613
FXUS62 KRAH 061831 RRA
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
231 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the area tonight. High pressure will
move in with less humid air for the weekend. A passing disturbance
will bring unsettled weather Sunday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1048 AM Thursday...

...There is a Level-1 (Marginal Risk) For Severe Storms this
afternoon and early evening...

...Gusty wind is expected to be the primary hazard with the stronger
storms and isolated storms may reach severe limits...

Central NC will lie along the southern fringes of the mid-level
cyclone and associated upper trough moving through the Upper Great
Lakes. The attendant trailing surface front will crossing the area
overnight.

Morning stratus will give way to increasing sun. Strong insolation
within the 67 to 73 BL dewpoints will yield moderate buoyancy by the
afternoon as temperatures warm into the mid 80s NW to lower 90s SE.
The weak band of showers that`s currently moving into the mtns
should intensify as it moves east into the western Piedmont, with a
broken band of showers and storms expected to cross the area between
18 to 03z. While the stronger shear resides north of the area, deep
layer shear over NC of 20-25 kts will pose more of an isolated
severe threat, with damaging wind gusts the primary threat, with the
severe greatest between 4-8 pm.

Highs will be warmer than today, especially across the eastern half
of the forecast area where the later arrival of showers and storms
should allow for some strong heating. Highs ranging from mid 80s NW
to lower 90s SE.

Some isolated showers will be possible overnight/predawn hours
Friday morning as the lagging cold front crosses the area. Lows 65-
70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 135 PM Thursday...

This period will be largely dry with lower humidity. The cold front
is expected to be pushing through the Coastal Plain Fri morning
before settling to our SE, as high pressure over MO/AR drifts
eastward and into our area with a dry and diffluent NW/NNW low level
flow. PWs will drop to an inch or less and remain low through at
least the first half of Sat. We will see a lee trough set up over NC
Sat as a second cold front pushes through the Midwest and toward our
area, with PWs expected to rebound back near 1.5" as a weak mid
level trough and slug of deeper moisture cross the area Sat
evening/night, however point soundings show that much of this
moisture is in the mid-upper levels, with minimal lower level
moisture, thus expect it to stay largely dry with little more than a
few sprinkles. Temps are likely to stay within a degree or two of
normals for highs and lows, although perhaps a bit warmer Sat night
with an expected increase in clouds. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 231 PM Thursday...

Upper level low pressure over eastern Canada and associated surface
low will drag a cold front across much of the eastern CONUS on
Sunday, including NC. PW`s will remain at or above 1.5 inches across
the area on Sunday ahead of the front, but most guidance shows
precip lagging behind and not moving through NC until late in the
day, perhaps as late as 00Z. I will maintain 20-30 PoPs across the
area Sunday afternoon through the early overnight hours as the front
moves through. Temps Sunday within the warm sector ahead of the
front should easily reach the upper 80s across the western Piedmont,
to the mid 90s across the southeast. Lows Sunday night likely
ranging from the mid to upper 60s.

In the wake of the front, broad WNW flow aloft is expected across
the area through at least Tuesday. There are some ensemble solutions
that suggest a trailing shortwave trough will cross the mountains
and move through the area on Monday, kicking off additional showers
in the process. Between the presence of a lee trough and a potential
shortwave, I can`t entirely rule out some isolated showers on Monday
but they will be occurring within a relatively dry post-frontal
atmosphere featuring sub 1.0" PW`s and weak forcing. 15-20 PoPs
primarily during the afternoon/early evening hours are well
supported by today`s ensembles. Highs Monday will range from the
lower 80s in the west to upper 80s in the east. Lows in the upper
50s to mid 60s.

Forecast confidence is relatively low for Tuesday through Thursday
given the changing nature of the upper flow and how quickly it
transitions from northwesterly to weak ridging to southwesterly.
Tuesday looks to be the day where upper ridging is most likely
although some isolated weak diurnal showers are still possible. As
the week progresses, return flow sets up and higher PW`s begin to
creep northward, yet upper shortwaves and best forcing remains
displaced west of the area. PoPs from Tuesday onward will be
primarily diurnal in nature ranging from 20-30 percent area-wide.
This time period will also feature steadily increasing temperatures
with highs returning to the upper 80s. Lows in the mid/upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 130 PM Thursday...

24-hour TAF period:

Any lingering 2-3kft MVFR ceilings will lift to VFR at or shortly
after 18z. A fragmented line of showers and storms associated with a
pre-frontal trough is expected to move east across central NC during
the afternoon and evening. The best guess is for the line and
associated brief restrictions to impact KINT and KGSO between 18-
22z, RDU and KFAY 22-02z, and KRWI 23-02z.
Additionally, SW gusts of 18-23 kts will continue ahead of the
convection. In the wake of the convection, expect VFR conditions
overnight with winds becoming W-NWLY behind the frontal passage.

Outlook: A moisture starved cold front could bring some isolated
showers or storms Sunday night. Otherwise, mostly dry VFR conditions
are expected through Tuesday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...Hartfield
LONG TERM...Leins
AVIATION...CBL