026
FXUS61 KALY 091440
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1040 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance and low pressure system will bring
steady rain to most areas for this morning, tapering to
scattered afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms. Cool and
somewhat unsettled conditions will then continue through Tuesday
as an upper level trough remains nearby. High pressure will
bring gradual improvement for mid week, along with warmer
temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...As of 1040 AM EDT, the upper shortwave is passing
overhead while the best forcing for ascent on its eastern flank
is exiting eastward into New England. As a result, the steadier
rain has begun to wane, replaced by a more showery distribution
spreading from west to east. Rainfall totals of one to three
quarters of an inch have been widely observed, with lower
amounts along the I-84 corridor and across the central
Adirondacks, and slightly higher totals approaching an inch
along the I-88 corridor.

As the shortwave continues eastward, rain and cloud coverage
will decrease into this afternoon. Given diurnal heating, CAMs
continue to show up to a few hundred J/kg of CAPE, supporting
isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening despite the
lower shower coverage. Thermodynamics remain supportive of
small hail and/or briefly gusty winds reaching the surface
within any stronger convective cells, but storms are not
expected to reach severe thresholds.

.PREV DISCUSSION [0630 AM EDT]...Strong shortwave approaching
from northern Great Lakes with compact low pressure across NW PA
spreading light to moderate stratiform rain shield across
western/central NY, and entering the western Mohawk Valley/SW
Adirondacks. Hourly rainfall rates of 0.25-0.35/hour have been
observed per NYS Mesonet obs across western NYS. Strong low/mid
level frontogenesis and moisture transport should allow bands of
moderate rain to quickly expand eastward, encompassing most
areas near and north of I-90 by 6 AM. Rain should then expand
southward as well, reaching the I-84 corridor between 8-11 AM.
The area of steady rain should then shift eastward into western
New England by mid to late morning, with rain tapering off to
showers for areas west of the Hudson River by late morning, and
areas to the east shortly after noontime.

A lull in the rain is expected early this afternoon, with some
breaks in the clouds developing from NW to SE during the
afternoon. However, cold air aloft and increasing dynamical lift
from a potent shortwave approaching from the west should allow
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop across
the SW Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley later this
afternoon, some of which should migrate into the Capital Region
and eastern Catskills between 6-8 PM. Some heavier showers or
isolated thunderstorms could contain locally gusty winds and
perhaps small hail later this afternoon through early evening,
given somewhat inverted-V signature on forecast soundings, and
low wet bulb zero heights.

It will become breezy later this afternoon, with west/northwest
winds possibly gusting up to 30 mph at times within the Mohawk
Valley, Capital Region and Berkshires. Afternoon high temps
should reach the upper 60s to lower 70s within valleys, and
mainly upper 50s to lower/mid 60s across higher terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Scattered showers or isolated thunderstorms will continue
through this evening as potent shortwave crosses the region.
Coverage should then quickly decrease later this evening and
overnight, with skies becoming clear to partly cloudy for most
areas south of I-90, while remaining partly to mostly cloudy
farther north. Some rain showers may persist across portions of
the SW Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley due to some lake
enhancement. Low temperatures will be in the mid 40s to lower
50s, coolest across the SW Adirondacks.

Upper level trough and associated mid to upper level cold pool
will remain nearby through Tuesday, allowing for diurnal
increases in cloud cover and development of isolated to
scattered showers, especially Monday afternoon. Afternoon
instability looks weak and rather shallow, so no mention of
thunder at this time. Temperatures will remain below normal,
with highs in the upper 60s to lower to mid 70s in valleys, and
upper 50s to lower 60s across higher elevations. Overnight lows
will be somewhat chilly, with lower to mid 40s across portions
of the southern Adirondacks, southern VT and upper Hudson
Valley, and lower 50s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Upper level trough finally exits off the the New England coast by
Wed, with a drier NW flow developing as weak high pressure builds in
from the west. This should result in dry conditions with
temperatures warming to slightly above normal levels. Flat ridging
expected to remain in place on Thu, although with winds shifting to
the SW, temperatures could warm considerably with upper 80s
attainable in the Hudson Valley. Dewpoints look relatively low (50s
to around 60), so it won`t feel humid.

Fri could be a potentially active day, as a strong upper level
trough and surface cold front are forecast to approach from the
Great Lakes, while a very warm and increasingly unstable air mass
develops ahead of this system. Depending on the timing and
magnitude of instability/shear, there could be some stronger storms
if the parameters and forcing line up during the peak heating
hours. Will continue to monitor trends. Temperatures will be
quite warm ahead of this system, with dewpoints creeping into
the 60s making it feel more humid. Heat index values may
approach or slightly exceed 90F Fri afternoon in valley
locations.

Showers and storms should end by early Sat morning in wake of the
upper trough and cold front passage. Drier and relatively cooler air
filters in on Sat.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 12z Monday...Steady rain has enveloped the
KALB/KGFL/KPSF TAF sites early this morning. Will continue to
mention prevailing -RA/RA at these sites through late morning,
but the steadiest rain is expected to stay just north of KPOU so
will mention a TEMPO for occasional -RA there. Flying
conditions will be MVFR with occasional IFR for a few hours
prior to rain ending.

Rain will end rather quickly by around 15z-16z, with conditions
improving to MVFR then VFR during the afternoon. Scattered SHRA
and isolated TSRA then expected from late afternoon into the
evening hours as another disturbance moves through. Brief MVFR
conditions will be possible, but did not include at this time
due to sparse coverage.

Winds this morning will initially be south-southwest around 3-8
kt, becoming west-northwest and increasing to 10-15 kt with
gusts of 20-25 kt during the afternoon. Winds speeds will
decrease to around 10 kt or less tonight.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL/Picard
NEAR TERM...KL/Picard
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV