-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
696
FXUS62 KRAH 150750
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
350 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front will cross central North Carolina early this morning,
then stall well to our south and east through the weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 310 AM Saturday...

Sfc analysis early this morning depicted a backdoor cold front along
the NC/VA border.  This feature will push south across central NC
through early this morning. Behind the front, dew points will
quickly crash into the upper 50s/lower 60s through this afternoon. A
brief period of post-frontal gusty nnely flow (10 to 20 mph) will be
possible this morning before subsiding early this afternoon.  H9
flow will be shore-parallel/offshore which should mostly pin any sea-
breeze induced convection to the coastal areas.  Additionally, the
aforementioned front should move south of area before instability
can really get going across our area. Thus, expecting mostly dry
conditions but can`t rule out a stray shower/storm moving into
southern Sampson county later today.

Despite the cold front passage, temps will still reach into the
upper 80s/lower 90s. Warm overnight lows in the upper 60s are
expected again.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 310 AM Saturday...

Mid-level ridging will start to build along the east coast Sunday.
At the sfc, Saturday`s cold front will remain stalled to our south.
As such, mostly dry and hot conditions will persist on Sunday as
temps rise again up into the upper 80s/lower 90s. Afternoon
convection should largely be confined to the upslope mountain areas.
However, a few isolated cells could trickle in the far western
Piedmont late afternoon. Overall though, it should be quite dry.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 310 AM Saturday...

The extended period will be largely warm and dry with no significant
frontal passages, as central NC is under the influence of an
anomalous mid/upper anticyclone that will continue to strengthen,
from 594 dam at 500 mb to as much as 600 dam by midweek. Latest
guidance is in pretty good agreement on the placement of the
anticyclone, with the 00z ECMWF and GFS keeping it centered over our
region on Monday before drifting it to the northern Mid-Atlantic and
New England from Tuesday through Thursday. Guidance then weakens it
slightly but drops it back south to the southern mid-Atlantic coast
on Friday. At the surface, high pressure initially centered off the
New England coast early in the week will slowly drift south closer
to Bermuda by late week, extending west into central NC. This will
keep the low-level flow over central NC largely from the SE through
the period.

Dry air and subsidence from the strong ridging both aloft and at the
surface should really suppress any convective development through
the period. The main effect in our region from the SE flow should
just be some clouds each afternoon, particularly in the west. A few
upslope showers and storms may develop each afternoon over the
Appalachians, but easterly flow aloft should help pin them close to
the mountains, which is backed up by the latest ensemble guidance.
The best chance of any drifting east into our western Piedmont is
Monday when the mid/upper anticyclone is directly overhead and the
flow aloft is weak, but still not enough confidence for any POPs at
this time. The ridge may start to break down some by late week, but
with the latest guidance bringing it farther south and closer to our
region than before, maintain a dry forecast through the period other
than slight chance POPs in the far SE on Friday.

Temperatures will be slightly above normal through the period, with
highs generally in the lower-to-mid-90s and lows in the mid-to-upper-
60s. The good news is models seem in pretty good agreement there
will be enough mixing to keep dew points from getting too
oppressive, generally lower-to-mid-60s. This will keep heat indices
each day very close to the actual air temperatures. Still, with such
an extended period of warm temperatures, basic heat precautions
should be made, including staying hydrated and taking frequent
breaks if you have to be outside in the hottest part of the day.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 209 AM Saturday...

VFR conditions will prevail through the 24 hr TAF period. A backdoor
cold front will push through mid-late this afternoon. The passage
should be dry, with a brief period of nly sfc gustiness (up to 15
kts) through early afternoon. Sfc flow will subside through the
later afternoon period.

Outlook:  Some early morning stratus could be possible especially at
KINT/KGSO Sunday and Monday mornings. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected.

&&


.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Green
NEAR TERM...Luchetti
SHORT TERM...Luchetti
LONG TERM...Danco
AVIATION...Luchetti