208
FXUS64 KAMA 112339
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
639 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

A north-northwest flow aloft could drag a couple of thunderstorms
into our far northwest late this afternoon and this evening.  Have
added a slight chance to these areas for this possibility.  Any
storms are expected to decrease with the setting sun.

On Wednesday, thunderstorms are expected to develop along a surface
trough from northeast New Mexico into western Kansas.  The northwest
flow is very light, so it is uncertain on whether storms can make
into our area.  For now have left them out.  Highs on Wednesday are
expected to be around or just above average with readings in the
upper 80`s to the upper 90`s.

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

A southern stream sinusoidal pattern will dictate the weather
pattern late this week into the coming weekend, before H500 zonal
pattern returns next week to the southern High Plains.

To start on Thursday, a low amplitude H500 ridge enters the
western Panhandles. Could see a dirty ridge thunderstorm in the
northern Panhandles, but otherwise, mostly dry and warm
temperatures with H850 temps of +29 to +32C advecting into the
Panhandles. High temperatures on Thursday should be well above
average with many areas in the 100-104 degree range. If convective
temps are reached, aided by the perturbations on the ridge, more
areas could see more storms, and these storms could be strong to
severe, but this forecast will be more finely tuned as we get
closer.

Latest 11/12Z model and numerical guidance are in some accord that
a more organized h500 trough will traverse the Four Corners Region
and aid in lift for additional thunderstorm chances from west to
east throughout the afternoon and evening hours. Thunderstorms
could be strong to severe with better lift in the area where
large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the main threats. High
temperatures on Friday will remain above average.

From Saturday into next week, a slowly progression from zonal to
SW H500 flow should keep the area mostly dry. Diurnally driven
thunderstorms formed off near orthogonal sfc boundaries and/or
anemic perturbations in the synoptic flow could aid in
thunderstorm genesis. Temperatures this coming weekend into early
next week will remain above average.

Meccariello

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

VFR conditions are generally expected tonight and tomorrow,
although some low ceilings can`t be ruled out in the morning,
especially at KAMA. Variable winds will eventually settle out of
the south-southwest at 10-15 kts tomorrow through the end of the
period. Abundant low-level moisture is still in place as is
evident by low cumulus currently overhead, with more moisture on
the way. This could lead to some MVFR low ceilings or even patchy
fog for the southeast Texas Panhandle, possibly spreading towards
KAMA. Confidence is still somewhat low, so have held off on
introducing any flight restrictive categories to the TAFs. Any fog
or low ceilings that may develop would likely dissipate through
the late morning hours.

Harrel


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                61  90  66  99 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  63  95  67 104 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              60  96  63 101 /  20  10   0  10
Borger TX                  64  96  68 104 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              62  95  66 102 /  10   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  60  90  65  98 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               61  87  64  95 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 60  95  62 101 /  20  10   0   0
Guymon OK                  61  95  65 103 /   0   0   0  10
Hereford TX                61  92  65 100 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                62  93  67 101 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   62  90  66  99 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                62  88  66  96 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              63  89  66  96 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...38