-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
539
FXUS62 KILM 031051
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
651 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move farther off the Carolina coast this
week. Southerly winds will bring warmer and more humid air
northward, resulting in isolated to scattered mainly afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms through at least Thursday.
A cold front could reach the Carolinas on Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Showers along the I-95 corridor are moving slowly this morning
and bringing light to moderate rainfall. Models are not well
initiated in regards to the current radar presentation. Expect
showers to maintain structure through mid morning before low
level mixing and dry air aloft scour the mass of precip. Still
expecting some showers and storms late this afternoon, but the
effect of early precip and lingering cold pool could hinder
these chances.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Light showers across the region this morning will decrease in
coverage initially as the first in a series of weak shortwaves
pushes offshore. A second weak shortwave will drift
southeastward across the Carolinas today. This, combined with an
inland moving sea breeze will bring isolated showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon.

High pressure drifting offshore will bring southerly flow and
help to push the sea breeze farther inland this afternoon.
Warmer temperatures today with afternoon highs in the mid and
upper 80s. Mild and humid overnight with lows in the upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Conditions Tuesday fairly similar to today, with sfc high
pressure still offshore and weak mid-level ridging in place.
Subsidence is not particularly strong however, and with a
developing aftn sea breeze and inland thermal trough expect
aftn/evening isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
especially inland. High temps 85-90 degrees, with lows Tuesday
night in the upr 60s/lwr 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Higher rain chances (up to 50-60%) for Wednesday and Thursday
than Tuesday, as better mid-level energy pivots through the
area and PWATs are up to around two inches. Temps will also
slowly rise through the week, into the low 90s by Thursday with
heat indices in the mid/upr 90s. A cold front is still progged
to cross the area by late Friday, but rain chances are
noticeably lower (only 20%) than previous days as deep-layer
moisture decreases. The drying trend continues into the weekend,
with temps still slightly above normal - highs in the upr
80s/lwr 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A few showers along the I-95 corridor will gradually come to an
end over the next couple of hours. LBT could see a brief period
at MVFR due to VIS restrictions. VFR for much of the day with
increasing southerly winds as high pressure shifts offshore.
Gusts up to 20 mph are possible at the coastal terminals this
afternoon in the sea breeze. PROB30 added for a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly inland
terminals. A small chance of fog overnight.

Extended Outlook...Isolated mainly afternoon and evening
thunderstorms will be possible through Wednesday, becoming a
little more widespread Thursday ahead of a front. VFR expected
Friday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Winds become southerly today as high pressure
moves offshore. Winds generally around 10 knots, increasing
near the coast as an afternoon sea breeze develops where gusts
up to 20 knots are possible. Seas 1- 2 feet.

Tuesday through Friday...Sub-SCA conditions continue this week
with persistent southerly flow up to ~15 kt at times with sfc
high pressure positioned offshore. Seas 2-3 ft
Tuesday/Wednesday, become 2-4 ft Thursday/Friday as the
pressure gradient tightens a bit ahead of an approaching cold
front. Sea state will consist of the southerly wind wave and a
steady 1-2 ft 7-8 second SE swell component.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Climatological Spring 2024 numbers are in and record-breaking
warmth occurred at Wilmington, NC where temperature records
date back to 1874.

Wilmington recorded its warmest spring on record with an average
March-May temperature of 66.4 degrees, breaking the record of
66.3 set back in the Spring of 2012. Although high temperatures
were warm, it was exceptional warmth for overnight lows that
really helped break the record.

In North Myrtle Beach this was the second warmest spring since
records began with an average spring temperature of 65.7
degrees. 2012 remains the warmest spring on record there.

Inland at Florence, SC and Lumberton, NC, both stations recorded
their sixth warmest spring on record with average temperatures
of 66.6 and 65.3 degrees, respectively.

Detailed spring climatological data is available in the seasonal
climate summaries (CLS) text products issued yesterday afternoon.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...21
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...21
MARINE...MAS/21
CLIMATE...ILM