a storm moving through at some point in the afternoon. Otherwise, expect temperature at ignition to be around 63 degrees with RH around 93 percent. Winds should be out of the southeast at 5 to 10 mph with a few gusts of 15 to 20 mph, though speed and direction could be little erratic with any storm that passes through. Expect a high temperature of 75 and a minimum RH around 72 percent. Saturday looks drier with rain chances likely holding off until the late evening hours. Expect fairly similar temperatures and RH values dipping into the 40s. Winds will be out of the northwest through mid-afternoon before becoming southerly by late afternoon/early evening. Strongest Possible Wind Speeds on Day of Burn: 35 mph, would likely be associated with showers/storms Lowest Possible Relative Humidity on Day of Burn: 50% .REST OF TODAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Chance of showers early in the morning. Chance of thunderstorms through the day. Showers likely in the afternoon. Max temperature.....Around 75. Min humidity........72 percent. Eye level winds.....Light winds becoming southeast up to 6 mph with gusts to around 12 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Surface winds (mph).Light winds becoming southeast 6 to 10 mph with gusts to around 20 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 9 mph with gusts to around 16 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms early in the morning. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon. Mixing height.......3400 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Southeast 13 to 16 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Fair (13800 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to good (42000 knot-ft) in the afternoon. GFDI................0. Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (CDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%).........83 81 92 78 83 87 90 89 92 90 Weather cov.....SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW Tstm cov........SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC Temp............63 65 68 71 72 72 73 71 71 71 RH..............96 93 81 76 77 74 72 75 76 76 20 FT wind dir..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE 20 FT wind spd..4 5 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 20 FT wind gust.8 10 11 13 14 16 16 16 14 14 Eye lvl wnd dir.SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE Eye lvl wnd spd.3 4 4 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 Eye lvl wnd gst.6 7 8 10 10 12 12 12 11 10 Surface wnd dir.SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE Surface wnd spd.5 6 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 Surface wnd gst.10 12 14 16 17 20 20 20 18 17 Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 1.7 2.5 2.5 3.4 3.2 2.9 2.7 2.4 2.1 Transp wind dir.SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE Transp wind spd.13 13 14 15 16 15 16 16 14 13 GFDI............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 SDspl kt-ft/100014 22 30 36 41 42 39 34 29 25 .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms in the evening, then chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms overnight. Min temperature.....Around 59. Max humidity........100 percent. Eye level winds.....Southeast winds around 4 mph early in the evening becoming light. Surface winds (mph).Southeast winds around 8 mph decreasing to 6 to 8 mph early in the evening, then becoming light in the late evening and overnight. Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds around 7 mph decreasing to 5 to 6 mph early in the evening, then becoming light in the late evening and overnight. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms early in the evening. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in the late evening and overnight. Mixing height.......600 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Southeast 7 to 14 mph shifting to the southwest around 7 mph early in the morning. Smoke dispersal.....Fair (22000 knot-ft) early in the evening decreasing to poor (3200 knot-ft) late in the night. GFDI................0. Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM Sky (%).........91 87 95 89 82 76 Weather cov.....LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY CHANCE S CHC Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE S CHC S CHC S CHC Temp............70 68 64 63 62 61 RH..............76 78 90 93 93 98 20 ft wind......SE 6 SE 5 SE 4 SE 3 S 2 SW 2 20 ft wind gust.13 10 7 6 6 6 Eye level wind..SE 4 SE 4 SE 3 SE 2 S 1 SW 1 Eye lvl wnd gst.10 7 5 4 4 4 Surface wind....SE 8 SE 6 SE 5 SE 4 S 3 SW 3 Surface wnd gst.16 12 9 7 7 7 Mix hgt (ft)....1900 1100 600 700 700 600 Transport wind..SE 14 SE 10 SE 8 S 8 S 9 S 8 GFDI............0 0 0 0 0 0 Haines index....3 3 3 3 3 3 SDspl kt-ft/100022 13 4 4 4 4 .SATURDAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) then becoming mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Max temperature.....Around 79. Min humidity........49 percent. Eye level winds.....Light winds becoming northwest around 4 mph late in the morning, then becoming light late in the afternoon. Surface winds (mph).Light winds becoming northwest around 6 mph late in the morning, then becoming light late in the afternoon. Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming northwest around 5 mph late in the morning, then becoming light late in the afternoon. Mixing height.......5000 ft AGL. Transport winds.....West around 7 mph shifting to the northwest, then shifting to the west around 8 mph late in the afternoon. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (7800 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to good (37700 knot-ft) in the afternoon. GFDI................0. Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM Sky (%).........78 77 71 50 33 32 Weather cov..... Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........ Temp............59 61 67 72 76 77 RH..............100 99 84 68 61 53 20 ft wind......W 2 NW 3 NW 4 NW 5 NW 5 W 4 20 ft wind gust.6 6 7 10 10 8 Eye level wind..W 1 NW 2 NW 3 NW 4 NW 4 W 3 Eye lvl wnd gst.4 4 5 7 7 6 Surface wind....W 3 NW 4 NW 5 NW 6 NW 6 W 5 Surface wnd gst.7 7 9 12 12 10 Mix hgt (ft)....700 1100 2000 3300 4600 5000 Transport wind..W 7 W 12 NW 12 NW 10 N 12 W 8 GFDI............0 0 0 0 0 0 Haines index....3 3 3 3 4 4 SDspl kt-ft/10008 13 20 32 38 35 $$ Forecaster...CA Requested by...Kody Wohlers Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2415388.0/OAX .DELDT 05/31/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL kwohlers@inhf.org