326
FXUS61 KALY 082358
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
758 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds will increase tonight as another upper shortwave and
associated surface low approach from the west. A period of light
to moderate rain will push across the region overnight through
tomorrow morning, with more scattered showers and below-normal
temperatures lingering Sunday afternoon and again on Monday as
upper troughing remains overhead.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...As of 755 PM EDT, dry weather is in place this
evening with shortwave ridging in place. Latest radar does show
some echoes advancing into western New York but none of this is
reaching the ground. Expect a gradual increase in clouds into
the overnight hours with rain beginning across areas north and
west of Albany between 4-7am before advancing eastward through
Sunday morning. Main changes with this update were to PoPs to
account for the timing of the rain overnight and the QPF which
does increase it slightly more with amounts between 0.50 and
1.00 inches for areas mainly north and west of Albany and less
than 0.50 inches to the south and east.

Previous Discussion:
A lobe of upper-level vorticity pivoting to the east this
afternoon and evening will see diminishing showers through this
evening as shortwave ridging builds in tonight. With a locally
tight surface pressure gradient in place and deep mixing beneath
the upper-level cold pool, gusty west- northwest winds reaching
25-35 mph are expected to continue through this evening. Brief
subsidence associated with shortwave ridging will aid in
weakening the gradient as winds diminish later this evening and
overnight tonight.

A second lobe of upper vorticity wrapping about the parent upper
trough will see a compact area of surface low pressure track
eastward along the PA/NY border and into southern New England.
This system will bring a steadier period of rain overnight and
into Sunday morning. Temperatures look to remain somewhat mild
during ongoing rainfall, reaching overnight lows in the upper
40s to upper 50s across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As the second shortwave exits to the east by Sunday evening,
steady rain in the morning will transition to a more showery
distribution. Relatively steep lapse rates beneath the upper
cold pool may support sufficient instability to see isolated
thunderstorms develop through the afternoon, with gusty winds
and small hail possible within brief convective storms.
Temperatures remain similar to today, reaching afternoon highs
in the upper 50s to mid 60s in high terrain and upper 60s to mid
70s at lower elevations. Showers decrease in coverage through
the evening, with rain most likely in the southwestern
Adirondacks in closer proximity to enhancement by lake moisture.
Overnight temperatures trend slightly cooler beneath clearing
skies, reaching lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s across the
region.

Another upper shortwave trough looks to pivot through the
region on Monday, bringing additional chances for scattered
showers. Temperatures remain at or below seasonal norms, with
afternoon highs in the upper 50s to upper 60s in high terrain
and upper 60s to mid 70s at lower elevations. Robust height
increases aloft through Monday night as large-scale troughing
finally exits eastward will see dry weather return across the
region, with lows remaining cool in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Large-scale upper ridging will build over much of the East Coast
while a cutoff upper low lingers over the Mid-Atlantic. Largely
dry conditions will return to the region, although isolated
diurnally-forced showers are possible Tuesday afternoon beneath
partly cloudy skies. Temperatures look to remain near normal,
reaching highs in the the 60s to mid 70s across the region.
Clearing skies overnight will see temperatures fall to lows in
the mid 40s to mid 50s.

Upper-level ridging centered to the east of the forecast area
with subsequent mid-level southwesterly flow overhead look to
persist through the latter half of the week. This pattern may
yield temperatures trending well above normal by the end of the
workweek, reaching highs in the 70s in high terrain and 80s to
near 90 degrees at lower elevations by Friday. Overnight lows
will likely trend milder as well, with temperatures only
falling into the 50s to mid 60s each of Wednesday through
Saturday nights.

An upper-level trough approaching late in the week looks to
bring the next widespread chances for rain showers to the region
as a surface cold front passes over the region Thursday or
Friday into next weekend. Given the antecedent airmass in place,
thunderstorms remain possible, particularly following peak
diurnal heating Friday afternoon and evening.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00z/Mon...VFR conditions will be in place this evening
with clouds gradually thickening and lowering overnight. A
period of light to moderate rain will move across the TAF sites
beginning near daybreak Sunday and continue through Sunday
morning. Conditions may continue in the VFR range at the onset
of rain but then quickly lower to MVFR or even IFR levels,
especially at KGFL/KALB/KPSF, as rain becomes steadier. Cigs and
vsbys should improve back to VFR by Sunday afternoon as the
rain tapers off to isolated showers. Will include a VCSH at this
time for the afternoon shower potential.

Wind will become light and variable overnight into Sunday
morning, then increase out of the west at 10-15 kt with gusts to
25 kt by Sunday afternoon.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Picard/Rathbun
NEAR TERM...Picard/Rathbun
SHORT TERM...Picard
LONG TERM...Picard
AVIATION...Rathbun