504
FXUS61 KAKQ 121906
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
306 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An unsettled weather pattern is expected to persist through next
week with scattered thunderstorms each day. Locally heavy rainfall
and localized flooding will be possible each day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 120 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Hot and humid inland this afternoon with heat indices in the
  lower 100s.

- Scattered showers and storms continue this afternoon with
  locally heavy rain and flash flooding possible.

A surface boundary was located near the Richmond Metro this
afternoon which has served as a focal point for convection. CAMs
have vastly underdone coverage and timing of convection this
afternoon. As such, have increased PoPs across the area to
25-40% (away from the coast) with scattered showers and storms
expected. Will note that these PoPs are above NBM guidance but
may still be too low in spots. Given 3500-4000 J/kg of SBCAPE,
1.6-1.7" PWATs, and very slow storm motions, locally heavy rain
and flash flooding is possible. The near-term greatest flash
flooding threat is the Richmond Metro where a Flash Flood
Warning has been issued given congealing storms over the city.
However, given that it is only 1 PM (as of writing this
discussion) there is plenty of daylight left for additional
storm development with additional flooding possible through this
afternoon. WPC has maintained a Marginal risk for excessive
rainfall across most of the inland areas today. Will note that
CAMs show the potential for a line (or cluster) of storms moving
into the Piedmont this evening. While this may be too late, if
rounds of showers and storms continue into the evening, a
locally higher flash flooding threat would be possible.

Additionally, given the very high instability and DCAPE of
1100-1200 J/kg, a few strong to severe downbursts are possible.
However, given the very weak flow aloft, current thinking is
that most storms should be of the pulse variety. Brief strong
wind gusts are the main threat from water- loaded downdrafts
this afternoon and early evening. SPC has maintained the
western tier of counties in a Marginal Risk of severe.

Otherwise, temps as of 1 PM ranged from the mid 80 to lower 90s
with dew points in the 70s and heat indices in the mid 90s to
lower 100s. Afternoon highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s with
maximum heat indices in the lower 100s away from the coast are
expected. Warm and muggy overnight with lows in the 70s. Some
fog and low stratus are possible, especially in areas that see
rainfall during the afternoon/evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 305 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered storms are expected Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday.

- Locally heavy rain and localized flash flooding are possible Sunday,
  Monday, and Tuesday.

- There is a Marginal risk for a few severe storms on Sunday
  with damaging winds the primary threat.

A moist and unstable airmass remains in place across the region into
next week with daily chances for mainly afternoon and evening
scattered storms. SBCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg will likely continue
through at least Mon with weak shear aloft. As such, while
widespread, organized severe weather is not anticipated at this
time, a few strong to severe storms will continue to be possible
(similar to today). For now, SPC has a Marginal risk (level 1/5) for
damaging winds on Sun along and west of I-95. However, given greater
storm coverage on Mon, would not be surprised if Mon gets a severe
threat in future updates.

PoPs increase to 40-50% Sun afternoon and 50-65% across the NW half
of the area Sun evening. The higher PoPs in the late afternoon and
evening are due to CAMs showing a line of storms forming off the lee
trough and moving east into the NW half of the FA. A similar
situation is expected on Mon with PoPs again increasing to 50-65% in
the afternoon as a cold front approaches from the west. The
difference on Mon is that a larger portion of the area is likely to
experience storms. A cold front becomes stationary and washes out
across central VA on Tue. As such, scattered storms will again be
possible with the highest confidence across far southern VA and NE
NC. Given the wet antecedent conditions and day after day of
locally heavy rain, flash flooding will continue to be a concern
through early next week. WPC has a Slight risk for excessive
rainfall (ERO) across the NW Piedmont on Sun with a Marginal ERO
covering the rest of the NW half of the area to roughly the
I-95 corridor. WPC also has a Marginal ERO across nearly the
entire FA on Mon and the SW third of the FA on Tue. Will
reevaluate a potential Flood Watch tonight to allow for an
assessment of how much rain falls today and to see if there is a
stronger signal for heavy rain/flooding on the 00z CAMs.

Outside of daily convection, typically Summer heat continues with
highs in the mid 80s NE to lower 90s SW (most in the upper 80s to
lower 90s) Sun and Mon and upper 80s to lower 90s everywhere on Tue.
Given dew points in the mid-upper 70s each day, heat indices in the
upper 90s to lower 100s is expected all three days. That being said,
current model guidance suggest we should remain below Heat Advisory
criteria. Overnight lows in the low-mid 70s are expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 320 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

- Unsettled pattern continues into next week with seasonably warm
  and humid conditions and mainly diurnal shower and storm chances.

Afternoon and evening showers and storms continue well into next
week with the aforementioned cold front stalling near/just west of
the local area. Plenty of instability should be in place across the
region next week but the main belt of stronger flow aloft will be
displaced well to the north. Strong wind gusts and localized
flooding will continue to be a threat each afternoon and evening.
Temperatures top out in the upper 80s to low 90s Tuesday and
Wednesday with overnight lows remaining in the low to mid 70s.
Warmer conditions are expected by late week with highs creeping back
into the low to mid 90s. Afternoon heat indices potentially rise
back toward Heat Advisory criteria (105+) Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 153 PM EDT Saturday...

Scattered convection this afternoon has led to degraded flight
conditions at RIC and ECG. TEMPOs are in place for the next hour and
will need to be extended if the convection maintains itself through
19Z. Confidence is low in the timing and location of additional
storms developing near ORF, PHF, and SBY but they cannot be ruled
out. Storms should decrease in coverage heading into the evening.
Outside With light winds expected overnight, patchy fog/low stratus
is possible.

Outlook: Isolated to scattered afternoon-late evening tstms are
expected through the weekend and into early next week, along with
the potential for early morning fog/stratus.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 320 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions continue outside of local influences from
  afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected to prevail this weekend and continue
through the middle of next week as high pressure remains anchored
off the Southeast coast. The wind is mainly S 5-10kt early this
morning. A weak front will push across the coast later this morning
resulting in a wind shift to NE 5-10kt. By this aftn into this
evening, the wind will become ESE and mainly 5-10kt, with the
exception of 10-12kt in the Ches. Bay. The wind is expected to be SE
5-10kt Sunday with a slight diurnal increase during the late
aftn/early evening hours, and then mainly S to SW 5-10kt early next
week, before potentially becoming SW 10-15kt later Wednesday. Seas
will mainly be 2-3ft this weekend through the middle of next week,
with 1ft to occasionally 2ft waves in the Ches. Bay. Aftn/evening
showers/tstms will have limited coverage today and Sunday, with
potentially higher chances by Monday aftn/evening, and then less
coverage toward the middle of next week. The main hazards with tstms
will be brief strong wind gusts and frequent lighting.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...RMM
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RHR
AVIATION...RHR/NB
MARINE...AJZ