Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
407 FXUS64 KAMA 061941 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 241 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 240 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Northwest flow aloft can be seen in this mornings upper air sounding, as well as current GOES-16 water vapor imagery. GOES water vapor paints a bigger picture of the upper level pattern with an negatively tilted trough located over the Great Lakes Region and a ridge over the Desert Southwest. At the surface, northerly winds are observed in the northwestern quarter to third of the combined Panhandles. Elsewhere southerly winds are being observed. This is from a stalled cold front, which may play a role in some afternoon/evening thunderstorms, mainly across central to eastern portions of the FA. With PWATs above an inch, dewpoints in the 60s, and H7 theta-e advection near 340K, there is plenty of moisture available for some possible thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. Especially along the stalled frontal boundary where some surface convergence may help if convective temperatures struggle to hit. This mornings upper sounding from KAMA does depict a dry layer from about H85 to H5, one could say an onion sounding. This will lead to a possibility of severe wind gusts up to 70 mph, potentially higher. This morning sounding does give a DCAPE value around 1500 J/Kg. The best chances for the afternoon/evening thunderstorms will be along the Canadian Valley southward towards the I-40 corridor. There is some uncertainty to the westward extent of this activity and if Amarillo will see any thunder. A shortwave in the northwest flow aloft is progged to develop and help spark some storms, but this will be later tonight into tomorrow morning primarily in the northeastern combined Panhandles. Overnight the frontal boundary will retreat to the northeast with easterly upsloping winds across the northern half of the FA. Surface winds are progged to return to the the south tomorrow and a LLTR should build into the FA bringing H85 temperatures near 32 degrees C. Wide spread temps in the upper 90s to triple digits are expected for Friday afternoon because of this. Another Heat Advisory is expected to be needed again for PDC. Later in the day Friday, models are hinting at some shortwaves moving across the area with semi-zonal flow in place aloft. This will bring some chances for thunderstorms again, mainly to the northern combined Panhandles. With high DCAPE values around 1500 to 2000 J/Kg, and MLCAPE values near 1000 J/Kg severe storms are possible once again with the main threat being damaging winds. 36 && .LONG TERM ... (Saturday through nexI t Wednesday) Issued at 240 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Thunderstorm chances continue through the weekend. Mainly Sat night and again Sun night, with Sun night looking more favorable for widespread showers and thunderstorms with upsloping easterly surface winds and the possibility of a stout shortwave trough moving across. For Saturday, one last hoorah under the ridge will allow widespread temperatures in the lower triple digits for much of the Texas Panhandle. Temperatures across the far northern Texas Panhandle and the Oklahoma Panhandle are only expected to be in the upper 90s do to the encroachment of a cold front. As far as thunderstorm chances go, have stayed with NBM PoPs which gives widespread 40s across the area going into Sat evening. The cold front will help, but a shortwave is progged to move across the area Sat evening as well. Thanks to this front, much cooler temperatures are in store for Sun, with highs in the 70s to the north and 80s to the southern FA. Moisture should not be a problem on Sunday as PWATs approach 200% of normal. Also, with a much more robust shortwave trough progged to move through the area, PoPs on Sunday are upwards of 70 for the southwestern half of the combined Panhandles. For Sunday night GFS Bufkit soundings have a very tropical look favoring some decent rain producers. Some thunderstorms may return Monday afternoon/evening, but after that conditions look to dry out as another ridge is expected to build over the area. Tues and Wed are looking mostly dry with temperatures returning well into the 90s by Wed afternoon. 36 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1056 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 18Z TAF period. There is a slight chance that KAMA may be impacted by thunderstorms this afternoon between 22Z and 00Z Friday. Confidence is low enough to leave the mention of thunder out of the TAF at this time. Be aware some amendments may be needed though. KDHT and KGUY may see NE winds while winds at KAMA should remain more southerly as a stalled surface boundary bisects the combined Panhandles. Expecting wind speeds to remain around 10 to 15 kts unless thunderstorms in the area modify the winds especially at KAMA on the south side of the surface boundary. 36 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 68 100 72 102 / 20 10 10 10 Beaver OK 66 101 69 96 / 30 20 20 10 Boise City OK 61 101 63 92 / 10 30 20 20 Borger TX 68 105 73 105 / 20 10 20 10 Boys Ranch TX 68 104 72 104 / 20 10 20 10 Canyon TX 66 100 71 102 / 20 0 10 10 Clarendon TX 66 98 71 101 / 30 10 10 10 Dalhart TX 64 102 66 98 / 10 20 20 20 Guymon OK 63 102 67 95 / 20 20 30 10 Hereford TX 69 101 70 103 / 20 0 10 10 Lipscomb TX 66 98 71 101 / 30 20 20 10 Pampa TX 66 99 72 101 / 30 10 10 10 Shamrock TX 67 97 71 101 / 30 10 10 10 Wellington TX 69 99 72 103 / 30 10 0 0 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...36 LONG TERM....36 AVIATION...36