454
FXUS63 KAPX 071958
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
358 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Break from the rain tonight but more arrives for Saturday.

- A few showers remain possible Sunday morning. Otherwise high
  pressure and quiet weather begins to build next week.

- Temperatures begin to climb next week along with returning
  chances of rainfall beginning overnight Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 355 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Clouds continue to swirl around northern
Michigan at mid afternoon with and upper low to the north of
Georgian Bay...along with scattered showers north of M-72.  But
breaks for sunshine are developing along the Lake Michigan shoreline
south of the Leelanau Penisula.  18z surface analysis shows a decent
pressure gradient between a 995mb low near James Bay...and a 1014mb
high over Arkansas that ridges northwest into the northern High
Plains.

Elongated upper trough/latent PV anomaly will span most of southern
Canada from southern Alberta/Saskatchewan...across Ontario and into
southern Quebec/New England.  Upper low to our northeast this
afternoon will move into New England by Saturday morning.  This will
be followed by another short wave trough moving along the cyclonic
shear side of the polar jet axis which will lie across Lower
Michigan on Saturday.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Break from the rain tonight but more arrives for Saturday:  Upper
low pulling away tonight to be replaced on a temporary basis by
short wave ridging that will cross the upper Lakes overnight/early
Saturday.  After a few lingering late afternoon showers expect some
clearing/drying from west to east as the evening progresses.  Clouds
will thicken up late tonight into northwest Lower and spread across
the forecast area Saturday morning along with an area of rain.
Precipitation chances should be widespread...current track of
stronger dynamics and some weaker stability suggests better QPF
potential across Upper Michigan through Saturday afternoon (0.25-
0.50 inch in spots).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 355 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Midlevel closed low pressure with shortwave troughing currently over
the Upper Great Lakes will continue the current cool and wet weather
pattern into next week. Upstream midlevel ridging over the western
half of the U.S will build this weekend, eventually pushing the
current trough to the northeast and returning the region to a
quieter weather pattern along with surface high pressure and
building temperatures to a more climatological norm.

Surface high pressure and sunny skies will continue for the first
half of the work week as the ridge progresses towards the east
coast. At the same time, a second midlevel trough currently over
northern Saskatchewan will move eastward towards the southern Hudson
Bay. As a result, the Great Lakes region will transition to quasi-
zonal/weak troughing midlevel pattern that supports precipitation
returning later next week.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages:

A few showers remain possible Sunday morning. Otherwise high
pressure and quiet weather begins to build next week: Overall,
no impactful weather is expected for the duration of the long
term period. Best chance of showers remains at the beginning and
towards the end of the long term starting with chances of
showers Saturday night into the daytime Sunday. Mostly cloudy
and breezy northwest conditions can be expected this Sunday, but
lingering bits of low level moisture and some remaining bits
energy could fire off a few showers before ridging eventually
builds into the region Sunday evening.

Temperatures begin to climb next week along with returning
chances of rainfall beginning overnight Tuesday: Surface high
pressure will result in sunny skies and temperatures slowly
increasing next week. Temps will climb well above average for
mid June, as highs can be expected to reach the mid 80s for most
areas by Thursday and Friday. Aformentioned low pressure over
the southern shore of Hudson Bay will push a couple shortwaves
across the upper Great Lakes region resulting in chances of
showers and storms at times next week. No heavy rainfall or
severe weather is expected at this time, but evidence of
returning convection starting as early as overnight Tuesday
through Thursday. To early to message details, but will continue
to model possible impacts to the CWA with future model runs.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 158 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

IFR conditions at KCIU are expected to persist through the rest
of the afternoon before ceilings rise to MVFR after 00z...with
clouds expected to scatter out around midnight. MVFR ceilings at
KPLN/KAPN are expected to improve to VFR conditions after 00z as
clouds thin. KTVC/KMBL expected to remain VFR through
tonight...with clouds thickening Saturday morning with rain
moving in after 14z. Low level wind shear expected to develop
this evening once surface winds decouple.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for LHZ345>349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ341-
     342.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...JPB